Friday, February 1, 2013

Update on Weekend Clippers

            You will get a small taste of snow this weekend is the southern area's of the northeast. There will be a weak clipper system that comes from the upper midwest, it will then sweep into the northeast and give snow to southern New York, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, eastern Kentucky, Maryland, New Jersey, and extreme southern New England. This will be on Saturday into early Sunday. After that there will be another weak clipper system. The snowfall totals should generally range from 1 to 3 inches with isolated higher amounts on the ridge tops, I know the nws out of Pittsburgh is saying more snow, but I disagree, this to me will be a very small event.

Thursday, January 31, 2013

Weekend Clipper System

          Here is a summary on this little weekend clipper system that will effect the northeast Saturday - Monday depending on what part of the northeast you live in. So this clipper will come in through Pennsylvania and West Virginia, and move ENE over to the Del-Mar-Va coast line and then shift to a northeasterly movement. After that this clipper system will move about 50 - 100 miles off Cape Cod and then continue to move NE. This storm looks like it will take advantage of the Atlantic and strengthen off the New Jersey coast and Long Island, so in a result, it looks like the heaviest snows will be in eastern New England. Here is a snowfall totals forecast for this clipper system.

Tuesday, January 29, 2013

Severe Weather Setup For Tomorrow

          To start I want to say, this will not be the average 1 - 3 day forecast you will typically hear in late January, so lets get started. There is a large area of low pressure moving across the eastern plains, the midwest, and the eastern portions of the southeast currently. This system is full of heavy rain and severe thunderstorms, with some lighter snow on the back side because trailing this area of wet weather is a cold front that is in part helping trigger these thunderstorms. This system will move east across the country and effect the Ohio Valley, the southern portions of the northeast, the middle Atlantic, and the majority of the southeast except central and southern Florida. This system will be full of heavy rain and severe thunderstorms caused by the warm air and the instability of the atmosphere. Here is a forecast map of the setup for tomorrow for the northeast United States.

          There area's in red have a 50% at seeing severe thunderstorms containing damaging winds from straight line winds. Also possibly some flooding. In orange there is a good chance for mainly heavy rain with some embedded strong storms. Tomorrow night there could be some light to moderate snows from Wisconsin to northern Pennsylvania. Here is a map of travel delays expected across the northeastern United States tomorrow.

Monday, January 28, 2013

Long Range Lookout

          As we have had a very active weather pattern for the past week, there is a short break at least in the wintry department. A warm up caused by a small ridge will warm the area's across the region to around 10 - 15 degrees above average for this time of year. Now this warm up will not last long at all. It will effect us Tuesday and Wednesday, before we cool down on Thursday. Unfortunately if you like wintry precipitation, during this time period there will be a big storm but it will be all rain except if you live in northern New England, where snow is possible along with some mix or even rain. After this event the temperatures will drop near 25 degrees across the region to highs below normal by around 5 - 10 degrees on Thursday.

          The temperature's will continue to get colder as the ridge exits the region and arctic air filters in from Canada. On Friday the highs should be a chilly 15 - 20 degrees below normal for the highs. For the weekend the temperature's could go up but highs will still be a good 7 - 12 degrees below normal. For the weekend we should have mainly dry conditions except for Sunday when a weak system will fly through New York and Pennsylvania possibly producing light snow accumulations, but this is still 5 or 6 days away so time will tell. Now, here comes the very interesting part of this forecast post.

          On Monday there could possibly be a very big snowstorm across the northeast that if this event plays out will come from the midwest. Temperatures for this possible event would be cold enough to produce snow except for possibly extreme southweastern Pennsylvania. But anyways this storm could be a huge storm and I wanted to show you a few models from the gfs runs. So below is the 00z gfs rum from today, Monday.

          Here is the 00z gfs model graphic at 204 hours. As you can pretty much see there is a big storm centered in extreme southwestern Pennsylvania. Also this storm has a very good size precipitation shield. Next a key factor also sits on the nao and what phase that will be in. The nao looks like it will be in a neutral phase which would most likely mean this storm would move west to east. However storms as we know can move in other directions but that is the average track of a storm. So you might be noticing that 540 line is pretty close to the northeast. Here is the temperature graphic that is from the 00z gfs as well.

          So here is the temperature forecast at same hour as the precipitation graphic was at. Now, you might be looking at this and notice something pretty big. Southwestern Pennsylvania is possibly too warm to snow, but this is still far out, but anywhere else is fine. Now below is the same model but now 12 hours past, this is at hour 216.

