Thursday, November 7, 2013

WEBSITE NOTICE

If you are wondering why there has been a significant lack in posts, it's because I am on a different website, PLEASE VISIT THIS LINK! - http://ssstormchasing.com/

Tuesday, October 29, 2013

Details On Possible Friday Severe T-Storm Threat

          It's been quite a long time since we have had even a possibility to see strong thunderstorms. But even though it's late October, Mother Nature has different plans! So lets get started with the overall setup. A very strong low pressure system out west, teaming up with strong winds aloft and a weak cape are all combining to build a very favorable atmosphere for severe thunderstorms. The chance of strong storms will mainly be in the southern part of our region, but it's a significant chance so we have to focus on it! The time frame looks to be during the afternoon on Friday, and the storms will likely move northeast or east. And with that, here is our forecast map for Friday's Severe T-Storm Threats!


Sunday, October 27, 2013

Halloween 2013 Weather Forecast

           Believe it or not, Halloween has rolled around again! For the past two years, we have had catastrophic storms that majorly impacted the Northeast US, so what it is in store for this Halloween? Believe it or not, it should be a very quiet Halloween. Although there is a chance for a few showers in Ohio, besides that it looks clear throughout the rest of the northeast. Temperatures should be in the upper 40's to upper 50's, which is unseasonably warm! Have a great Halloween 2013 everyone and stay safe! Here is our Halloween 2013 Weather Forecast map!



Saturday, October 19, 2013

This Week's First Flake Forecast

          Can you believe it's already late October? So now lets look back at the last two late October's as far as weather. Last year, we had Hurricane Sandy, one of the most devastating storms in weather history, and two years ago, we had a major snowstorm with areas as far south as the mason-dixon line seeing intense snows. But what is in-store for this year? There will be some wet snowflakes in areas that would normally see snow around this time of year, but we really don't know what is going to happen from the 27th through 31st.

          Generally the regions we expect to see snow this week are the mountainous areas and locations close to the lake. Obviously the parts of the northeast we expect to see the heaviest accumulations are the highest evaluations. It won't be anything big, but these snowflakes will just remind you that winter is on the way, and very soon! From there, we really don't know is going to happen, but at this point we are just going to leave this possibility of widespread snow out there, but the confidence of that is not big. Here is a map of areas that could see snow this week!


          We will continue to update you on the possibility of snow and will provide the latest snowfall forecast as we get closer to the event. Further more, don't forget to stay right here because if the newly made tradition continues, around Halloween, there will be a large snowstorm for widespread areas on the northeast. So stay right here, "Like" Northeast Weather Action on facebook, subscribe to Northeast Weather Action on YouTube. Thanks for reading and have a great rest of your day everyone!

Monday, October 14, 2013

Winter Is Almost Here, But Lets Take Our First Step!

          Can you believe it's already the middle of October, and it could snow around the area in less than a month! But lets not get ahead of our selves, we still have a quite a lot of fall left, and with that of course comes fall-like temperatures. I have said this before, but this time they are here to stay, obviously until winter. So what is to come in the next 10 days or so in weather?

          The answer will relieve many of you, and that is 40's, 50's, and 60's. Yes, that cool! For the next couple days, temperatures should be around average, but from there, everything literally goes down-hill, as far as temperatures. Every day starting Friday will drop about 2 degrees lower than the previous day. So here is what we expect as far as temperatures in about a week or so, these are the HIGHS for that day!

00Z EURO AT 168 HOURS FROM 10/14/13

Saturday, October 5, 2013

Wet Weather on the Way for the Northeast, and How Much? Find Out!

          Over the past several months, the weather conditions have been on the dry side, with the abnormally dry conditions that have been spreading across the area on the drought monitor, is any improvement of the way? Well actually, there is quite a bit of rainfall that will arrive late tomorrow, though Monday, and into the first half of Tuesday. But before we get on that situation, lets go back and take a look at the current drought monitor.


          As you can see, the majority of abnormally dry conditions have been in the southern, central, and eastern parts of the area. But enough of that, lets return to the upcoming rain topic. So where is this rainfall being produced from. First, there is a cold front traveling across the Ohio Valley right, now and will produce heavy rainfall along the frontal boundary. This will also arrive at nearly the same time as the remnants of Karen. Although the track of Karen is far south of the area, the cold front will funnel up the moisture into the southern parts of the region. Here is the 72 Hour Rainfall Totals Projection.


          As you can see, the heaviest rainfall will be in the western, and central parts of the northeast, with a little gap in the middle where there could be a lull in precipitation when there is rainfall on either sides of those locations, but not in that region. As you head east, a little less rainfall is expected because the rainfall from the cold front will not have as much coverage when it eventually meets the New England, Eastern New Jersey areas.

          Here are the timings of this event. Some moderate to heavy precipitation should be in Ohio and Michigan by later tomorrow afternoon. After that, the precipitation will travel into Pennsylvania, as well as Western and Central New York, by Monday Morning. But the heavier rainfall will likely not arrive in New York and Pennsylvania until later on Monday, into Monday Night. Continuing on, the rainfall will likely be steady across Ohio and Michigan. So the summary of all of this is, the rain is back, and on the noticeable side! Have a great rest of your weekend, and stay dry everyone!

Tropical Storm Karen Update: Long Term Effects

Tuesday, October 1, 2013

October 2013 Weather Forecast (Temperatures & Precipitation)

          As apposed to the abnormally dry conditions in the month of September (last month), this month should be slightly different. So lets get started with the temperature expectation. In the beginning of the month into the middle, above average temperatures should be anticipated cause by a large ridge, that will stay in place for the long term. But as for the end of the month, we expect cooler weather conditions to arrive, and are not quite yet ruling out that late October Snowstorm that we are used to seeing, for the past couple years. So to summarize the month, overall warmer conditions will rule with cooler conditions late. So with that said, here is our October 2013 Temperature Forecast.


          Now lets get back to the precipitation side of things. This October, near normal rainfall is on tap. But that could all be changed with one major rainstorm, which we could possibly have, so see that article involving that. But otherwise, there is not much to talk about, and we will see what plays out. This was your October 2013 Weather Forecast, thanks for reading and stay safe everyone!

Sunday, September 29, 2013

A Dry, Seasonal Start To The Week? Your Forecast Is Here!

          Here is your weather forecast for Monday September 30th, 2013, lets get started with the expected temperatures. Overall, we are looking at mainly 60's and 70's across the commonwealth with very isolated upper 50's as highs at higher mountain ranges. Compared to normal, these are seasonal temperatures just to say, in case you were wondering. So that's a wrap for the temperatures, now lets get into the rain that could dampen some plans. Well, there is not much to talk about at all, with the exception of a dissipated cold front causing a few scattered rain showers in the Ohio region. Here is the simulated radar for late tomorrow morning. There is not much to see to say the least.


          This has been your Monday September 30th, 2013 weather forecast, thanks for reading, stay safe and have a great start to your week everyone!

Tuesday, September 24, 2013

Could The Negative NAO Continue Into The Winter? Find Out!

          Over the past couple weeks, a negative NAO has been dominant. These are part of a group we call teleconnections, they have an impact on our temperatures, precipitation, and overall weather pattern. They are dictated by sea surface in a certain region. The NAO is short for North Atlantic Oscillation. This is an area of of water, in of course the Northern Atlantic, that has fluctuating sea surface temperatures. When the water in the area is cold, then we are in a phase called the Negative NAO. If the waters are are warmer than normal, we would be in a Positive NAO. Here is a graphic that details the weather conditions when we are in each of these phases.


