As today's model runs take the Wednesday - Thursday storm to the south, my forecast has changed slightly, I hope all of you took the map yesterday with a grain of salt, because this storm is very tough and it is still far out. Also there are still many factors that will impact where this storm tracks and who it effects. Also the wave of low pressure is not even on land so the best models runs will be when this storm gets on land in the north Pacific, which will likely come sometime tomorrow of Monday, so Mondays model runs will give us a lot better idea of what will occur with this event. At this point the area of the northeast that has the highest or best chance of seeing snow is West Virginia, Maryland, southern Pennsylvania, and southern New Jersey. This area of snow could go north, or even south. At this point there is still much uncertainty and take what I am saying here with a grain of salt, because this storm could go either way.
But the models are just flipping, the GFS model overall has the storm going south because it has a weak low pressure system in southeast Canada. I really don;t see this low in southern Canada occurring. Also the trough that will be coming down impacts if this storm goes up the coast or not. If you want snow then you want this trough to come later because the models today have the storm coming earlier and the trough already being in place and to set up to send this storm up the northeast coast. So just because the models have been saying yes, then no, really both are just guesses because this storm is not even on land, so there is barely information being sent into the models. See how the models predict storms / events is stations around the world send current data and conditions to models like the GFS and the ECMWF, and then what the models do is create a plot for the events using the sent current information. But sense the storm or wave is not even on and land, there are not many stations that can even collect data to send into the models, so at this point that is why I am saying the models are pretty much guessing at this point right now.
So this map you are about to see is not going to be that accurate because of what I am saying. I am about to show you a few AccuWeather forecasts maps I like and my forecast map. So here are they and then i will have more of my thoughts on each map with this possible storm.
So in the first map you see the risks for this storm, however if this storm were to travel further north, the risks would go further north. I really don't see those risks going any more south then they are in the specific forecast map. Now in the second map down which is also provided by AccuWeather.com shows a high being in southern Canada, this is scenario 1, I don't see this happening because of the high pressure that will be up towards Greenland, that will likely help grab this storm and throw it up the coast. So that map is likely to not occur. Also I was talking about the possible low in Southeast Canada that could keep this storm pushed down south of us, well this low could help us in a way, of its strong enough it could pull this whole storm slightly further north, but I don;t even see the Canada low there, so throw both scenarios of that out the door.
So now in the third map down there is scenario number 2. This scenario shows there being no high in southern Canada and the low goes ENE and spreads heavy snow into the whole south portion of Pennsylvania, all of New Jersey, and southern New England. I actually see this situation occurring because once again I really don't see a high pressure are being centered right over southeast Canada. So there is still some uncertainty and this storm could go either way. Now the last map, the fourth map down, is North Weather Actions map showing where the snow could fall if this storm goes in the middle, so it pretty much shows the percent chance area's have at seeing snow. As you can see the further east the storm goes, the less sure I am in the forecast. Next you see the area with the question marks, that is the area where the snow would fall combined with the other area's if the low takes a northern track. However if the storm tracks on the scenario 2 forecast map track, then places in southern Virginia would likely not receive snow. So in general there is still some uncertainty with this storm and I will have constant updates on this event so keep it here at Northeast Weather Action.
As we are coming close to the end of winter, we likely have one last storm to track. The models have been up and down with this storm today but the models are in general agreement that this storm will effect the northeast. Next you should know is today is really the first day the models have indicated this storm being a major event for us, the models yesterday and a few days ago showed a southeast storm with minimal effects to us. But if you like snow, the models look to be trending towards a big snowstorm Wednesday - Thursday.
Here are the summary's of the different models and what they said today.
00 GFS: Minimal effects to Pennsylvania and New Jersey, to Massachusetts, storm glides to the south and strengthens off shore.
12Z GFS: Major snowstorm occurs with heavy snow accumulations to area's south of Concord, New Hampshire, and less snow at the coast.
00Z EURO: Large snowstorm to area's north of DC and with 12" + snowfall totals in Pennsylvania to Massachusetts.
12Z EURO: More south with the storm with significant accumulations to the south. Highest snowfall in southern Pennsylvania with 6 inches possible.
CMC: Disruptive snow to the area. All snow with large accumulations.
JMA: Big snowfall and cold temperatures as far south as DC.
Here are some snowfall accumulations being indicated by the models. This event is still far out, and there is still uncertainty with snowfall.
00Z GFS SNOWFALL:
12Z GFS SNOWFALL:
00Z EURO SNOWFALL:
12Z EURO SNOWFALL:
HERE IS MY SNOWFALL AREA'S VERY PRELIMINARY FORECAST MAP:
As I talked about a few days ago, it looked like we were going into a strong trough and almost all of the models indicated a freezing start to March, and possibly further into March. Well now, it looks like we could and most likely will have a warm up coming for us starting around the middle of next week. To summarize the model situation, the models a few days ago were showing a cool start and possibly middle March. Well now the models have almost completely thrown the idea of a cool down right out the door. Now some models show a warm start to March and a cool middle part. Well to me this is just the same old thing, the models will say something and then flip their whole idea. For instance and like I said, just as little as a few days ago the models were saying a major cool down for the beginning and middle of March. Well now that we are closer to the possible event that was originally indicated, the opposite is likely to occur.
