We have been watching Invest 92L for several days now, and it looks like this system could start to get it's act together sometime very soon. During the day today, the low exited the Central America mainland, and moving at this time, northwest into the Western Gulf. The system will change direction within the day or early tomorrow, to more of a northerly track. By tomorrow, the storm could be a tropical depression, or even potentially a very low end tropical storm, which would be named Fernand. On Sunday, the system will likely be centered about 300 miles southeast of Brownsville, Texas. At this point the forecast is for by 5 PM Sunday, we should have Tropical Storm Fernand with winds at 5 PM Sunday at around 45 - 50 mph.
Overall between the next 36 and 60 hours, rapid strengthening is anticipated with the low pressure system, which would mean a confined circulation within the system with deep thunderstorms flaring up. Right now, the majority of the thunderstorm activity with Invest 92L is located east of the center. This is because of the dry air on the western side of the storm. Lets continue with the expected track and strength of this system. By the early morning hours on Monday, which would be around 60 hours out from now, we will be at the strongest point of the storm. The expect maximum sub-stained winds with the system 60 hours from now will likely be anywhere from 50 to 60 mph with gusts possibly as high as 65 or 70 mph.
But at this time the storm is nearing landfall, and will likely be about 250 miles east of Corpus Christi, Texas. The system will likely be moving north-northwest at this time, and about 200 - 250 miles from landfall. At Monday, 5 PM, the storm will likely be just several miles, meaning about 50 miles from landfall. The expected landfall time frame is between Monday afternoon and midnight Tuesday. The most northern track would be for this storm to make landfall around or just north of Houston. The locations with the highest threat of landfall are Galveston Bay and Corpus Christi. More than likely Galveston Bay. Now don't worry, this won't be anything like Ike in 2008, and this won't even be a hurricane. At landfall, the system will likely pack winds between 50 and 60 mph.
The state with the highest risk of a landfall tropical storm is definitely Texas. The probability of this storm hitting Mexico or Louisiana is about 20%. But this is still some questions to be answered and this projection is still out there in terms of how correct it will be. Overall, if the system moves in a west-northwesterly track, the conditions are more favorable for development, and if the low moves north-northwest, then the conditions become less conducive for development or any strengthening. This is one variable, because at this time we are expecting the storm to at first move west-northwest, which would encourage strengthening within the system. After that, we expect the low to generally move west-northwest as previously stated, which would mean it might not strengthen as much or at all. Real quick, some effects or a 50 - 60 mph tropical storm making landfall would/will be moderate beach erosion, obviously strong winds, about 5 - 8 feet storm serge, and of course heavy rains.
At this time, we shouldn't expect any evacuation to occur, and the hurricane gates along the coast most likely will not be closed. So over the next few days, you will certainly need to monitor this storm, because anytime now this low could be named Tropical Depression #6. It would be named TD #6 because it would be the sixth tropical depression of the Atlantic Hurricane Season. A few places that currently and will continue to provide up to the minute updates, forecasts, and projections on Invest 92L are of course of Tropical Alerts section, which provides models displaying track, strength, and the possible timings. Another resource where you can see updates on this system is of course the National Hurricane Center, and Spaghettimodels.com, which is generally for more advanced forecasters. So just stay tuned to the places I just named and if you live in the possibly effected areas, or anywhere in the path of this storm, make precautions now or very soon. Thanks for reading and please keep an eye on this system, as it will likely be the first land falling medium to even high end Tropical Storm. Have a great rest of your day and stay safe everyone!
Friday, August 16, 2013
Thursday, August 15, 2013
Is Summer Really Over? Find Out!
Is summer really over, a question being asked by many people across the northeast this week as below normal temperatures have been causing fall-like thoughts to come into peoples minds. Well the summer is not over yet, because in a few days the temperatures will make a comeback, rebounding into the 80's in most locations across the northeast. The warmest air will flow into the area by the early through middle parts of next week bringing like I said, widespread 80's throughout the region.
So summer is not over and the tropics are also proving that. If you would like to see everything you need on the tropics, just go to the Tropical Alerts tab. Thanks for reading and have a great rest of your day. Here is a model showing the expected highs during the summer warmth next week. Stay safe everyone!
Today's Weather Forecast (8/15/13)
Today will have a very short weather forecast, mainly because there is nothing to talk about. So lets start with the forecast weather conditions, partly cloudy skies will mainly be the general sky cover around the region with a very small chance of a shower anywhere. The start of the weekend will be very quiet, and that gives us time to track the tropics. If you didn't notice the background of the page yet, that's what we are focusing on here at Northeast Weather Action.
Today's high temperatures should be in the lower 70's in the mountains to the upper 70's in the southern Piedmont areas. That's the temperatures for today, but stay tuned because in only about a week our 2013 - 2014 Winter Outlook - 2nd Update will be released. Next, don't forget to stay right here for every update on the tropics. Thanks for reading and stay safe everyone, have a great rest of your day.
Today's high temperatures should be in the lower 70's in the mountains to the upper 70's in the southern Piedmont areas. That's the temperatures for today, but stay tuned because in only about a week our 2013 - 2014 Winter Outlook - 2nd Update will be released. Next, don't forget to stay right here for every update on the tropics. Thanks for reading and stay safe everyone, have a great rest of your day.
Wednesday, August 14, 2013
Tropical Update - August 14th, 2013
The tropics have been calm for the past several weeks, ever since Dorian. But they look to activate once again with currently two areas of interest in the tropical Atlantic. Lets start with the most important and impacting system, which is closer to home, especially in the southeast. An area of disturbed weather located in the Eastern Caribbean, is rather quickly moving northwest, will be impacted by land in the next day or two, and then will likely move back into the western Gulf of Mexico.