          As you can see, when we are in a Negative NAO, we typically experience colder and snowier conditions across the Northeast US. When we are in a Positive NAO, we see warmer temperatures than normal. So now lets get to what this article is really about. Lately, we have been seeing a Negative NAO, which is why for the past two weeks, generally below average temperatures have been occurring in the region. We expect this pattern to continue into the winter, which would greatly impact on this winter, possibly enhancing the probability of an above average snowfall this winter, as well as cold temperatures. Here are the current NAO models for just the next two weeks, but like I said could possibly go on into the winter.



         As you can clearly see, we have been having colder water in the Northern Atlantic. Although it looks like we could return to a Neutral NAO. But then right after, if will likely fall right back down into the negative phase. I am not saying the NAO will be negative indefinitely for the whole fall and winter. Of course we could have some spikes where the NAO rises positive. But a Negative NAO definitely looks like it could continue in the long range. So this is a good factor that like that graphic indicates, a cold and snowy winter. Thanks for reading and don't forget, our 2013 - 2014 Winter Outlook: 3rd Update is going to be released this Saturday. Have a great and safe rest of your day!
          

Friday, September 20, 2013

A Wet Weekend Of Weather Is On Tap

          This week, it has been drier than we would expect with only a minimal probability of showers each day. So can we keep this luck into the weekend? The answer will disappoint most which is, no the rain is back in a big way. As a cold front moves through the region in the afternoon tomorrow, ahead of it will be some heavy rain.

          Locations such as the majority oh Ohio, Western & Central Pennsylvania, and Western New York will get dumped on. After that the intensity of the band of rain will calm down a little as it moves into New Jersey and New England by Sunday. So with that, here is the 36 Hour Rainfall Forecast. Have a great weekend!


Will Heavy Rain Ruin Your Weekend Plans? Find Out!

Tuesday, September 17, 2013

Is Fall Here For Good? Find Out!

          Over the past few days into today when you took a step out the door, it has felt more like October, which is of course next month. So why have the weather conditions been this cool? At first, over the weekend a cold front made it's way down from Canada, which held high temperatures across the area to a maximum of 70 degrees. But normally troughs only last for a couple days, and then are out of here. Well, yesterday a reinforcing shot of fall weather flew down from Canada and once again provided below average temperatures. Look at tonight, widespread 30's in most inland locations anywhere from the Mason - Dixon line of Pennsylvania and Maryland to Springfield, Massachusetts. In Burlington and Caribou, temperatures could drop down into the 20's, causing freezes in Northern New England and Northern New York.

          So the question comes with all of this and also just the time of year, if fall here for good? Well, the answer may upset some people including me, which is no, it's not. The end of this week will feature slightly warmer temperatures, possibly up in the upper 70's, depending on where you are located. But then, by Sunday and especially into Monday of next week, cooler temperatures are back. So when will the warmth return for longer than a few days? Well most likely the end of next week. A ridge in the central plains will likely take several days to move through the midwest and into the northeast US, but it will find it's way over here some way or another. Just like I said , this is a long way out, but we are very certain that fall will fade away eventually. Here is the GFS model showing warmer temperatures on Friday September 28th. The model says Saturday, but Saturday 00Z means later in the day on Friday.


          As you can see, this model shows widespread middle to upper 70's. Continuing on, it's not just this model that indicates late summer-like temperatures will be back. So  to wrap things up, just hang in there because it looks like this warm up won't last long, but we only have moderate confidence on that. remember to stay warm tonight though because in most regions of the area, if there was any precipitation it could snow tonight. But we are not expecting any of that just yet! If you have not seen our 2013 - 2014 Active Winter Storm Tracks Forecast, it's the post below this one and I encourage you to read it. Keep tuned to Northeast Weather Action for more interesting and useful weather updates, forecasts, and outlooks. Thanks for reading and have a great and safe rest of your day everyone!

Monday, September 16, 2013

Official 2013 - 2014 Active Winter Storm Tracks Forecast

          Here is our official 2013 - 2014 active winter storm tracks forecast. In this discussion, we will detail the expected popular storm tracks this upcoming winter. This analysis will feature the impacted areas of the track and what the storm typically brings with it into the effected regions. Some people think we are very far out from winter, but in a month and a half, we could possibe see snow if the yearly late October storm comes, so this is the official forecast. Lets get started!

Nor'easter

          A Nor'easter is the strongest impacting storm type, that can hit the US during the winter time. This storm typically forms in the Central Pacific, and moves to the northeast. After over land, the storm slams the effected regions with large amounts of precipitation. It commonly first hits the Northern Baja California Coast, and continues to move northeast for a few hundred miles, before making a turn to mainly to the east. It continues on the Mexico, US border until going back into the Western gulf of Mexico. Here, the storm strengthens by pulling in any gulf moisture it can get, before making a northeastward turn into the Northern Florida area. From here, it dumps heavy amounts of mainly rain across Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina, before making a northerly turn. After this act, it continues up the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic Coastlines, grabbing more moisture from the Atlantic and at the same time, impacting the states of South Carolina, North Carolina, and the Southern Virginia area. But during this time, the low pressure travels over a sea surface anomaly off the coast between Myrtle Beach and Ocean City, Maryland. This rapidly strengthens the storm system into a powerful winter storm. During this time, it tracks just off the Mid-Atlantic Coast, and dumps mainly rain in Eastern and Central North Carolina.

          Also, depending on the pattern situation, the precipitation type could transitions from rain to ice in Southern and Central Virginia. Now, at it's maximum capability, it slams the Del-Mar-Va with a mix of rain and snow, and hits inland portions of Northern Virginia, Central and Eastern Maryland, Central and Eastern Pennsylvania, all of New Jersey (Southern part could have mixed precipitation depending on temperature), Southeast New York, and Southern New England. The snowfall totals are usually significant in the range of 6 inches plus, depending on a few factors. Sometimes, this system can phase with a weaker low from the inland areas in the Mid-Atlantic, thus strengthening the system, and normally not throwing the main storm off track. Another factor is the temperatures, which could vastly impact the snow ratios, thus changing snow totals.

          The heaviest amounts of snow are normally in Southern New England. But sometimes, the heavier amounts can be further south. This is because there could be an intense trough that protects New England from seeing heavy precipitation from the system, and the storm could be shunted off the New Jersey, or Long Island Coast, with minimal effects on Southern New England. If the storm continues up the Northeast US Coastline, which it most of the time does, Central and Eastern Northern New England are also effected by heavy snow and blowing winds. Although the snow totals are still heavy in Northern New England, the area that normally sees the most snow out of Nor'easters is the Worcester Hills of Massachusetts. The lifespan of this severe winter storm normally is around 6 - 10 days, depending on speed and motion of the low pressure. There are about 2 or 3 of these type of storm systems per winter. This is the lifespan of the most famous and greatly impacting winter storm, the Nor'easter.

Total amount of expected Nor'easters for the upcoming 2013 - 2014 winter: 3 to 5; Above Average Activity

Alberta Clipper
       
          The Alberta Clipper is a common winter storm, but definitely not the most severe out of them all. The Alberta Clipper is what it sounds like, it typically originates in Alberta, which a region in the west part of Central Canada. After forming, it moves southeast, into the Northern Plain states. Here, it brings a light to moderate snowfall on our standards, meaning around 4 - 6 inches of the good stuff. After that point, the storm track usually bends more towards the east-southeast. The next cities in line are Milwaukee, Chicago, and Indianapolis. Precipitation type at this point typically remains primarily all snow, and drops around 3 - 5 on the stated cities. Although, sometimes in Indianapolis, ice is a factor in the forecast. This is what I would call, "The Halfway Point," in the storms life.

