Friday, May 31, 2013

Thursday, May 30, 2013

Possible Severe Weather Outbreak Sunday Into Sunday Night

       
          As severe weather is beginning to become more common throughout the area, the title of the article may not shock you. Yes, another severe weather outbreak looks to be coming through the pipeline for Sunday, into Sunday night. The models are mainly in agreement except for the morning Euro that only shows the severe weather in one specific area, which looks to be off. But all other models are in agreement that a decent size severe weather event will take place.

          To start off, lets look at some factors that are going into my thinking. The first one if the cape, which looks to be favorable for severe thunderstorms on Sunday into Sunday night, so that variable is more towards a more severe weather. The next variable is the temperatures. Now right now, it is scorching outside with temperatures will above average and more summer-like. Well the temperatures look to stay this way into Sunday, with the lows Sunday night only in the 60's. But that's before the cold front moves through, which is one of the factors that will be mentioned.

          The next factor will be when the cold front moves though. After the cold front passes, the severe threat will decrease, so depending on when the cold front moves through the area is will affect the timings. After that, the last big factor is the amount of moisture. But the supply of moisture for thunderstorms to use up looks very large on Sunday into Sunday night, as in some areas, mainly across the northern region of the area, some heavy rain could just fall. So these are the general factors that are going into this forecast and this possible outbreak. Now lets look at some weather models and see what they indicate, and then I will show you all my forecast map, which could possibly change, but for now, here are the models and my forecast.
So lets start with the GFS model, here is the 12z GFS at hour 78, which is Sunday at 2:00 PM.



          As you can see, the model is hinting at something. What it's hinting at is severe weather, as you most likely could have guessed. So let me summarize the model. It's showing severe weather from West Virginia to northern New York. The red in Maine is seen almost everyday somewhere. But the main event is from northern New York to southern Pennsylvania. But the area most prone to storms in the event will be from southern PA to central New York. There will likely be several severe thunderstorms and possibly a few tornadoes. Now here is the euro model for Sunday night at 8 PM.


          The euro model really shows it's average northeastern US night based outbreak. It once again shows severe weather in southern Pennsylvania, through northeastern PA. So with all of the factors going into my forecast, here is my forecast idea for this event. Thanks for reading and be sure to stay here at Northeast Weather action for the latest forecasts and outlooks for this event and all other weather events here in the northeast.





Article posted at 4:42 PM EST.

Monday, May 27, 2013

Will It Be Cold Or Warm After Heat Wave? Find Out!

          I have talked and posted a lot about the heat wave that s coming from the middle of this week through Sunday, but never talked spoke about what is coming after the heat. Well it looks like summer - like temperatures will continue after this event. I am mainly using the models to be able to say this information because they are all very confident that temperatures after the heat wave will remain 5 - 10 degrees above average. The main reason the reason this heat wave will end is because of a cold front that will pass through the region next Monday. But going back to how I use the models, for example one model I like to use is the GFS, so here is a model I selected from the GFS which shows temperatures 204 hours out, which is next Tuesday afternoon, after the heat wave ends.


          Now as you can clearly see, the summer warmth will not fully exit. Temperatures will likely stay in the 70's from Maine to Massachusetts, and then from Connecticut south, the low 80's could hang around. Temperatures this time of year should be anywhere from the high 70's in southern Pennsylvania to the low 70's in southern New Hampshire. So overall, the GFS has the temperatures staying around 5 degrees above average. Now here is a ECMWF model, which shows a slightly different situation setting up after the heat wave.


          Really, the 12Z euro shows around average to even slightly below average temperatures after the heat wave. This particular model shows temperatures at the height of the day on June 6th. But temperatures on the euro are not the much cooler. To summarize the euro, temperatures will stay around average after the heat wave, and then the confidence after about June 6th in temperatures go down. The last thing I wanted to show is the Climate Prediction Center's 8 - 14 day temperature outlook, here is their forecast.


          With the CPC's forecast, they have almost the whole nation in above average temperatures, but the farthest above normal temperatures are expected to be located in the northeast. So the warmth will certainly not leave after the heat wave does on Sunday. Thanks for reading and be sure to tune into Northeast Weather Action to keep updated on this event and many other weather forecasts and outlooks that come out, stay safe!

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New Severe Threats Forecast For Tomorrow And Wednesday

          Now originally, the thinking was that this particular severe weather event that comes tomorrow and Wednesday would not be large at all. But the forecast has really changed, and so have the models, so lets start with tomorrow's severe threat indexes. Tomorrow will feature a widespread severe weather event, not an outbreak, but definitely close to one when it comes in terms of the northeast's standards. There are three possible characteristics that tomorrow could have. The first one and the most likely is that widespread severe thunderstorm will be throughout areas from Cleveland and Columbus, to Harrisburg and Williamsport, Pennsylvania. Severe thunderstorms could contain damaging winds and hail in diameter of quarters, and possibly larger.

          But after all of the severe thunderstorms pass through this region, it's likely that the will all loose their severe characteristics, and then combine into a large area of heavy rain in eastern Pennsylvania, that will move into New Jersey. The second possibility is that the thunderstorms will be widespread through the whole region and not loose intensity when they move into eastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey. The third possible event that could take place, is that everything could just be heavy rain after Pittsburgh, PA. This solution is highly unlikely because of the whole setup for tomorrow. Here is the updated severe weather threats index for tomorrow, followed by a future radar model.



          This is not the end of the severe weather yet, because it looks like there could also be some intense thunderstorms on Wednesday. Although the threat levels are slightly lower, severe thunderstorms are still possible. The area with storms also looks to be a little farther to the north then tomorrows event. Really, on Wednesday thunderstorms will be more scattered, and not as numerous. So here are the severe threats for tomorrow, followed by the threat level definitions used here at Northeast Weather Action. Stay safe and be sure to tune into Northeast Weather Action for the latest updated forecasts and weather outlooks!



P.S. - The stay connected page will switch to severe central starting tomorrow afternoon at about 3:35 PM.





Heat Is On The Way!


Updated Tuesday - Wednesday Severe Threats

          As for last week when we had a three day long severe weather outbreak with tornadoes here in the northeast, this severe weather event will not be nearly as intense or as widespread as the severe weather last week. Like I said, as supposed to last weeks severe event, models have this event being a mainly southern New York state, south event. This is mainly because of the temperatures and cloud cover, causing the cape and instability to not be favorable for severe thunderstorms to flare up across areas like New England and Syracuse, New York, north on Tuesday. Now there is one area in and around the Ohio Great Lakes region, connecting the the Midwest severe weather that will be more significant, causing the forecast to have that area. So overall Tuesday will not be the biggest day we have ever seen, as will Wednesday not be. Here is Tuesday's Severe Threat index, then the updated Storm Prediction Center probabilities forecast, followed be a future radar model from the 00z NAM run.





          Now really, the same information applies for Wednesday, everything except the heat! On Wednesday, the heat will be turned on, as will many people will turn the AC on. On Wednesday, the thunderstorms will be scattered and very isolated across the area. Although, the threat really moves to the New Jersey and New England area because as does the majority of the precipitation. Below is the Wednesday's Severe Threat Index forecast. Thanks for reading and tune into Northeast Weather Action for weather forecast, predictions, and much more weather related information, thank you!



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