Saturday, June 15, 2013

Sunday - Monday WPC Total Precipitation Forecast

          As if we need more rain, but don't worry, this event is not going to be like the latest rainstorms we have just had. The rain from this event will be centered in Western new York, where there will be straight rain, and into New England. But as you head into Ohio, PA, and into New Jersey, you run the risk for strong  and/or severe storms.

Friday, June 14, 2013

7 - 14 Day Temperatures Forecast

          As the first third of June has been average to even slightly below average in terms of temperatures, some summer heat is finally on the way. Only eight days until summer and it will certainly feel like summer from the 22nd through the 29th.

Thursday, June 13, 2013

Saturday's Temperatures and Weather Forecast

          The first part of your weekend is looking great with widespread 60's and 70's with great weather conditions!

What Happened To The Severe Weather Today?

        As yesterday, the thought was that today we were going to have one of the strongest and most intense severe weather outbreaks of the year. Everyone from the Storm Prediction Center to Northeast Weather Action predicted this. So why didn't we get severe thunderstorms? Well that is a very good question and has a few general answers. I'm sure people from Southern Pennsylvania to Northern Virginia were woken up by a line of severe thunderstorms this morning. Well that line of severe thunderstorms really robbed the atmosphere of all of the instability and shear that was predicted to be present throughout today. After that line of showers and storms passed through the region, we were socked in by clouds which completely ruined the chances of severe thunderstorm formation for today. So in general, the line this morning acted as a shield and protected the area from severe storms.

          When you look at the radar, you see intense severe thunderstorms in Virginia or off the coast. Well now you might ask, why do they have severe storms and we have nothing? Very good question once again, but yet again has answers. The reason is because those locations didn't see the squall line in which we did. This in which opened the door for severe weather and didn't close the door on instability, which we here in the Northeast, had the door closed on by. Many people are grateful for this occurrence, but for the storm chasers, no no no, not today! As always be sure to stay tuned to Northeast Weather Action for the latest updates, forecasts, and outlooks on all northeast weather action!

Derecho Heading Into Western And Central Pennsylvania

Severe Thunderstorm Watch 303


Tomorrow 12 AM – Friday 10 AM Final Rainfall Forecast

          Here are the final thoughts on rainfall coming early tomorrow morning through around 10 AM Friday and also the updated rainfall totals forecast from the Weather Prediction Center.

Wednesday, June 12, 2013

Largest Severe Weather Outbreak Of Year Arriving Tomorrow

          We have had severe weather events and a few outbreaks, but nothing terribly big in terms of severe weather. That is until tomorrow when an extreme severe thunderstorm threat is expected for a portion of the region. Widespread severe thunderstorms will likely impact every portion of this certain region. Watch out for extremely heavy downpours and violent winds, as well as large hail and possibly a few tornadoes. Here is the forecast for tomorrow's severe thunderstorm threats.

New Rainfall Forecast From Tonight - Friday Afternoon

          Here is the updated rainfall forecast for tonight through Friday Afternoon, stay dry!

Tuesday, June 11, 2013

New Thoughts On Wednesday Night - Friday Morning Rain Event

          Yesterday parts of the region received moderate rain all day, like in New England. Meanwhile other sections of the region like Northern Maryland, dealt with tornadoes. Today scattered showers and thunderstorms will be throughout the area. Don't forget about last week's rain from what was Tropical Storm Andrea, or the remnants of it. So with all of this rain, can we possibly expect more. After all, cities like New York City are having one of the top 10 wettest June's of all time, and we are only a third of the way into the month.

          This answer to the previous question is yes, do to the active pattern that is constantly tracking storms through the Midwest and Ohio Valley, straight into the Northeast. Now lets get to details on this rainstorm. Showers and thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon across Western PA and New York, as well as Central and Northern Ohio could be severe, with possibly a derecho, which is a long line of severe thunderstorms that cause widespread amounts of damage. This name might seem very familiar to you. It would at around this time last year, two derechos swept through Ohio and from Harrisburg, PA to Richmond, Virginia. These prompted long lasting power outages. Which did not mix the the heat wave we experienced shortly after derechos.

          After Wednesday, a low pressure system will approach the region Thursday Morning, shortly after, still likely during Thursday Morning, the storm system will push into Northern Ohio and into Western PA. Heavy is likely to fall, especially on the northern side of the system, which is being indicated on the new models. This. is causing the forecast to change drastically and could still go either way, and could just be a trend that could change. After the rainfall moves into Western PA and Western New York, it will move into Eastern New York as well as Central and Eastern Pennsylvania by around the early afternoon hours on Thursday. 

          The system is actually looking pretty intense, being forecasted a 997 MB storm in Southeastern PA. When Friday Morning rolls around, the area of low pressure will likely be around Long Island, or just south of it. The rain extent should reach up through Southern New England and into Central New England. Now the southern end of the rain is still more out there, or unknown. On the model I am about to show you, you will see what I am talking about. Here is the new 00z GFS for late Thursday Night, with the low centered in Southeastern PA.

          As you can see, it's clear the majority of the rainfall produced by this storm in on the northern side of the system. This is the variable that still has many possibilities but is now becoming more certain. Many models are now showing this solution, so the forecast has changed greatly and looks to be holding throughout the most recent model forecasts. Keep tuned into Northeast Weather Action for the latest rainfall forecasts on this storm. Also stay here because many more storms are coming our way, take my word when I say that. For now I will leave you with the new rainfall forecast for Wednesday Night through Friday at around of just before noon. Thanks for reading!