          Continuing on, the storm moves through the eastern sections of the Midwest, and enters the Ohio Valley, still holding a good 3 or 5 inches of snow. When the storm finally gets to the Northeast, it has weakened slightly, and sometimes only produces 2 - 4 inches in the Southern half of New York, Pennsylvania, Northern West Virginia, Northern Maryland, most of New Jersey, and far Southern New England. On occasions, the system will be stronger, and possibly produce upwards of 5 or 6 inches. This whole process generally takes about 5 days. Just to say, sometimes the storm system can be related with a cold front. The snow produced by this system is generally on the fluffy side, which is easier to shovel. There are normally around 3 to 5 Alberta Clippers every winter, Now you know as much as you need to know about the Alberta Clipper.

Total amount of expected Alberta Clippers for the upcoming 2013 - 2014 winter: 3 to 5; Average Activity

Colorado Low

          The Colorado Low is a storm that is beginning to become a bit more well known. What it is, is a storm that's forms in the Central Pacific, and moves directly east into the San Francisco area. Of course the precipitation type is all rain, until in moves into the higher elevations of the Sierra Nevada mountain ranges. This is where moderate to heavy amounts, usually about a foot of snow falls. It continues it's long lasting journey into the Nevada - Utah region. Here, it rains in the lowlands and snows in the highlands, which are mainly located in the Northern Arizona and Southern Utah locations. The snowfall amounts there usually total around a foot, depending on elevation. After that, the system moves into Southern Colorado, impacting the Central Rockies with heavy amounts of snow, normally the precipitation type is this area is all snow, just because the Colorado area is made of highlands and full of mountains. During this time period in the storms life span, it intensifies into a strong winter storm, which it why it's called a "Colorado Low." The snow totals are normally around 8 inches to a foot in the Colorado Springs, Denver region. Obviously depending on temperatures, which is associated with elevations.

          Next, the low pressure system travels into the Central Plains, and sometimes can be a wintry mix by now. This is because of the drop in elevation. For cities like Wichita and Kansas City, it can be an icy/snowy mix, depending on temperature. They normally see around 6 inches of snow and up to a quarter of an inch of ice! Then, the storm continues it's intense rage into the Midwest, where locations such as Chicago and St. Louis are impacted. Usually, Chicago sees mainly snow, while St. Louis could be having mixing issues. Snowfall totals in Chicago normally exceed 10 inches, and in St. Louis, as much as a half and inch of ice can accumulate, and then on top, another 2 to 6 inches of wet snow. Next comes the Ohio Valley, where things really get interesting. Heavy amounts of blowing snow are found in the Northern Indiana and the Northern Ohio areas. But when you move south into the Central And Southern portions of Indiana and Ohio, a common event for these people plays out. A major ice storm hits Indianapolis and Columbus with nearly an inch of ice. Meanwhile, Cincinnati is having mainly rain, with some mixed in ice. Totals here are not as significant, but still notable.

          The final step of this great winter storm now plays out as it moves into Central West Virginia, Northern Virginia, and Northern Maryland. Significant amounts of heavy snow pound Northern and Central Pennsylvania, Southern New York, and into Northern New Jersey. Snowfall totals here are close to 1 foot. But as you get down into Southern Pennsylvania, to Central and Southern New Jersey, mixing issues become a small problem. In South Central Pennsylvania, typically the precipitation type is mainly snow with a little sleet or ice. Snowfall amounts here are generally around 6 to 8 inches. As you head over to Southeast Pennsylvania, and over to Central and Southern New Jersey, it becomes more of a half an half deal. Now of course all of this depends on temperatures in the area at the time, but this is what will usually happen. In cities like Philadelphia and Atlantic City, snowfall totals are limited to about 3 to 5 inches. Sleet amounts are not much and rainfall amounts are around a quarter of an inch, depending on the intensity of the storm. But this is where things upset snow-lovers in New England. At this point, generally there is nothing to steer the low, and it goes out to sea. There are around 2 to 4 of these systems per winter, but some recent winter seasons saw more. This is the life cycle of the Colorado Low.

Total amount of expected Colorado Lows for the upcoming 2013 - 2014 winter: 3 to 5; Slightly Above Average Activity

Panhandle Cutter

          The Panhandle Cutter is a storm that does not have an impact on our region directly, but is a branch off of a storm track that does effect us. But lets go in detail about the Panhandle Cutter. The original storm forms in the Pineapple Express, an area around Hawaii that creates a storm about once a month during the winter. Then, the storm moves northeast, to the Northwest United States Coast. Here, the storm dumps heavy snow in the mountain areas of Oregon and Washington, and produces mainly rain in Portland, and sometimes a mix in Seattle. After this act, the storm changes movement to the southeast, and plows it's way down the center of the Rookies. During this time, it dumps as much as 3 to 4 feet of snow on the Rockies. Continuing on, the storm makes it's way down to the Texas Panhandle, where it throws as much as 8 inches of snow at cities like Amarillo. This is where sometimes the storm system can cut to the northeast, and make it's way through the South Central Plains.

          After hitting Southern Oklahoma and Dallas with mainly rain, and possibly some ice, the storm makes it's way through Arkansas. Here, an icy mess can occur depending on the temperature, in areas such as Little Rock, and sometimes Memphis, Tennessee. After that, the storm can impact St. Louis with a mix of ice and snow, snow totals are normally held to only about 4 - 6 inches around the southern Illinois and East Central Missouri area. But this is where things can get fun. The storm barrels it's way through the central part of Illinois, and into Chicago. In Chicago, strong winds and snowfall totals in excess of a foot are common. This is the end of the storms life cycle. Each year, we typically see around 1 or 2 or these type of storms. The snowfall produced by this storm is generally on the wetter side south, and the direr side near Chicago. Now you know everything you need to know about the Panhandle Cutter.

Total amount of expected Panhandle Cutters for the upcoming 2013 - 2014 winter: 2 to 3; Slightly Above Average Activity

Appalachian Runner

          Appalachian Runners are the last common storm to take place every winter. The take the same path as the Panhandle Cutters, until the Texas Panhandle. Here, they continue on with their journey and not travel into the Midwest US. They continue on their way through the southeast, laying mainly rain down for cities such as Jackson, Birmingham, and Atlanta. Sometimes in Atlanta and especially to the north of the city, some ice and snow can mix in, depending on temperatures at the time. After this occurs, the system moves up the eastern side of the Appalachian Mountains. This spreads heavy snow into the Appalachian Mountains of extreme Northern South Carolina, North Carolina, and Virginia. Snow totals normally amount to as much as a foot on the highest peeks of the mountains. The normal snowfall on about a 3000 foot mountain in this area is generally about 8 inches, depending on the temperature, which would control snowfall ratios.

          Precipitation type is normally rain for cities like Raleigh. For Roanoke, a mix of snow and ice is often expected out of an Appalachian Runner. After this, the storm moves northeast into West Virginia, Central and Western Virginia, Central and Western Maryland, and Central and Western Pennsylvania. The average snowfall in the mountains of these areas is around a foot. In the regions where the elevations are between 400 - 1000 feet, snowfall around 4 - 8 inches is generally expected, for cities like Hagerstown and Harrisburg. For Baltimore and Washington DC, normally rain is the overall precipitation type with some mixed ice and sleet for a short period. Then, the storm moves north into Northern Pennsylvania and the highlands of Central and Eastern New York. In these regions, all snow is the usual precipitation type because of high elevation and great snowfall ratios. Snowfall totals are typically between 12 and 18 inches in this storm. The snowfall is usually a drier snow, except in the lower elevations of South Central Pennsylvania, where a normal, slightly wet snow would be expected.  These storms usually occur around 1 time a winter. These are all the details about the unique Appalachian Runner.

