Tuesday, September 24, 2013

Could The Negative NAO Continue Into The Winter? Find Out!

          Over the past couple weeks, a negative NAO has been dominant. These are part of a group we call teleconnections, they have an impact on our temperatures, precipitation, and overall weather pattern. They are dictated by sea surface in a certain region. The NAO is short for North Atlantic Oscillation. This is an area of of water, in of course the Northern Atlantic, that has fluctuating sea surface temperatures. When the water in the area is cold, then we are in a phase called the Negative NAO. If the waters are are warmer than normal, we would be in a Positive NAO. Here is a graphic that details the weather conditions when we are in each of these phases.

          As you can see, when we are in a Negative NAO, we typically experience colder and snowier conditions across the Northeast US. When we are in a Positive NAO, we see warmer temperatures than normal. So now lets get to what this article is really about. Lately, we have been seeing a Negative NAO, which is why for the past two weeks, generally below average temperatures have been occurring in the region. We expect this pattern to continue into the winter, which would greatly impact on this winter, possibly enhancing the probability of an above average snowfall this winter, as well as cold temperatures. Here are the current NAO models for just the next two weeks, but like I said could possibly go on into the winter.

         As you can clearly see, we have been having colder water in the Northern Atlantic. Although it looks like we could return to a Neutral NAO. But then right after, if will likely fall right back down into the negative phase. I am not saying the NAO will be negative indefinitely for the whole fall and winter. Of course we could have some spikes where the NAO rises positive. But a Negative NAO definitely looks like it could continue in the long range. So this is a good factor that like that graphic indicates, a cold and snowy winter. Thanks for reading and don't forget, our 2013 - 2014 Winter Outlook: 3rd Update is going to be released this Saturday. Have a great and safe rest of your day!

Our YouTube Videos