Friday, August 30, 2013

Thoughts On 2014 Farmers Almanac Winter Outlook

          Here are my thoughts on this year's Farmers Almanac 2014 Winter Outlook. First of all whoever has not seen it yet, here is the summary. Cold, cold, and colder, this years Farmers Almanac Winter Outlook includes widespread below average temperatures thought all regions of the Lower 48. But the areas with the coldest temperatures (most below average), are located anywhere from the northern plains to the Great Lakes and into the northeast. For the rest of the country, mainly chilly conditions are what they expect for the upcoming winter.

          So lets go region-by-region, and I will express my opinion as well as compare their outlook to my newest one.

Northeast Region

          Farmers Almanac 2014 Winter Outlook: Bitterly Cold & Snow Filled for the majority of the area with Cold, Wet, and White Conditions in the south and New Jersey. Mainly just Cold and White because Southern PA, and New Jersey, as well as extreme Southern New England are all in northern areas of the Cold, Wet, and White section. So that is there prediction, now lets compare. Overall there outlook is similar to mine, I don't know if it will be bitter, but in my opinion the temperatures this winter will be below average. In my opinion, us here in the Northeast US will be about 15 - 30 inches above average from normal in terms of snowfall.

Southeast Region

          Farmers Almanac 2014 Winter Outlook: Chilly & Wet. I agree is some ways with their outlook but not completely. I do not think the Southeast US will be that chilly, but i do think they will see wetter conditions with more mountain snow than normal. I believe there could be temperature swings down in the southeast, and this really depends on whether the Southeast Ridge forms or not. If it does occur, the Southeast will generally have above average temperatures, of course effecting the overall winter turnout. So I think the Farmers Almanac 2014 Winter Outlook did an ok job for predicting the southeast, but I definitely have some disagreements. 

Great Lakes Region
          Farmers Almanac 2014 Winter Outlook: Biting Cold & Snowy. For this area of the United States, I think they did pretty well. I agree, it will be colder than normal in the Great Lakes region, maybe not Biting Cold, but it will be cold. Here comes the detailed part, lets get into snowfall expectations for the Great Lakes area. I predict about average lake effect snowfall. For the remainder of the area, I think there will be above average snowfall/precipitation in Illinois and Southern Wisconsin, but the rest of the area will be anywhere from average to possibly slightly above average snowfall.

North Central Plains Region

          Farmers Almanac 2014 Winter Outlook: Piercing Cold With Normal Snowfall. I now agree with this area the most out of any region. I think it will be cold in this area, maybe not piercing cold, but it will be cold n the northern central plains. I do think they will also see generally around average snowfall, but the extreme northern part of the northern part of the northern plains could be see slightly below normal snowfall. So I agree for the most part with their predictions, so I think they did an ok job!

South Central Plains Region 

          Farmers Almanac 2014 Winter Outlook: Frosty & Unusually Wet. For this area, I would say the Farmers Almanac did ok. With the frosty part, I think this is where they went overboard on the cold. I forecast average temperatures for the southern plains. Once again, I also predict that this area will have temperature swings, meaning sometimes it will be warmer and other times the area will see colder temperatures than normal. For precipitation, I agree with them with above average precipitation, but possibly not unusually. Overall as you have heard, I think the Farmers Almanac has a very extreme outlook for this winter.

Southwest Region:

          Farmers Almanac 2014 Winter Outlook: Cool With Near-Normal Precipitation. I agree mainly with this outlook, but have a few disagreements. I completely disagree with the cooler temperatures than normal part. What I predict is slightly above average temperatures, instead of below average. To hear why, just watch my new update of the winter outlook. Now for precipitation, I see above average precipitation in the Southwest US because I anticipate the southern stream to be active. This in which would prompt above average precipitation in the southwest, and really the southern parts of the southwest.

Northwest Region:

          Farmers Almanac 2014 Winter Outlook: Dry & Chilly. Lets start with the drier conditions they expect. What I predict is around average precipitation for the Northwest US. For the temperatures, I could agree with them, but really I predict the Pacific Northwest to see around average temperatures. I do think there are still some impotent factors/teleconnections that will determine whether the northwest and even the whole US sees above or below average temperatures/precipitation.

          So with everything I have said and what you now know about what the Farmers Almanac Predicts for the upcoming winter season, here is there official 2014 Winter Outlook!


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