          Now we have a big storm off the coast that is spreading heavy moisture as far inland as central Pennsylvania and southern New England. Next you see the 540 line is also way farther south then the graphic before of the precipitation. Now here is the temperature forecast from the 00z gfs or the same hour of the graphic directly above.

          Now the temperatures have fell significantly across the entire northeast region. These temperatures combined with snow would be equivalent to very good snow ratio's. You see teens as south as extreme northern Maryland. This is very cold. So you really might be wondering, so how much snow could be possibly see out of this possible snowstorm event. Well here is the same model, the 00z gfs snowfall graphic for this storm. Now be sure to read on after this graphic because these will probably not be the real totals of this storm because of just how cold it will be.

          Now to start I just want to say, the snow that this indicates for area's like Somerset, Pennsylvania to Pittsburgh will already be on the ground in most spots in and between those two cities. Now the snow that this shows for central and eastern Pennsylvania as well as New Jersey is fresh. Now this shows what you think is just  4 - 6 inches for these area's, right? No, because it will likely be so cold and the ratios will be so high, you can multiply these amounts by about 1.5, so that 4 - 6 inch range is really about 6 - possibly 10 inches. Although this possible snowstorm is still far out, it's not as far out as you think, today is almost over so Tuesday this almost here, from Tuesday you only have 6 days until this possible event. But many model runs show this storm or hint toward the development of this storm. So keep here for the latest updates on this possible storm and other weather events.

Sunday, January 27, 2013

Update on Tomorrows Storm

     As you may already know, the pattern is starting to get active, we just had a small storm that effected the lower area's of the northeast on Friday. We are expecting a bigger and more impactful storm for tomorrow. It will contain a big wintry mix of precipitation across all area's of the northeast. This could result in very terrible travel conditions depending on where you are located. Read more to find all of the details about this dangerous storm that has already warranted many winter advisories, watches and warnings across the area.

          This storm will be pretty strong and should impact central and eastern Pennsylvania as well as the eastern parts of western New York with a possible significant ice event. The reason I'm not saying western Pennsylvania is because area's in the Appalachian mountains and over to Pittsburgh and Erie should get into the warmer first that is produced by the approaching ridge that is coming from the southwest. So in result the temperatures should rise and make this precipitation type be mainly rain for the entire storm with possibly a little ice to start in western Pennsylvania. So western Pennsylvania will not be effected significantly by this storm.

          Now this storm will move into central and eastern Pennsylvania as well as central New York, especially Watertown south. This storm could produce either some snow or freezing rain. This is likely to be a major hazard from about State College, Pennsylvania, east. The ice accumulations as a preliminary forecast should be about .15 - .20 of an inch of ice in cities like Syracuse, Williamsport, State College, Allentown, Scranton, Philadelphia, Harrisburg, and possibly Baltimore, how ever it could be slightly to warm in Baltimore to support freezing rain or snow.

          This storm will then move ENE into southern New England and hit with most likely snow first for Monday afternoon and early Monday night. After that this storm will then move farther into Southern New England. The precipitation type will likely switch over to freezing rain for Monday night in cities like Hartford,    Providence, Worcester, and Boston. When it comes in terms of New York City, they will likely have a short period of snow Monday afternoon and then switch over to freezing rain. To end the wintry precipitation it will likely be freezing rain until early Tuesday night. At this point everybody should have switched over to plain rain in New England, except central and northern Maine, where this storm should be all snow in these area's.

          So the area's that will be significantly effected by this storm like I said earlier but in addition, possibly extreme northeastern Ohio and northwestern Pennsylvania. Then when you move east once you get to State College, all places  to the east of there should be pounded with a big wintry mix from Chambersburg, Pennsylvania and State College, Pennsylvania, to the east. Now when you head into New Jersey, area's Trenton and north should have a pretty big ice event. Now when you head into northern New Jersey, you will see bout the same story as south central Pennsylvania and most of eastern Pennsylvania. That meaning a very big ice storm with a little snow to start.

          Now when you go into southern New England, it will be mainly snow to through interior southern New England until the later parts of Monday afternoon. On Monday night, the precipitation type in interior southern New England as well as central New England should be freezing rain or sleet but the coastal area's should be on the border of  freezing rain or just plain rain. Overall the area's with a big ice storm possible are from Chambersburg, Pennsylvania, to Manchester, New Hampshire. Area's in northern New England and extreme northern New York should stay all snow. Keep tabs on this storm because it will be very significant.
I will have rapid updates about this storm and other weather events. Below is an updated forecast map for this storm.

       Here is the 12z ECMWF model for snowfall accumulation for this storm to leave you.

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