But at this point, I'm not even sure I can even trust the models even from this close. They just flip - flop the whole way to an "event" being shown by the models. But at this point I like the idea of a warm March, besides the first 4 or 5 days, where temperatures should be around average, but after that, here comes Spring for many area's across the region. Next to go back on the whole weather models thing, I might be the first person to say this but it seems like they are getting worse and worse with handling long range, and even short range weather, AKA, the RAP. The RAP has been getting more off and off as the winter season went on. So to me I think we should start to get off the whole weather models thing because it just seems like whatever the models show from even close range, the opposite happens, especially with temperatures and sometimes even precipitation.
So I don't know what really to say about them, but now lets get into whats coming, using shall I say, the models, and my opinion to guide them. I think we will see like I said average temperatures up to about March 5th or 6th, and then warmer air. Now here are some models, I am not trying to use them to say, "Look what the models are saying at this point in time", but these models I want to use more to support my overall idea of warmer air coming.
Here are two models that show my idea's of what will occur after the 5th. Warmer air from a ridge will build into the area and provide above normal temperatures and with the new pattern setting up, below normal precipitation, not really caused by the ridge, but in general. So in the two models shown above, what you see are temperatures around 10 degrees above normal widespread, and you don't really see any trough coming either. Some models indicate a colder middle half of March, but I kind of disagree with that idea, and also that's just too far out.
But to summarize everything up I think the models these days are handling situations long and short range worse and worse and I see an average start in temperatures up until around March 5th, but then after that here comes an early Spring with for once, not much precipitation so you could a actually enjoy being outside in that warm air. I will update you on any changes in this idea of mine and keep it here, Northeast Weather Action, for all weather updates and weather news. See you in the next update which should be on the way in the next day or two!
Yet another winter storm will impact the northeast midweek. The storm will come over from the Midwest after it nails the central plains with historic snowfall and likely a blizzard in Kansas. When the event gets into our neck of the woods, it will bring significant snowfall accumulation to some area's. The storm will be made up of two different pieces. One piece will fly north of our area into Canada with some effects to us and the other piece of energy will come from a secondary low pressure system that will track through DC, Baltimore, Philadelphia, and New York. So if you live in or between those area's, you can't expect to see much snow because your area will be too warm in part because of the track of this low and also because the Atlantic warm air will invade these places and ruin their snow chances for this event. But in places like State College, Pennsylvania and Syracuse, New York, you will get snow, and yes, I will have to say it again, southern and central New England is likely to receive yet another significant dose of heavy snow midweek. The precipitation could start as rain in places such as Pittsburgh and area's below 1000 feet in elevation across the West Virginia, Pennsylvania, and New York mountains.
The precipitation should arrive as plain old rain in the I - 95 corridor middle - late day Tuesday. The moisture should arrive in eastern New York, eastern Pennsylvania, and New Jersey late Tuesday afternoon as well. Once again places below 1000 feet will most likely have rain except in locations north of Albany, where the precipitation type should be all snow. In interior New England, the moisture should arrive on Tuesday evening, as coastal area's of New England will see the moisture later in the evening or around Midnight on Wednesday. The precipitation will continue through the overnight hours and into Wednesday before ending midday Wednesday or Wednesday evening from southwest to northeast. The only time period of the storm that area's above 1000 feet will have to worry about precipitation type is the midday hours on Wednesday, as a mix could overspread the lower mountains of Pennsylvania and New York. Overall the event will be disruptive as significant snowfall amounts are possible and looking likely.
It is even possible some ice could occur in southern Pennsylvania, but this is looking unlikely. Plan for travel delays and / or school delays or closings across the impacted area's in our region of the US. So if you are wonder about total snow accumulations for this specific storm, here is a preliminary map of my predicted snowfall amounts in the Northeast United States region.
Once again there is still some uncertainty with the exact track of this system, which would really impact the possible snowfall totals in places like south central Pennsylvania, where at this point not much snowfall accumulation is looking possible due to the track and like I said the warm air that will bring up the temperatures across southern Pennsylvania and New Jersey, as will as the south coast of New England and the New York City area. But for this event across Pennsylvania and the southern tier of upstate New York, your elevation will likely make a large implication on how high (or low) your snowfall accumulation will likely turn out to be.
After this event it looks to get slightly warmer for Thursday, but then a large area of cold air will approach and come into our region bringing the temperatures below average to start off March, and though likely the entire part of early March, so I wouldn't give up just yet if I lived from DC to New York, as some storms look possible during this time period with cold air. I will have more in that in another update coming soon, or go to the 8 - 14 day outlook tab, which is where I posted an article on the cold air to start off March for all of the northeast, but for now, I would focus your attention on this event, especially if you are traveling in some way in the likely high impacted area's from this storm. I will have more updates in this winter storm leading up to it, but for now stay safe and check back to Northeast Weather Action or more updates in this event and many other events.