Saturday, February 16, 2013

New England Snowfall Totals For Today and Tomorrow

          As we have moisture pretty much streaming up all the way from the Carolina's, it will grab moisture from the Atlantic and make for a small New England snowstorm, well, small compared to last weekend but there will still be significant amounts of snow. This storm will spread moisture across New England, with the most moisture in eastern New England, this will definitely be all snow. The snow will continue to fall in cities like Worcester and Boston through tomorrow afternoon. But this will almost be like lake effect snow the way that is streaming into New England, so if you get caught in a snow band, you could get even more significant amounts then these. The temperatures will be in the lower - middle 20's which will help create a lighter more fluffy snow, which will accumulate faster. Here is my snowfall totals map prediction for this storm alone.

Monday Night - Tuesday Night Wintry Event

          As I briefly talked about in my long range lookout yesterday, it looks like there will certainly be a wintry event coming this Tuesday. This storm will be centered around Ontario Canada but have a large moisture shield spreading all of the way to around Ocean City, Maryland. Overall this storm will move ENE in Canada and spread moisture into Ohio, Michigan, western Pennsylvania, and western New York late Monday afternoon as most likely all snow. After that the moisture will move into central Pennsylvania and central New York, like Syracuse, New York, this will be in the late evening hours of Monday, around or just before midnight. This will be all snow with possibly, this is not very likely but in some area's could be sleet to start, but it should be all snow with temperatures in these regions being in the 20's. After that the moisture from the low moving ENE will spread into eastern Pennsylvania, eastern New York, New Jersey, and extreme interior New England late Monday night as all snow with some sleet of rain mixed in around coastal New Jersey and New York City. Also by this time, which will be at about 6 AM, the precipitation type will likely switch to a snow/sleet mix in Ohio, eastern Michigan, western New York, and western Pennsylvania, but higher elevations above 1000 feet should still be snow at this time. Also around 8 AM in the morning on Tuesday, the precipitation type should switch to mostly rain, with a slight chance of freezing rain, but mostly rain across central and eastern Pennsylvania, as well as elevations below 1200 feet upstate New York and Pennsylvania. Also at this time it will switch to rain across m most of New Jersey. But the precipitation should still be snow across the Pocono mountains of Pennsylvania, really area's above 1200 feet should be all snow until around noon, when it should change over to a mix across northeast Pennsylvania and the Catskill mountains. After that interior New England will be snowing until around 10 AM, when it will change over to a mix, possibly rain in elevations lower then 500 feet and snow in elevations above 500 feet across interior New England. Now as far as coastal area's of New England, it should be mostly rain with some mix on Tuesday night. But overall this will not be much of a large snowfall event. Here is a map of my predictions on the precipitation type in our northeast United States region.

Friday, February 15, 2013

Long Range Lookout

          As we look towards next week and in general the next 10 days,  it seems as though we have a lot of snow coming at us here in the northeast. So overall we know this storm that's going on and developing now across West Virginia and Pennsylvania. This low will move up the coast and possibly produce significant amounts of snow in New England.  But there looks to be a mixed storm on Monday night to Wednesday night. It  looks like mainly a rain event for southern Pennsylvania and as you get further north into northern Pennsylvania and southern New York, as well as northern New Jersey but not New York City. They will remain mostly rain. Now when you get into New England the temperatures will be slightly colder so in coastal area's of New England it will be a rain / mix, and then in interior New England probably a mix / snow event. The snowfall totals don't look all that impressive, but this is only one of the three or four possible events.

          Now we will get to the next storm event. There is a chance of a storm at the end of next week, specifically next Friday there could a storm that comes that takes more of a clipper track coming across southern Ohio and West Virginia and then moving off the Virginia coast, then moving northeast up the coast off the coast of New England. This event could be big or could be small, different models show different intensities for this storm but the same general track. This storm could produce significant snowfall from Washington DC to Portland Maine. As far as the temperatures, they should be cold enough except for possibly Baltimore and DC. This is only a possibility but it has been indicated on the models for a long time now. After, but if this event is still being indicated on the models by Tuesday, we will most likely have something on our hands, and just to say, this event is not just being shown on a few models, its being shown on literally every single model there is. So know lets go on to yet two more possible storms that will likely be all snow across all area's in the northeast despite what the models read at this point, so hear is some information on these two storms.