During it's time in the Gulf of Mexico, some strengthening may occur to the low pressure system, but it won't have much time to strengthen. The expected track is it to at first move northwest, and then after being impacted by Central America, curve to more of a northerly track. This particular system has a good chance if making some kind of landfall in the Texas through Alabama area. The intensity at landfall is still very much undetermined.
According to the National Hurricane Center, that tropical system has about a 70% chance of forming into a tropical entity. We will keep you updated on every new development on that storm system. Now lets get to the next system, which is now as off 11:00 PM on Wednesday Night, Tropical Depression #5. This depression is moving west-northwest at about 15 mph, and will likely change to just a western movement in a couple days.
We will have lots of time to track this syetem, but at this point it looks like it will be Dorian #2, possibly. But I mentioned this in my August Tropical Forecast, that the northern area of where tropical systems normally are in the Eastern and Central Atlantic, would be active. But anyway thanks for reading and stay tuned to Northeast Weather Action for the latest weather updates.
NOTICE: THE TROPIAL UPDATE PAGE WILL GO BACK ON TROPICAL ALERT, AND WILL INCLUDE EVERYTHING YOU NEED FOR THESE TWO TROPICAL INTERESTS, DEVELOPMENTS.
During it's time in the Gulf of Mexico, some strengthening may occur to the low pressure system, but it won't have much time to strengthen. The expected track is it to at first move northwest, and then after being impacted by Central America, curve to more of a northerly track. This particular system has a good chance if making some kind of landfall in the Texas through Alabama area. The intensity at landfall is still very much undetermined.
According to the National Hurricane Center, that tropical system has about a 70% chance of forming into a tropical entity. We will keep you updated on every new development on that storm system. Now lets get to the next system, which is now as off 11:00 PM on Wednesday Night, Tropical Depression #5. This depression is moving west-northwest at about 15 mph, and will likely change to just a western movement in a couple days.
We will have lots of time to track this syetem, but at this point it looks like it will be Dorian #2, possibly. But I mentioned this in my August Tropical Forecast, that the northern area of where tropical systems normally are in the Eastern and Central Atlantic, would be active. But anyway thanks for reading and stay tuned to Northeast Weather Action for the latest weather updates.
NOTICE: THE TROPIAL UPDATE PAGE WILL GO BACK ON TROPICAL ALERT, AND WILL INCLUDE EVERYTHING YOU NEED FOR THESE TWO TROPICAL INTERESTS, DEVELOPMENTS.
Sunday, August 11, 2013
Monday - Wednesday Weather Forecast (8/12/13 - 8/14/13)
This forecast is going to be short and to the point to start with. Generally on Monday, which could be tomorrow or today depending on when you read this, will feature mainly sunny skies with more clouds south with a possible shower south of New York City. Temperatures on Monday will be in the middle to upper 70's inland to lower 80's closer to the coast. Now of course the sea breeze will cool the immediate coast down. But that is the forecast for tomorrow, now lets get to Tuesday.
Tuesday will be the wettest day of this short term, three day forecast. A low will effect the northeast with some showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday with mainly cloudy skies across the region. Temperatures on Tuesday will likely be in the 70's mostly with a few lower 80's on Tuesday. So really you should just pretty much expect around the same temperatures both Monday as well as Tuesday.
Last but not least, here is the forecast for Wednesday. We will likely have a mixed bag on Wednesday. Temperatures should be cooler in Ohio, New York, West Virginia, Virginia, Pennsylvania, and Maryland. Highs in those states should only top out in the upper 60's to middle 70's with possibly upper 70's in Philly, but besides that is will be cooler than normal. In New Jersey, Delaware, and New England, temperatures should top out in the upper 70's, with obviously cooler temperatures in Northern Maine.
But really temperatures will be more below average more in the states that mainly don't touch the ocean. Weather on Wednesday should be mainly sunny, with a few clouds possible anywhere. Also, just to note mountain locations in any state will likely be in the middle 60's to low 70's, depending on elevation. So that's a wrap to your three day forecast, thanks for reading. Don't forget to stay tuned to Northeast Weather Action for the latest weather updates, forecast, and outlooks. Stay safe and have a great rest of your day!
Tuesday will be the wettest day of this short term, three day forecast. A low will effect the northeast with some showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday with mainly cloudy skies across the region. Temperatures on Tuesday will likely be in the 70's mostly with a few lower 80's on Tuesday. So really you should just pretty much expect around the same temperatures both Monday as well as Tuesday.
Last but not least, here is the forecast for Wednesday. We will likely have a mixed bag on Wednesday. Temperatures should be cooler in Ohio, New York, West Virginia, Virginia, Pennsylvania, and Maryland. Highs in those states should only top out in the upper 60's to middle 70's with possibly upper 70's in Philly, but besides that is will be cooler than normal. In New Jersey, Delaware, and New England, temperatures should top out in the upper 70's, with obviously cooler temperatures in Northern Maine.
But really temperatures will be more below average more in the states that mainly don't touch the ocean. Weather on Wednesday should be mainly sunny, with a few clouds possible anywhere. Also, just to note mountain locations in any state will likely be in the middle 60's to low 70's, depending on elevation. So that's a wrap to your three day forecast, thanks for reading. Don't forget to stay tuned to Northeast Weather Action for the latest weather updates, forecast, and outlooks. Stay safe and have a great rest of your day!
P.S. - Normal Posting will resume on Wednesday Night.
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