Total amount of expected Appalachian Runners for the upcoming 2013 - 2014 winter: 1 to 2; Slightly Above Average Activity

          So you have just read all of the details about what we should expect the most active storm tracks to be for the upcoming 2013 - 2014 Winter. I hope you managed to read at least a few sections of this forecast if not the entire article. Here is our official 2013 - 2014 Winter storm Tracks graphic. The lines are colored as the titles of each storm are. Thanks for reading and have a great, safe rest of your day!


Saturday, September 14, 2013

7 Day Weather Forecast (Temperatures & Precipitation)

          Over the next week of weather, we will have a fall-like pattern. So lets jump right into the temperatures. In the next 2 days, an exiting though will allow temperatures to reach the upper 60's to middle 70's, obviously depending on location. By Tuesday, a reinforcing cold shot will fly down from Canada, packing more cooler temperatures, meaning highs on Tuesday will most likely only reach 70 in most locations across the northeast. By the later part of next week, a ridge will build in from the central plains, bringing warmer temperature along with it of course.

          Now I would have to say, it will only bring our temperatures back to average at best for a few days, before more cold air flows down in about 10 days. But the temperatures will be most below average in the inland portions or our region, where the through will be centered for a couple days. By the coastal regions of our region, slightly below normal temperatures to just average temperatures will be common in the next 7 days. Here is the 7 day temperature forecast comparison to normal.


          Lets jump to the precipitation side of things now. Overall, the Northeast US will see below average precipitation in the middle of it, with slightly below average precipitation on the eastern and western parts of the area. The only spots likely to see slightly above average precipitation will be the western half of Ohio. Of course, any precipitation that fall in our region will be rainfall, except maybe on Mt.Washington, but I would have to say not many people live there. The pattern will be pretty persistent for the next week, which is why there is not much to talk about in terms of rain. So here is the 7 day precipitation forecast: comparison to normal.


Wednesday, September 11, 2013

Any Cooler Temperatures Down The Pipeline? Find Out!

          Today and yesterday were days that nobody likes. Can you guess why besides political issues, THE HEAT! Widespread 80's and 90's have been the most common temperature. Which as you know, is summer-like, and we are all tired of summer, so that's enough of this nonsense. Tomorrow will be the last day of this heat, before a major cool down is here! By Friday, highs will be held to the 60's and lower 70's everywhere around the region. At night, temperatures will get down to the 30's and 40's also around the area. Ooh yea, that's just the start of the good news. On Saturday, temperatures will be in the upper 50's north will lower the lower 60's in the southern mountains. In the Big cities such as Boston, New York, and Philly, temperatures won't even hit the 70 degree mark.

          This pattern will continue into the majority of next week, with once again temperatures stuck in the upper 60's to middle 70's as highs across the Northeast US. This all is a reasult of a cold front digging down from central and eastern Canada, that will hold temperatures down. After that, a reinforcing shot of cold air will race it's way into the northeast on Tuesday. With all of this occuring, below normal temperatures should prevail until the ridge in the Central US moves east, and brings our temperatures back up to the middle and upper 70's to 80's. That is in the longer range, but will likely play out. I am not saying it will get even close to how hot it is now during that period of time, but what I'm trying to say is enjoy this cool down while it lasts. Here is a GFS model hour where I think best forecasts the high temperatures for Sunday through Thursday of next week. Thanks for reading and have a great, safe rest of your day!

Monday, September 9, 2013

The Heat Is Back! How Long Will It Last? Find Out!

          Over the past several weeks, us here in the Northeast have been seeing either average or slightly below average temperatures. It has not really been that hot, and it looks like the stretch is coming to a close today. Tomorrow through Thursday will feature temperatures in the lower 80's - low 90's region-wide. Tomorrow, the heat will generally be confined to the southern and western parts of the region. This is because of a warm front that will enter the area through Ohio, West Virginia, and Virginia, and move northeast. So with that, the southern and southwestern parts of our region will be seeing middle to upper 80's tomorrow, with lower 80's in the mountains. For the rest for the northeast, temperatures should mainly be from the middle 70's to the lower 80's.

          By Wednesday, the entire Northeast US will be under our nice ridge. You know what that means, summer is back. Temperatures on Wednesday are expected to exceed 90 degrees in some areas in the southern and coastal locations of our region. Inland, although it won't be as warm, temperatures will still be in the 80's, or about 5 - 10 degrees warmer than where we should be at this time of year. Wednesday will be the hottest day of the warm up, and will be the hottest day remaining in 2013. By Friday and Saturday, temperatures will be back into the mid 60's to mid 70's. Here is the GFS showing Wednesday's highs. The model could be overdoing it but either way I would say it's a pretty good depiction. Thanks for reading and have a great rest of your Wednesday!



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Tuesday, September 3, 2013

Cold Nights Ahead For The Northeast

          Unlike many articles about summer weather here in the northeast, we are going to talk about some cold nights ahead for the region, even though it's still summer! Lets start with tonight and tomorrow night, even though it won't be that cold either night.. What we should expect is widespread 50's and lower 60's. Areas in the north, continuing into the mountains should dip down into the upper 40's and lower 50's tonight. Next, for cities like Worcester, MA, down to Scranton, PA, to Harrisburg, PA, and to Hagerstown, MD, temperatures should lower into the middle to upper 50's tonight. Lastly, locations like the Boston, New York City, Philadelphia, and D.C. areas, temperatures will be in the lower 60's.

          Now keep in mind that last paragraph was focusing on only tonight's and tomorrow nights temperatures, not Thursday or Friday night. Lets move over to Thursday Night's expected lows. This will be the coldest night of them all, and the temperature range will be very large. In cities such as Burlington, VT, down to Syracuse, NY, and over to Bradford, PA temperatures should be very cold, reaching the upper 30's and lower 40's in most spots. That will be the coldest region, now for the second coldest area. In cities like once again Worcester, MA, Scranton, PA, Harrisburg, PA, and Hagerstown, MD, temperatures should fall to the low to middle 40's. But for locations by the coast meaning Boston, New York, and Baltimore, temperatures will only get down to the low to mid 50's. Here is the GFS showing the expected low temperatures Thursday Night.



          The summary for temperatures Friday Night is slightly warmer than Thursday Night, but still colder than tonight and tomorrow night. So what you were supposed to get out of this is fall is on the way and of course, your forecast. Thanks for reading and have a great and safe rest of your day!

Monday, September 2, 2013

Drier Pattern Taking Over The Region


I discuss the drier conditions that will be with us here in the Northeast, Great Lakes, and Mid-Atlantic for the next several days. Don't miss it and please subscribe!

