We have been watching Invest 92L for several days now, and it looks like this system could start to get it's act together sometime very soon. During the day today, the low exited the Central America mainland, and moving at this time, northwest into the Western Gulf. The system will change direction within the day or early tomorrow, to more of a northerly track. By tomorrow, the storm could be a tropical depression, or even potentially a very low end tropical storm, which would be named Fernand. On Sunday, the system will likely be centered about 300 miles southeast of Brownsville, Texas. At this point the forecast is for by 5 PM Sunday, we should have Tropical Storm Fernand with winds at 5 PM Sunday at around 45 - 50 mph.
Overall between the next 36 and 60 hours, rapid strengthening is anticipated with the low pressure system, which would mean a confined circulation within the system with deep thunderstorms flaring up. Right now, the majority of the thunderstorm activity with Invest 92L is located east of the center. This is because of the dry air on the western side of the storm. Lets continue with the expected track and strength of this system. By the early morning hours on Monday, which would be around 60 hours out from now, we will be at the strongest point of the storm. The expect maximum sub-stained winds with the system 60 hours from now will likely be anywhere from 50 to 60 mph with gusts possibly as high as 65 or 70 mph.
But at this time the storm is nearing landfall, and will likely be about 250 miles east of Corpus Christi, Texas. The system will likely be moving north-northwest at this time, and about 200 - 250 miles from landfall. At Monday, 5 PM, the storm will likely be just several miles, meaning about 50 miles from landfall. The expected landfall time frame is between Monday afternoon and midnight Tuesday. The most northern track would be for this storm to make landfall around or just north of Houston. The locations with the highest threat of landfall are Galveston Bay and Corpus Christi. More than likely Galveston Bay. Now don't worry, this won't be anything like Ike in 2008, and this won't even be a hurricane. At landfall, the system will likely pack winds between 50 and 60 mph.
The state with the highest risk of a landfall tropical storm is definitely Texas. The probability of this storm hitting Mexico or Louisiana is about 20%. But this is still some questions to be answered and this projection is still out there in terms of how correct it will be. Overall, if the system moves in a west-northwesterly track, the conditions are more favorable for development, and if the low moves north-northwest, then the conditions become less conducive for development or any strengthening. This is one variable, because at this time we are expecting the storm to at first move west-northwest, which would encourage strengthening within the system. After that, we expect the low to generally move west-northwest as previously stated, which would mean it might not strengthen as much or at all. Real quick, some effects or a 50 - 60 mph tropical storm making landfall would/will be moderate beach erosion, obviously strong winds, about 5 - 8 feet storm serge, and of course heavy rains.
At this time, we shouldn't expect any evacuation to occur, and the hurricane gates along the coast most likely will not be closed. So over the next few days, you will certainly need to monitor this storm, because anytime now this low could be named Tropical Depression #6. It would be named TD #6 because it would be the sixth tropical depression of the Atlantic Hurricane Season. A few places that currently and will continue to provide up to the minute updates, forecasts, and projections on Invest 92L are of course of Tropical Alerts section, which provides models displaying track, strength, and the possible timings. Another resource where you can see updates on this system is of course the National Hurricane Center, and Spaghettimodels.com, which is generally for more advanced forecasters. So just stay tuned to the places I just named and if you live in the possibly effected areas, or anywhere in the path of this storm, make precautions now or very soon. Thanks for reading and please keep an eye on this system, as it will likely be the first land falling medium to even high end Tropical Storm. Have a great rest of your day and stay safe everyone!
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