Saturday, April 27, 2013

May Severe Weather Threat Forecast

          For the month of May that is coming in just a few days, here is what i expect when it comes in terms of the severe weather threats. First, lets start with the area with the lowest threat of seeing severe weather, which is from New England, into the Great Lakes area, extending into the upper peninsula of Michigan and then over into the Minneapolis region, down to Denver. After reaching through the Rocky Mountain Basin, it stretches over to the southwestern part of Texas, and then over to south Florida, right into Miami. In this area, I generally expect scattered severe thunderstorms, not many tornadoes do I expect for this region to come in the month of May, but if we can manage to get some heat, the severe weather threat could go up to North Dakota and most likely some of the areas the are currently in low on this map would be in moderate, if not high depending on how much instability is fueled by sliding fronts and that warm Gulf moisture.

          Now you see the area labeled with a moderate threat level. This area spreads from Orlando, Florida, up to Raleigh and Harrisburg, PA, next over to Columbus and Chicago and then over to extreme western Kansas and down to Austin, TX. Now like I said for the area of low threat, now even more for this region, if the temperatures warm up, this area of Moderate will go to Denver, up to Milwaukee, next to Cleveland, and then over to Binghamton, NY and down to Virginia Beach. But the main risks in places located in the the moderate zone are possibly once a week severe thunderstorm threats and scattered Tornadoes. But keep in mind, the month of May is on average the most active month when it comes in terms of severe weather activity. The most severe weather activity in May is normally in the southeast and the great plains, here is map from The Weather Channel showing the normal threat areas in May for tornadoes.

          As you can see the normal risk in May are mainly over the central Plains. But because of the setup and the current pattern, I really see the most active area for tornadoes from St. Louis to Little Rock, over to Memphis. Now back to my forecast, places from Atlanta to Kansas City in my opinion should have a pretty active severe weather setup that most likely fuel common thunderstorm across this region and even I think some tornadoes are possible, and some could even be strong depending on if we get great severe weather setups or just scattered little threats. After that keep think, May is not the only month with severe weather, and the risk areas will relocate and move around, because we still have the months of June, July, August, September, and even October to see severe weather. So don't let yourself think May is the only month with severe weather in the whole yea, because it's not. 

          Now for the last region, the area labeled "major" indicates places where numerous severe thunderstorms and possibly strong tornadoes. So if you live in the region with a major threat, just keep track of the weather for possible severe weather events in the future and when severe weather stikes, because in this region, I am almost certain there will be tornadoes in the month of May and there will be an outbreak with widespread tornades in this tegion, which I am almost certain of this. But overall, there will be more severe thunderstorm activity in May then the month we are in now (April if you don't know, I hope you know that by now) and the area that saw severe t-storms in April will expand in almost all directons. Alright so thats just about the end to the monthly severe weather threat forecasts, stay here for the latest weather forecasts and outlooks and tune in next month at this time for the June Severe Weather Threat Forecast!

Friday, April 26, 2013

Long Range Lookout

          As we are looking for some help from mother nature for some warmer weather, is there any hope in sight? The answer is great if you want true warm weather. Warmer and even if you want to say hotter weather is on the way eventually but it could take a week, so we still have to wait. Over the course of next week, the temperatures will be around average and the weather should be mainly dry with showers from southern PA, southward. After that the temperatures become pretty warm going into the first full week of May. Yes, believe it or not, it's already May, the summer is around the corner!

          It looks like the temperatures should be mild with about highs 10 - 15 degrees above average widespread throughout the northeast US region. After that in my opinion, it will last through the majority of the remainder of May and it could get hot! This was a short update where I pretty much wanted to express the warm weather that is coming, also the pattern should setup slightly drier the normal weather.

Thursday, April 25, 2013

Don't worry, the weekend is almost here! Friday's Highs . . .

          Friday's weather will be fairly calm with a few stray showers in New England and northern upstate New York. But besides that, things will be pretty quiet with around average temperatures. The good news is that the weather will remain dry over the weekend and most of next week except for a few showers possible around the lakes and points south of Baltimore. The temperatures will continue to be slightly above average making for a great week of weather from pretty much now until maybe 10 days from now! Enjoy it while it lasts!

Today's Weather - Quiet and Cool



Tuesday, April 23, 2013

Posts Of The Day: What Month(s) Do We See The Most Severe Weather In? Find Out! AND My Official 2013 Summer Severe Weather Outlook

What Month(s) Do We See The Most Severe Weather In? Find Out!

          At this time of year this question is on people's minds and many people don't really know the answer. So we have seen some severe weather so far this year, here in the northeast US, but it's only April. Now as you may have seen on places like The Weather Channel that the month of May is the most active time of year for severe weather, but don't let that fool you, because that's just when in the US severe weather is the most widespread, but in our neck of the woods, this is not true. So lets move on from where we are right now. In late April, you can see some spotty severe weather action in the southern areas of the northeast US, but the overall threat for severe weather and tornadoes is very low and nearly no threat exists for places like Maine. Here is a map provided by The Weather Channel showing the risks for tornadoes and severe weather for the month of April.