Monday, June 10, 2013

Today's Updated Severe T-Storm Threats

          As severe thunderstorms impacted a portion of the region today, more severe weather is expected to be present tomorrow. The severe storms will mainly be east of the Appalachian, with the risk not as high for some heavy thunderstorms in Ohio. The area with the greatest risk of seeing storms is from in and around Hartford, Connecticut through Eastern Pennsylvania and down into Eastern and Central Virginia. Some storms could contain damaging winds and small hail, as well as heavy downpours. Besides severe weather, some scattered showers, certainly not as widespread as yesterday, will be around. But anyways here is the updated forecast for today's severe thunderstorm threats.

Forecast For Additional Rain This Evening - Tomorrow Night

          With areas already receiving in excess of two to as much as 3 inches of rain so far with this event, even more rain is likely as be added to that this evening through tomorrow night. From Northern New Jersey and into New England, mainly heavy rainfall with a few scattered thunderstorms is anticipated, but as you head south, the story changes. In Southern Pennsylvania, a tornado watch is in effect for the possibility of severe thunderstorms that could include damaging winds and possibly tornadoes. Watch out for heavy rain in those storms as well. The watch is until 10:00 PM EST. After today finishes up, tonight a front will come through, and you might think everything is wrapped up. Well it's not because behind this front, more showers and thunderstorms will be around the region. So stay tuned to Northeast Weather Action for the latest updates as well as forecasts and outlooks on all Northeast weather action. Here is the forecast for additional rainfall amounts that will fall between this evening and tomorrow night. 

Even More Rain for The Region On Thursday? Find Out Where!

          On Wednesday Night through Thursday Night, we are expecting yet another rainy encounter here in the northeast. It will be caused by a system moving WSW from the Midwest that will affect our region with heavy rain. The rainfall with this event will mainly be confined to a smaller area then the previous events we have just had. This time, the heaviest of the rainfall will be from Williamsport, PA over to Cleveland and down to D.C.. Here is a model showing the storm when it's starting to come into the northeast.

          As you can see, the rain is in one general area, though it is very heavy, especially in northern Ohio. This is at the early morning hours of Thursday. Now here is the same model indicating the precipitation moving east and even become more significant.

          The rain is really starting to ramp up in this model, as totals approach 2 inches in central Pennsylvania. The time frame for this model is around Thursday Afternoon. Now don't take these models to literal, because the highest totals could be anywhere in the region, and not just one county. Here is the last model, which is showing the storm move off-shore and affect New York and Philly with some pretty good rains.

          Overall this will be yet another 1 - 2 inch rainfall event for Ohio through Pennsylvania and into New Jersey. After that watch out for some possible severe thunderstorms that could roll though this region on Wednesday and Thursday. This is the preliminary rainfall forecast totals forecast and stay tuned to Northeast Weather Action for the updated forecast on this event as well as forecasts and outlooks on all northeast weather action.

Rain Still To Fall Between This Morning - Tomorrow Night

          As heavy rainfall in some spots has already fallen, more rain is expected to fall between now through tomorrow night. Watch out for minor street flooding as well as those streams in your back. After that watch our for some heavy thunderstorms in the afternoon that could be on the severe side as well as just plain downpours. Some of the moisture believe it or not is thanks to tropical moisture, so that is why areas around the coast and just inland could receive the most rainfall. The heaviest rainfall is anticipated to fall between Mt.Pocono, PA, into southeastern New York and over to Springfield, Massachusetts. Watch out for more rain later in the week. Read that forecast to find out where that rain will fall and how much. 

Sunday, June 9, 2013

Yes, Severe Weather Will Also Be Included!

This Evening - Tuesday Night Final Rainfall Totals Forecast

          Here is the final forecast for rainfall totals expected from tonight trough Tuesday Night. This is now looking like it will be a heavy rain event with minor flooding possible around creeks and streams. As well as urban and suburban street flooding. The heaviest rainfall is expected to fall in southwestern New England and int Southeastern New York. Sorry but it looks like tomorrow will be a day to forget about for summer lovers and possibly as well as Tuesday, especially in Northern New Jersey into Southern New England. Stay tuned to Northeast Weather Action for the latest alerts on this storm as well as forecasts for the many more rainy times we will have in the next several weeks!

Weather Prediction Center's Updated Precipitation Totals

Weather Prediction Center's Rainfall Forecasts

Day 1 Rain Forecast:

Day 2 Rain Forecast:

Day 3 Rain Forecast:

Days 1 - 3 Total Rain Forecast

Updated Rainfall Totals Forecast For This Afternoon Through Tuesday Night

          Here is the new rainfall forecast for this afternoon - Tuesday Night. As you can see, the forecast totals are really rising. This is thanks to the precipitation now looking more widespread instead of yesterday when we were thinking thunderstorms and heavy rain only by the coast. Now it looks like the heaviest rain will be from around Springfield, MA through areas in and close to Scranton, PA. But overall areas anywhere from Watertown, New York, to Boston. This will be a significant rainfall for the region so stay tuned to Northeast Weather Action for the latest forecasts and updates on this rainy situation as well as all other northeast weather action. The final rain forecast for this event will be released around the middle part of this afternoon.

Updated Sunday Evening - Tuesday Night Rainfall Totals Forecast

          Here is the new forecast for possible rainfall totals between Sunday Evening through Tuesday Night. A few showers will be around our region tomorrow evening and tomorrow night. After that, scattered thunderstorms will be around the region, but around coastal areas and as far west as Harrisburg, PA and Berkshire Mountains, some tropical moisture will tap into the storms and create a widespread rain event. This will all occur Monday Afternoon and last into the night. Then on Tuesday, a few thunderstorms will be around the region once again, and could tap into more tropical mositure, but not as much as Monday. So for these reasons, locations that are coastal and slightly farther inland  will see the most rain. This is just adding to the rain we have just recieved from Tropical Storm Andrea.

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