Brand New Severe Thunderstorm Watch In Effect


 WOUS64 KWNS 021915
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   BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 510
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   320 PM EDT MON SEP 2 2013

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 510 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDT
   FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

   NYC007-011-015-017-023-025-033-035-041-043-045-049-053-057-065-
   067-069-075-077-089-095-097-099-101-105-107-109-117-123-
   030200-
   /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0510.130902T1920Z-130903T0200Z/

   NY 
   .    NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

   BROOME               CAYUGA              CHEMUNG             
   CHENANGO             CORTLAND            DELAWARE            
   FRANKLIN             FULTON              HAMILTON            
   HERKIMER             JEFFERSON           LEWIS               
   MADISON              MONTGOMERY          ONEIDA              
   ONONDAGA             ONTARIO             OSWEGO              
   OTSEGO               SCHOHARIE           SCHUYLER            
   SENECA               ST. LAWRENCE        STEUBEN             
   SULLIVAN             TIOGA               TOMPKINS            
   WAYNE                YATES               


   PAC015-023-027-031-033-035-037-047-053-065-069-079-081-083-093-
   097-103-105-109-113-115-117-119-121-123-127-131-030200-
   /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0510.130902T1920Z-130903T0200Z/

   PA 
   .    PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

   BRADFORD             CAMERON             CENTRE              
   CLARION              CLEARFIELD          CLINTON             
   COLUMBIA             ELK                 FOREST              
   JEFFERSON            LACKAWANNA          LUZERNE             
   LYCOMING             MCKEAN              MONTOUR             
   NORTHUMBERLAND       PIKE                POTTER              
   SNYDER               SULLIVAN            SUSQUEHANNA         
   TIOGA                UNION               VENANGO             
   WARREN               WAYNE               WYOMING             


   LOZ043-044-045-063-064-065-SLZ022-024-030200-
   /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0510.130902T1920Z-130903T0200Z/

   CW 

   .    ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE

   HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY NY 

   SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY NY 

   MEXICO BAY NY TO THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER 

   HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY NY BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORELINE TO
   US-CANADIAN BORDER 

   SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY NY BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORELINE TO
   US-CANADIAN BORDER 

   MEXICO BAY NY TO THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORELINE
   TO US-CANADIAN BORDER 

   ST. LAWRENCE RIVER ABOVE OGDENSBURG NY 

   ST. LAWRENCE RIVER FROM OGDENSBURG TO ST. REGIS NY 

   ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...BTV...ALY...



Aviation Watch (SAW) for WW510
WW0510 Overview Image
Note: The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area. The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
   SAW0 
   WW 510 SEVERE TSTM NY PA LO 021920Z - 030200Z
   AXIS..80 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
   90ENE ART/WATERTOWN NY/ - 20SE DUJ/DUBOIS PA/
   ..AVIATION COORDS.. 70NM E/W /30SSE MSS - 29W PSB/
   HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..55 KNOTS.
   MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 28035.

   LAT...LON 44477270 40957709 40958016 44477595

   THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA.  FOR A
   COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
   FOR WOU0.

Friday, August 30, 2013

Thoughts On 2014 Farmers Almanac Winter Outlook

          Here are my thoughts on this year's Farmers Almanac 2014 Winter Outlook. First of all whoever has not seen it yet, here is the summary. Cold, cold, and colder, this years Farmers Almanac Winter Outlook includes widespread below average temperatures thought all regions of the Lower 48. But the areas with the coldest temperatures (most below average), are located anywhere from the northern plains to the Great Lakes and into the northeast. For the rest of the country, mainly chilly conditions are what they expect for the upcoming winter.

          So lets go region-by-region, and I will express my opinion as well as compare their outlook to my newest one.

Northeast Region

          Farmers Almanac 2014 Winter Outlook: Bitterly Cold & Snow Filled for the majority of the area with Cold, Wet, and White Conditions in the south and New Jersey. Mainly just Cold and White because Southern PA, and New Jersey, as well as extreme Southern New England are all in northern areas of the Cold, Wet, and White section. So that is there prediction, now lets compare. Overall there outlook is similar to mine, I don't know if it will be bitter, but in my opinion the temperatures this winter will be below average. In my opinion, us here in the Northeast US will be about 15 - 30 inches above average from normal in terms of snowfall.

Southeast Region

          Farmers Almanac 2014 Winter Outlook: Chilly & Wet. I agree is some ways with their outlook but not completely. I do not think the Southeast US will be that chilly, but i do think they will see wetter conditions with more mountain snow than normal. I believe there could be temperature swings down in the southeast, and this really depends on whether the Southeast Ridge forms or not. If it does occur, the Southeast will generally have above average temperatures, of course effecting the overall winter turnout. So I think the Farmers Almanac 2014 Winter Outlook did an ok job for predicting the southeast, but I definitely have some disagreements. 

Great Lakes Region
   
          Farmers Almanac 2014 Winter Outlook: Biting Cold & Snowy. For this area of the United States, I think they did pretty well. I agree, it will be colder than normal in the Great Lakes region, maybe not Biting Cold, but it will be cold. Here comes the detailed part, lets get into snowfall expectations for the Great Lakes area. I predict about average lake effect snowfall. For the remainder of the area, I think there will be above average snowfall/precipitation in Illinois and Southern Wisconsin, but the rest of the area will be anywhere from average to possibly slightly above average snowfall.

North Central Plains Region

          Farmers Almanac 2014 Winter Outlook: Piercing Cold With Normal Snowfall. I now agree with this area the most out of any region. I think it will be cold in this area, maybe not piercing cold, but it will be cold n the northern central plains. I do think they will also see generally around average snowfall, but the extreme northern part of the northern part of the northern plains could be see slightly below normal snowfall. So I agree for the most part with their predictions, so I think they did an ok job!

South Central Plains Region 

          Farmers Almanac 2014 Winter Outlook: Frosty & Unusually Wet. For this area, I would say the Farmers Almanac did ok. With the frosty part, I think this is where they went overboard on the cold. I forecast average temperatures for the southern plains. Once again, I also predict that this area will have temperature swings, meaning sometimes it will be warmer and other times the area will see colder temperatures than normal. For precipitation, I agree with them with above average precipitation, but possibly not unusually. Overall as you have heard, I think the Farmers Almanac has a very extreme outlook for this winter.

Southwest Region:

          Farmers Almanac 2014 Winter Outlook: Cool With Near-Normal Precipitation. I agree mainly with this outlook, but have a few disagreements. I completely disagree with the cooler temperatures than normal part. What I predict is slightly above average temperatures, instead of below average. To hear why, just watch my new update of the winter outlook. Now for precipitation, I see above average precipitation in the Southwest US because I anticipate the southern stream to be active. This in which would prompt above average precipitation in the southwest, and really the southern parts of the southwest.

Northwest Region:

          Farmers Almanac 2014 Winter Outlook: Dry & Chilly. Lets start with the drier conditions they expect. What I predict is around average precipitation for the Northwest US. For the temperatures, I could agree with them, but really I predict the Pacific Northwest to see around average temperatures. I do think there are still some impotent factors/teleconnections that will determine whether the northwest and even the whole US sees above or below average temperatures/precipitation.

          So with everything I have said and what you now know about what the Farmers Almanac Predicts for the upcoming winter season, here is there official 2014 Winter Outlook!
          

       

Wednesday, August 28, 2013

Upcoming Pattern Could Lead To Long Term Cool Temperatures

          In the next several days, temperatures will remain about average, but as we head into next week, a new pattern is likely to set up that could but stubborn and last potentially quite a while. By the early part of next week, troughs will begin flowing down from Eastern Canada and effect the region. This will bring below normal temperatures to the Great Lakes and Northeastern United States for a quite a while because they will just continue to dip don into the area. There could be a day or two between jet stream/trough where we go back to average temperatures, but you won't have to wait long for another trough to find it's way down here.

          This is because of a few reasons, one if the NAO and AO are dropping negative, causing us to receive cooler temperatures and also because the high pressure system in the west in very persistent, and will likely not expand to grant us warm conditions like it recently did. Temperatures will likely be held to the 50's north and in the mountains to middle 60's in the south and lower elevations regions as highs. At night, temperatures could get into the 30's in the north and the 40's south, which is much below average from where we should be. Here is a map showing next week's weather pattern that could likely stick around for an extended period of time.