          After that comes May, this is when the temperatures begin to quickly rise across the northeast and the risk of severe weather also increases. There is typically one or two severe weather outbreaks containing about 20 or 30 severe thunderstorms each that impact the northeast in May, but the risk for severe weather almost everyday in some places has not arrived yet. Really May is spread out, in early May, things are normally pretty quiet in terms of severe weather, but as the month moves on, the chance for severe weather almost doubles. By the middle part of May, severe weather most of the time of just about upon us and most of the time becomes more noticeable, whether people see events or damage from or about severe weather say in the southeast US or the plain states. Going on, by late May, severe weather has arrived, especially in areas like Ohio, West Virginia, Maryland, and Pennsylvania. Here is a map provided by The Weather Channel showing the risks for tornadoes and severe weather for the month of May.



          During late May and early June, there are normally not many tornadoes around are area but there certainly are severe thunderstorms. After that time period, in the middle part of June, the risk of severe weather runs up further into the northeast as now we start to get New Jersey, New York, and all of New England involved in the fun. Now in late June, the risk of tornadoes is on the increase because of the still rising temperatures and the more warm and live gulf moisture combined with sometimes harsh cold fronts, most of the time in this part of the year make for a very good severe weather outbreak setup. The risk for everything from tornadoes to strong storms to hurricanes is upon us by late June as the summer heat is on high. Here is a map provided by The Weather Channel showing the risks for tornadoes and severe weather for the month of June.



          Now moving into the Month of July, this is the month when the most severe weather and tornadoes strike the northern US. Normally the whole month is packed with severe weather and the risk in some spots for severe weather almost every day. This is also the month with the hottest normal high temperatures across the region. After that we have to deal with the rising threat for tropical storms or hurricanes that could effect the area, and as we know, severe weather comes with tropical cyclones, now normally if there are tornadoes connected to a tropical cyclone, they are weak and short lasting, but overall the month of July is the answer of the title question. But this will be typical and nothing we have not ever seen before. Here is a map provided by The Weather Channel showing the risks for tornadoes and severe weather for the month of July.



          For the month of August, the schedule is very spread out for severe weather events. In the beginning of August, the risk for severe weather and tornadoes is still out there and moderate. Now as we work our way into the month, the threat for severe weather begins to sag out of New England and northern New York, now very much contained to central New York, as almost like now if you were to bring up a map and draw a line from Boston to Syracuse, normally places south of this line still have a risk for severe weather in the middle part of August, but areas north of that line begin to yes, already prepare for the cold air of fall.
But the story is completely different for locations south of that line, really in Pennsylvania and Ohio, as well as West Virginia, Virginia, Maryland, and Delaware. For these places the threat for severe weather is growing lower and lower, but still there. But when is comes in terms of tornadoes, this risk is very low by late August pretty much everywhere in the northeast. Here is a map provided by The Weather Channel showing the risks for tornadoes and severe weather for the month of August.



          In September, the risk of severe weather is really rapping up and even though there is still some risks for severe weather, the risk for severe weather in September is about the same as the risk for severe weather is early May, which is not all that great. At this time of the year, the topic in weather for the northeast really switches from severe weather to tropical storms and hurricanes, which as we know can still cause severe weather, but like I said, the severe storms are normally very scattered and mainly for damaging winds produced by the actual tropical cyclone, and also the tornadoes that are produced in tropical storms and hurricanes are very weak and short lasting, most of the time not even touching the ground. So overall  in September, this risk for severe weather and tornadoes greatly decreases. Here is a map provided by The Weather Channel showing the risks for tornadoes and severe weather for the month of September.


          Thanks for reading and be sure to take a look below at my Official 2013 Summer Severe Weather Outlook!

 My Official 2013 Summer Severe Weather Outlook

          As we are about to enter the time of year with lots of severe weather here in the northeast, I wanted to present my Official 2013 Summer Severe Weather Outlook. This outlook will be short and to the point. Overall I predict a slightly above average severe weather season for the northeast this year. I really think this because the amount of gulf moisture that will fuel severe weather outbreaks this year will be around average because of the the slightly above average warm waters of the gulf as seen in the upper right hand corner of this graphic.

Tropical Pacific Sea Surface Temperatures Animation

          Also as you can see on the model below ,the JAMSTEC shows warmer gulf waters that will feed warm and moist gulf air and moisture into cold fronts, providing possible slightly more or widespread severe weather events. 

          So with these factors in mind as well as others, below is my Official 2013 Summer Severe Weather Outlook, thanks for reading!

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