Tuesday, September 17, 2013

Is Fall Here For Good? Find Out!

          Over the past few days into today when you took a step out the door, it has felt more like October, which is of course next month. So why have the weather conditions been this cool? At first, over the weekend a cold front made it's way down from Canada, which held high temperatures across the area to a maximum of 70 degrees. But normally troughs only last for a couple days, and then are out of here. Well, yesterday a reinforcing shot of fall weather flew down from Canada and once again provided below average temperatures. Look at tonight, widespread 30's in most inland locations anywhere from the Mason - Dixon line of Pennsylvania and Maryland to Springfield, Massachusetts. In Burlington and Caribou, temperatures could drop down into the 20's, causing freezes in Northern New England and Northern New York.

          So the question comes with all of this and also just the time of year, if fall here for good? Well, the answer may upset some people including me, which is no, it's not. The end of this week will feature slightly warmer temperatures, possibly up in the upper 70's, depending on where you are located. But then, by Sunday and especially into Monday of next week, cooler temperatures are back. So when will the warmth return for longer than a few days? Well most likely the end of next week. A ridge in the central plains will likely take several days to move through the midwest and into the northeast US, but it will find it's way over here some way or another. Just like I said , this is a long way out, but we are very certain that fall will fade away eventually. Here is the GFS model showing warmer temperatures on Friday September 28th. The model says Saturday, but Saturday 00Z means later in the day on Friday.

          As you can see, this model shows widespread middle to upper 70's. Continuing on, it's not just this model that indicates late summer-like temperatures will be back. So  to wrap things up, just hang in there because it looks like this warm up won't last long, but we only have moderate confidence on that. remember to stay warm tonight though because in most regions of the area, if there was any precipitation it could snow tonight. But we are not expecting any of that just yet! If you have not seen our 2013 - 2014 Active Winter Storm Tracks Forecast, it's the post below this one and I encourage you to read it. Keep tuned to Northeast Weather Action for more interesting and useful weather updates, forecasts, and outlooks. Thanks for reading and have a great and safe rest of your day everyone!

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