Tuesday, August 27, 2013

Tomorrow's Weather Forecast

          The past few days have been pretty quiet in terms of weather, except a few heavy bands of rain yesterday. But tomorrow will feature the best chance for the whole region to see some rain. On Wednesday we should should expect scattered thunderstorms across the region. Some of the storms could be a little on the strong side, so remember to bring that umbrella with you especially if you will be doing anything outside. Temperatures should be in the 70's and 80's region wide. So thanks for reading and have a great rest of your evening/day. Stay safe everyone!

Monday, August 26, 2013

A Significant Cool Down Possible In The Long Range

          In the seven days, temperatures will generally be around average, but after that comes a chance for some fall-like air. Several troughs look to dip down from Eastern Canada, and effect the Northeast and Eastern Great Lakes in the long range. All through some troughs may not be all that intense and only effect the extreme northeast portions of our area, others will have a significant impact on our temperatures and most likely make things feel a little bit more like fall, as mentioned earlier. So lets get a little bit more in depth of what I am trying to get at.

          In the beginning of September, or to be specific around September 2nd or 3rd, and intense trough could likely stretch down into the Eastern US, bringing temperatures as cold as the middle to upper 40's to the middle 50's at night throughout the area. For the daytime highs, temperatures will likely be held to only the upper 50's and lower 60's in the northern and in the mountains regions of the northeast, to the middle to upper 60's in the southern and Piedmont locations. Now keep in mind this is still very far out, but is most likely going to occur in some way or another.

          Temperatures are much easier to predict especially in this case, rather then precipitation. The duration of this cool down is still unknown and it's possible that it won't even get this cool, but who knows, it could get even cooler.. So really be sure to stay tuned to Northeast Weather Action because this forecast is for the longer range, and many details are still in question. Here is a model hour map indicating the cooler air, produced by the most recent euro which is one of our most reliable models, as some of you may know from previous posts/forecast. Thanks for reading and have a great rest our your day or night!

Wednesday's Severe Thunderstorm Threat Outline

        This summer has been much below average in terms of severe weather and in the foreseeable future, nothing looks to be that significant. For most people including me, this is a good thing, because here in the northeast, we are not big fans of. On Wednesday, there could be a threat of some strong thunderstorms, but it won't be any outbreak at all, and likely will not impact many people here in the northeast.

         Overall the summary is that scattered thunderstorms will be across the northeast region, especially Ohio, West Virginia, Western New York, and Western Pennsylvania. Some of these storms will be on the stronger side, and could produce strong winds in excess of 60 mph, cloud-to-ground lightning, and isolated small hail the size of quarters. Here is a map forecast detailed where your area is located on our exclusive Severe Thunderstorm Threat Index. Stay safe and have a great rest of your day!


Friday, August 23, 2013

2013 - 2014 Winter Outlook - 2nd Update Summary

          This year's 2013 - 2014 Winter Outlook - 2nd Update will be the most detailed winter outlook released this year yet. It will feature the following:

- August 2013 Plume of ENSO Models Graphic
- August 2013 Jamstec Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly Graphic
- Updated CFS v2 z200 Model Graphic(s)
- Updated GFDL z200 Model Graphic
- Positive PNA Pattern Effects Graphic
- NAO Pattern Effects Graphic
- Sunspot Cycles (With Predictions) Graphic
- Composite Temperature Anomalies Graphic
- Temperature Anomaly Graphic
- 2013 - 2014 Winter Outlook - 2nd Update Temperatures Outlook Graphic
- 2013 - 2014 Winter Outlook - 2nd Update Precipitation Outlook Graphic
- 2013 - 2014 Winter Outlook - 2nd Update Snowfall Outlook Graphic
- 2013 - 2014 Winter Outlook - 2nd Update Storm Tracks Outlook Graphic
- Common Storm Track(s) Animation Graphics
- 2013 - 2014 Winter Outlook - 2nd Update Overall Winter Expectations Graphic
- 2013 - 2014 Winter Outlook - 2nd Update Contributing Factors Graphic
- Possible Radar Image(s) Graphics
- Thanks For Watching/Notice Graphics
- Winter Outlook Schedule Graphic

Monday, August 19, 2013

Upcoming Warm Up Details and What We Are Expecting After The Warm Up

          It has been quite a while since we have had a warm up, but it appears as that streak will be shattered by a ridge that will overtake the Lower 48. Temperatures will be overwhelmingly warm across the west as they already have been, but for temperatures here in the Northeast US, we should only expect 90 as a maximum and most likely nothing more. This all will likely start tomorrow with the upper 70's in the northern part of the area to the middle 80's in the southern locations of the region. By Wednesday we should be having widespread 80's and as high as 90.

          Just to say, because many people care about this factor, It also could be a little on the humid side of things because of the chance of thunderstorms. Wednesday and Thursday will definitely be the warmest days but by Friday, a trough will dig down into the northeast from Eastern Canada and provide slightly cooler air that will likely hold highs down into the 80's at most. In the longer range, after the warm up we should expect temperatures to return back to after average. Here is the Climate Prediction Center's 8 - 14 Day Temperature Outlook. So thanks for reading, keep cool during this warm and have a great rest of your day.


Friday, August 16, 2013

Everything You Need To Know About Invest 92L (Forecast/Projection/Effects/All Details)

          We have been watching Invest 92L for several days now, and it looks like this system could start to get it's act together sometime very soon. During the day today, the low exited the Central America mainland, and moving at this time, northwest into the Western Gulf. The system will change direction within the day or early tomorrow, to more of a northerly track. By tomorrow, the storm could be a tropical depression, or even potentially a very low end tropical storm, which would be named Fernand. On Sunday, the system will likely be centered about 300 miles southeast of Brownsville, Texas. At this point the forecast is for by 5 PM Sunday, we should have Tropical Storm Fernand with winds at 5 PM Sunday at around 45 - 50 mph.

          Overall between the next 36 and 60 hours, rapid strengthening is anticipated with the low pressure system, which would mean a confined circulation within the system with deep thunderstorms flaring up. Right now, the majority of the thunderstorm activity with Invest 92L is located east of the center. This is because of the dry air on the western side of the storm. Lets continue with the expected track and strength of this system. By the early morning hours on Monday, which would be around 60 hours out from now, we will be at the strongest point of the storm. The expect maximum sub-stained winds with the system 60 hours from now will likely be anywhere from 50 to 60 mph with gusts possibly as high as 65 or 70 mph.

          But at this time the storm is nearing landfall, and will likely be about 250 miles east of Corpus Christi, Texas. The system will likely be moving north-northwest at this time, and about 200 - 250 miles from landfall. At Monday, 5 PM, the storm will likely be just several miles, meaning about 50 miles from landfall. The expected landfall time frame is between Monday afternoon and midnight Tuesday. The most northern track would be for this storm to make landfall around or just north of Houston. The locations with the highest threat of landfall are Galveston Bay and Corpus Christi. More than likely Galveston Bay. Now don't worry, this won't be anything like Ike in 2008, and this won't even be a hurricane. At landfall, the system will likely pack winds between 50 and 60 mph.

          The state with the highest risk of a landfall tropical storm is definitely Texas. The probability of this storm hitting Mexico or Louisiana is about 20%. But this is still some questions to be answered and this projection is still out there in terms of how correct it will be. Overall, if the system moves in a west-northwesterly track, the conditions are more favorable for development, and if the low moves north-northwest, then the conditions become less conducive for development or any strengthening. This is one variable, because at this time we are expecting the storm to at first move west-northwest, which would encourage strengthening within the system. After that, we expect the low to generally move west-northwest as previously stated, which would mean it might not strengthen as much or at all. Real quick, some effects or a 50 - 60 mph tropical storm making landfall would/will be moderate beach erosion, obviously strong winds, about 5 - 8 feet storm serge, and of course heavy rains.