          Just to start here, I want you to take this information your about to read because these events are around 8 - 10 days out but look interesting at this point, but nothing is even close out of these tow storms to being carved in stone. So lets start with the possible next weekend Sunday storm. This storm as a far out glimpse but as we have learned so far this season, just because the models show a storm this far out doesn't mean it even has a 60 % chance of happening, but it is being showed on about half of the models. So this storm will take around the same track as the Friday possible storm. This storm looks to be pretty good for two Sundays from now, possible closer to the cost because of the negative NAO. Here is  a model from the 12z model for next Sundays storm.

          Now as you can see there are two separate lows that should fade around New Jersey. The thing is the models have this storm going out to sea off of New Jersey but personally I think this storm will just move up the coast once again because of the negative NAO. But there is certainly still a lot of uncertainty with the exact track of these lows. Also the temperatures but they will most likely be cold enough to snow everywhere, but if it's colder, that means more snow compared to if the temperature is at freezing during this possible storm. Now lets get to the last possible storm. This storm looks that it could go up the coast and that is one low, the other on is around the Great Lakes. This storm looks just as good as the possible Sunday event I just talked about. In general around the same temperatures and precipitation amounts. Overall here is the 12z euro snowfall accumulation totals through Monday at 7 AM of 10 days from now. These totals could be higher because this model doesn't show the Friday storm as strong as this model doesn't have these storms going up the coast, but they probably will if they occur, so don't worry New England.

          As you can see, there is definitely lots of snow possibly heading our way but this is still far out. But overall, winter is not over so go back to your house Phil, Spring is not hear yet. So I will continue to inform you about the latest developments like the models depictions on these possible events and other weather events across our northeast area.

Thursday, February 14, 2013

Weekend Snowstorm

          Here is a map of the expected snowfall totals for this weekend.

Wednesday, February 13, 2013

Today Into Tonights Snowfall Totals Final Forecast

          To start I just want say this forecast will be similar to the first one I had but I don't expect to see 6 - 10 inches anywhere, the models have really back off a major snowstorm but now it's just a matter of "now casting", which is looking at the radar and the movement of this storm and predict the temperatures and radar image at a certain time. So this snow will be very wet and sloppy, probably not  sticking to anything at least in South Central Pennsylvania until 8 PM, Southeast Pennsylvania 10 PM and Southern New Jersey 11 PM. Overall this will not be a big event, just another light snow event across the common wealth of southern Pennsylvania and southern New Jersey, as well as the Appalachians.  Here is my final snowfall totals forecast for today - tonight. These totals could go up where heavy bands setup, which will drop the temperature and produce heavier snow.

Monday, February 11, 2013

Wednesday - Thursday Snowstorm

          This will be more of an unexpected snowstorm event. I was originally thinking light accumulations overall but now the models have really blown up this storm and indicate possible significant accumulations across. So you may be slightly surprised by what I am about to say but it looks some area's in southern Pennsylvania over to the astern Appalachians could see 6 - 10 inches of snow. The timing of this storm is the storm will move into southern Pennsylvania at about 3 PM Wednesday as likely all snow with some mix possible in the city of Philadelphia. After that heavier precipitation will move into southern Pennsylvania, especially the lower Susq. Vally, after that the precipitation will continue to move northeast into Central and northern New Jersey. This is by about 8 PM. Now very heavy precipitation will move into area's like Harrisburg, PA, York, Pa, Lancaster, PA, Allentown, PA, Trenton, NJ, West Orange, NJ, and possibly NYC. By 7 AM, the precipitation should be leaving southern Pennsylvania and New Jersey. It also looks like southern New England could also get in on some snow. It looks like a widespread 2 - 4 inches across Massachusetts, as well as Connecticut and Rhode Island. As you go further north into Vermont and New Hampshire, you will be looking at 1 - 3 inches around. So here is a forecast map for snowfall totals expected  out of this storm.

          Here is an example of a trending model. Earlier and yesterday the CMC model was showing little to no impacts on the northeast with this storm, now look at the precipitation that the CMC apits out to be falling Wednesday night!

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