           At this time, we shouldn't expect any evacuation to occur, and the hurricane gates along the coast most likely will not be closed. So over the next few days, you will certainly need to monitor this storm, because anytime now this low could be named Tropical Depression #6. It would be named TD #6 because it would be the sixth tropical depression of the Atlantic Hurricane Season. A few places that currently and will continue to provide up to the minute updates, forecasts, and projections on Invest 92L are of course of Tropical Alerts section, which provides models displaying track, strength, and the possible timings. Another resource where you can see updates on this system is of course the National Hurricane Center, and Spaghettimodels.com, which is generally for more advanced forecasters. So just stay tuned to the places I just named and if you live in the possibly effected areas, or anywhere in the path of this storm, make precautions now or very soon. Thanks for reading and please keep an eye on this system, as it will likely be the first land falling medium to even high end Tropical Storm. Have a great rest of your day and stay safe everyone!


         

A Warmup Is On The Way? But For How Long? Find Out!


We do have a warmup coming but watch the video to find out how warm/hot things will get and when the warmup will come to a close.

Thursday, August 15, 2013

Is Summer Really Over? Find Out!

          Is summer really over, a question being asked by many people across the northeast this week as below normal temperatures have been causing fall-like thoughts to come into peoples minds. Well the summer is not over yet, because in a few days the temperatures will make a comeback, rebounding into the 80's in most locations across the northeast. The warmest air will flow into the area by the early through middle parts of next week bringing like I said, widespread 80's throughout the region. 

          So summer is not over and the tropics are also proving that. If you would like to see everything you need on the tropics, just go to the Tropical Alerts tab. Thanks for reading and have a great rest of your day. Here is a model showing the expected highs during the summer warmth next week. Stay safe everyone!


Today's Weather Forecast (8/15/13)

          Today will have a very short weather forecast, mainly because there is nothing to talk about. So lets start with the forecast weather conditions, partly cloudy skies will mainly be the general sky cover around the region with a very small chance of a shower anywhere. The start of the weekend will be very quiet, and that gives us time to track the tropics. If you didn't notice the background of the page yet, that's what we are focusing on here at Northeast Weather Action.

          Today's high temperatures should be in the lower 70's in the mountains to the upper 70's in the southern Piedmont areas. That's the temperatures for today, but stay tuned because in only about a week our 2013 - 2014 Winter Outlook - 2nd Update will be released. Next, don't forget to stay right here for every update on the tropics. Thanks for reading and stay safe everyone, have a great rest of your day.

Wednesday, August 14, 2013

Tropical Update - August 14th, 2013

          The tropics have been calm for the past several weeks, ever since Dorian. But they look to activate once again with currently two areas of interest in the tropical Atlantic. Lets start with the most important and impacting system, which is closer to home, especially in the southeast. An area of disturbed weather located in the Eastern Caribbean, is rather quickly moving northwest, will be impacted by land in the next day or two, and then will likely move back into the western Gulf of Mexico.

          During it's time in the Gulf of Mexico, some strengthening may occur to the low pressure system, but it won't have much time to strengthen. The expected track is it to at first move northwest, and then after being impacted by Central America, curve to more of a northerly track. This particular system has a good chance if making some kind of landfall in the Texas through Alabama area. The intensity at landfall is still very much undetermined.

          According to the National Hurricane Center, that tropical system has about a 70% chance of forming into a tropical entity. We will keep you updated on every new development on that storm system. Now lets get to the next system, which is now as off 11:00 PM on Wednesday Night, Tropical Depression #5. This depression is moving west-northwest at about 15 mph, and will likely change to just a western movement in a couple days.

          We will have lots of time to track this syetem, but at this point it looks like it will be Dorian #2, possibly. But I mentioned this in my August Tropical Forecast, that the northern area of where tropical systems normally are in the Eastern and Central Atlantic, would be active. But anyway thanks for reading and stay tuned to Northeast Weather Action for the latest weather updates.

NOTICE: THE TROPIAL UPDATE PAGE WILL GO BACK ON TROPICAL ALERT, AND WILL INCLUDE EVERYTHING YOU NEED FOR THESE TWO TROPICAL INTERESTS, DEVELOPMENTS.

Sunday, August 11, 2013

Monday - Wednesday Weather Forecast (8/12/13 - 8/14/13)

          This forecast is going to be short and to the point to start with. Generally on Monday, which could be tomorrow or today depending on when you read this, will feature mainly sunny skies with more clouds south with a possible shower south of New York City. Temperatures on Monday will be in the middle to upper 70's inland to lower 80's closer to the coast. Now of course the sea breeze will cool the immediate coast down. But that is the forecast for tomorrow, now lets get to Tuesday.

          Tuesday will be the wettest day of this short term, three day forecast. A low will effect the northeast with some showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday with mainly cloudy skies across the region. Temperatures on Tuesday will likely be in the 70's mostly with a few lower 80's on Tuesday. So really you should just pretty much expect around the same temperatures both Monday as well as Tuesday.

          Last but not least, here is the forecast for Wednesday. We will likely have a mixed bag on Wednesday. Temperatures should be cooler in Ohio, New York, West Virginia, Virginia, Pennsylvania, and Maryland. Highs in those states should only top out in the upper 60's to middle 70's with possibly upper 70's in Philly, but besides that is will be cooler than normal. In New Jersey, Delaware, and New England, temperatures should top out in the upper 70's, with obviously cooler temperatures in Northern Maine.

          But really temperatures will be more below average more in the states that mainly don't touch the ocean. Weather on Wednesday should be mainly sunny, with a few clouds possible anywhere. Also, just to note mountain locations in any state will likely be in the middle 60's to low 70's, depending on elevation. So that's a wrap to your three day forecast, thanks for reading. Don't forget to stay tuned to Northeast Weather Action for the latest weather updates, forecast, and outlooks. Stay safe and have a great rest of your day!

P.S. - Normal Posting will resume on Wednesday Night.

Saturday, August 10, 2013

Your Weekend Weather Forecast (8/10/13 - 8-11/13)

          This weekend will not continue the streak of rainy Saturday's. Today will likely feature dry weather all around the region with a few showers possible in the far south, for cities like Baltimore and Washington D.C., also overall Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, and West Virginia, as well as Southern Ohio. But the majority of the heavier rainfall that has been going on in the south, as you may have heard about, will stay in the south. That's right, we don't need anything more that could possibly delay us, just leave that up to New York City traffic!

          The skies will be mainly blue with a little white mixed in earlier in the day, especially in New England, because of the exiting storm system. Now for your Sunday, well this may be the most boring forecast to ever read for the northeast in your lifetime, that's right this could even break the records for one of the most simple forecasts ever predicted! Sunny, and a few clouds on Sunday is expected with a minimal chance of rain, enough said! Ooh wait, we can't forget the temperatures, because with a weekend like this, they should be the only weather related concern on your mind.

           If you don't believe me right now when I'm saying this, just wait until later, in the afternoon and evening. Anyways the temperatures will be once again, ever so slightly above normal with lower 80's for Southern New England both days, and as you got further south, meaning anywhere from New York, to Philly, to Baltimore, expect middle to even upper 80's also of course on both your day today and tomorrow. As you go further inland, mainly lower 80's today with upper 70's for Sunday. Now it could be slightly cooler Sunday, just to say, but no major change.

           To say the least, this weekend is the most summer-like weekend left this year, no questions asked. You can't ask more out of mother nature if you wanted summer weather than 80's and almost completely sunny. That is generally the summary for what we are expected in terms of weather for the weekend. So everyone don't forget to stay tuned to Northeast Weather Action for the latest weather updates, forecasts, and outlooks. Thanks for reading and stay safe and don't forget to enjoy the last ad possible most ideal summer weekend of 2013!

Thursday, August 8, 2013

Long Range Lookout: Fall-Like Temperatures and A Wetter Pattern? Find Out!

          It's already almost the middle of August, if you didn't catch up with reality yet! Fall is almost here and the temperatures are getting ahead of themselves. With temperatures only topping out at the lower 80's and soon to only be the upper 70's you might as well say it's September outside. Areas in Northern New York and Northern New England are only getting to the upper 60's. So what is ahead for us and all of the US? Very good question for you to ask!

          It looks like the same weather precipitation is on the way. Temperatures could rise in about a week right before the fall right back down to the 70's and 60's. So it looks like you might as well jump into the pool right now to get used to the water, because it won't be going back up until next year. There really is no huge warm up in sight. So I am sorry but it looks like '13 summer is slowly disappearing. Now I am not saying I can promise you that, but that is what it sure looks like.

          But lets look at the precipitation side of things. Really it looks like the precipitation will continue to be above average with lows just coming and coming. Luckily they are not to strong. So the overall pattern is on the slightly below average temperatures and above average precipitation. Aahh, perfect for winter! Here is a graphic created to show the pattern over the next 10 days. Thanks for reading and stay tuned to Northeast Weather Action for the latest weather updates, forecasts, and outlooks. Have a great rest if your day and stay safe everyone!


Today's Weather Forecast (8/8/13)

          Today will most likely have the same overall weather conditions as yesterday. This is with the exception of the temperatures. But lets start with what we should expect in terms of weather today. Today will feature mostly cloudy skies region-wide with some showers and thunderstorms moving east across the area. If you are to get caught under one, it will likely pack a punch bringing a quick half inch to inch of rain in less than an hour. Really everywhere in the region has an ok chance of seeing showers and storms. Some storms could be on the stronger side with damaging winds as the main threat, with some isolated small hail. But these storms will likely move quick so they will not last that long as a result.

          Now lets talk about the temperatures side of things. Today will most likely hold for the first time in almost two weeks, above average temperatures! Which for some people is not the greatest thing to hear, but for others is a bit of a relief and reminds everyone it's still summer. Temperatures will top out in the middle 70's in the north to the middle - upper 80's in the south. Here is the future-cast radar at 5 PM. This is your weather forecast for today, thanks for reading and stay tuned to Northeast Weather action for the latest weather updates, forecasts, and outlooks. Thanks for your time and stay safe everyone!



Wednesday, August 7, 2013

Tomorrow's Thunderstorm Expectations: Will You See Storms?

          Over the past month or two, I can't really remember the last time we even had an even moderate severe thunderstorm threat since maybe May. But this streak is to end because tomorrow will hold a threat of storms that will put some areas in a high threat on are exclusive severe weather threat graphic. Overall the whole region will have somewhat of a threat with the higher threats for strong thunderstorms mainly inland with the exception of Maine, but leaving out Northern Ohio.

          The main threats are damaging winds in excess of 60 mph and small hail as big as golf ball size hail, but that would likely be in Ohio and West Virginia. The risk of a tornado is pretty low and the probability of a tornado occurring anywhere here in the Northeast is about 5%. So tomorrow will be the first day in a while with a noticeable threat of t-storms. A few Severe Thunderstorm Watches are possible but likely no Tornado Watches will be issued tomorrow. The graphic showing tomorrow's severe thunderstorm threats for tomorrow is below. Thanks for reading, stay safe and have a great rest of your day!


Today's Weather Forecast (8/7/13)

          Over the past few days, scattered showers have been around the region. These showers look to continue to be across the area in through the day today, with an increased chance of some showers after noon, especially in the southern tier of the region. You will need to bring your umbrella because the showers will likely be a little heavy, but no strong storms are expected until Thursday. In the northern part of the area, partly to mostly cloudy conditions is the weather forecast with some scattered showers possibly later in the day.

          Temperatures will generally be in the lower 70's in the extreme northern locations here in the northeast, or around Caribou. After that, the warmest temperatures will likely be found in Southern New England and Ohio, who will both top out in the lower 80's. This is overall you forecast for today, thanks for reading and stay tuned to Northeast Weather Action for the latest weather updates, forecasts, and outlooks. Stay safe and have a great rest of your day everyone!

Tuesday, August 6, 2013

Two Week Weather Forecast (8/6/13) - 8/20/13)


I give you a detailed forecast for the weather that is expected for the next 2 weeks.

2013 Fall Weather Forecast


I take you through the expectations for this fall and give you reasoning for why I expect what I do. Don't Miss it!

Monday, August 5, 2013

The Week Ahead: The Rain Has Returned

          Over the past week or two, dry weather has mostly been the most common weather condition over the region. I am sure you remember the very rainy weeks about a month ago, so is that kind of weather back? It could be, and the rain this week will once again be widespread around the region with the lightest rain around Western New York. Overall a small system will move through Maryland and Delaware on Wednesday, with a stronger low moving though Northern Pennsylvania, Southern New York, and Northern New Jersey.

          After that, on Friday a system will move though the middle of the area and provide rain into New York and into New England. Overall you will need to keep an eye to the sky if you are having any outdoor events in the next week. Thanks for reading and here is the 7 Day Rainfall Forecast provided by the Weather Prediction Center. Have a great rest of your day and stay safe everyone!


Do You Want Your Own Branch of Northeast Weather Action?

          Northeast Weather Action is now branching out to statewide coverage. This page Northeast Weather Action and our website, newxaction.blogspot.com will not change at all, but statewide blogs possibly named like for example, "New York Weather Action," would be created! You the viewers would make the web pages/facebook pages using for the website hosters, Blogger or Wordpress, which are both free.           
          
          All you have to do is keep comment or message Northeast Weather Action saying you would like to create a statewide branch. If you did, you would need to keep the blog updated because it will get viewers so if you want it to be noticed, just maybe post on it once or twice a day, with occasionally missing a day, which would be fine.          
          
          So if you would like to cover your states weather by branching out with us, just feel free to comment below or message Northeast Weather Action over on facebook! Thank you for your time and it would be great if you were to help us out by taking you states branch. Have a great rest of your day and stay safe!


- Josh Adams (Northeast Weather Action Admin)

Saturday, August 3, 2013

Showers To Be Around The Area Today

          It has been a wet end of the week here in the northeast, and today has been way over-estimated as far as shower coverage. Today will just feature some showers around the region, with no long lasting heavy rain expected. Overall mostly cloudy skies will be around the region will possibly some breaks of sun.

          So really don't cancel your outdoor activities because there is no need to unless you have to have a perfect blue sky. Here is the current radar, thanks for reading and stay tuned to Northeast Weather Action for the latest weather updates like this one, forecasts, and outlooks! Stay Safe and have a great rest of your day everyone!

Northeast US: Doppler Radar 1800 Mile

Thursday, August 1, 2013

August 2013 Forecast: Another Hot and Rainy Month? Find Out!


         I take you through the August 2013 Forecast and show you what we expect in terms of temperatures, precipitation, and tropical activity. I give lots of reasoning to why I forecast what I do. Thanks for watching ans PLEASE SUBSCRIBE. Like Northeast Weather Action on facebook and visit newxaction.blogspot.com for the latest weather updates, forecasts, and outlooks! Stay safe and have a great rest of your day everyone!

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