Updated 7 Day Rainfall Forecast

          Overall significant rain is still expected to fall everywhere in the region. Here is the updated 7 day rainfall forecast.

Today's New Severe Thunderstorm Threats Forecast

         Today will likely be the worst day of the week when it comes in terms of strong to severe thunderstorms. There will likely be widespread thunderstorms especially in New York and Pennsylvania. The storms could pack damaging winds and very heavy downpours. Here is the updated forecast for the t-storm threats index.

Wednesday's Updated Severe Thunerstorm Index

          The threat today will be the smallest of the week overall. Isolated strong storms could be upon some areas but no real widespread severe t-storm threat is expected. But stay right here to Northeast Weather Action because it is looking like tomorrow and Friday could hold significant threats for severe thunderstorms! Here is today's updated severe thunderstorm index.

Monday - Wednesday Severe Thunderstorm Threats Forecast

          The chance is there for strong to severe thunderstorms because of the hot and humid air. These factors will provide instability in the atmosphere and flare up thunderstorms. The threat is not all that big and the thunderstorms will not be that widespread. Here is the forecast for tomorrow through Wednesday.

July 2013 Weather Forecasts Are Here!

          Overall from the indications of the models and patterns, we here in the northeast will see above average precipitation and above average temperatures in the northern part of our area. Here are the outlooks for July of 2013, I hope you like them!

Possible Severe Thunderstorm Watch To Be Issued

Mesoscale Discussion 1186

< Previous MD

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1186 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1201 PM CDT SUN JUN 23 2013 AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN THROUGH NERN NY...CNTRL VT AND NH CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 231701Z - 231900Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON FROM SWRN THROUGH ECNTRL/NERN NY INTO CNTRL VT AND NH. THIS ACTIVITY MAY POSE A MODEST RISK FOR MAINLY LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS. SOME SMALL HAIL MIGHT ALSO OCCUR. OVERALL SEVERE RISK DOES NOT APPEAR PARTICULARLY ROBUST...SO ANY WW ISSUANCE WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON CONVECTIVE TRENDS. DISCUSSION...EARLY THIS AFTERNOON STRONG DIABATIC WARMING OF THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IS OCCURRING OVER MUCH OF NY AND SRN NEW ENGLAND WITH MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS AND TEMPERATURES RISING THROUGH THE 80S. THE LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS MLCAPE FROM 1500-2000 J/KG...AND CUMULUS CONGESTUS IS EVIDENT ALONG SW-NE ORIENTED CLOUD STREETS FROM SWRN THROUGH NCNTRL NY. CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IS SUFFICIENTLY WEAK AS TEMPERATURES WARM TO UPPER 80S FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION ALONG LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATIONS. THIS REGION RESIDES WITHIN A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE WITH WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR AND MODEST DEEP LAYER WINDS SUPPORTIVE OF MULTICELLS. THE WEAK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY ULTIMATELY SERVE AS A LIMITING FACTOR FOR A MORE ROBUST SEVERE THREAT. HOWEVER...THE DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER WITH STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST A MODEST THREAT FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS...ESPECIALLY IF STORMS CAN GROW UPSCALE INTO SMALL CLUSTERS OR LINE SEGMENTS. ..DIAL/KERR.. 06/23/2013 ATTN...WFO...GYX...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF... LAT...LON 42637765 43127655 43637533 44247309 44017174 43387175 42537568 42327737 42637765

Heat Wave's Forecast Highs

          Monday through Wednesday will likely be the hottest days overall throughout the area with highs topping out in the 80's and 90's region wide. Little or no rain is expected in the time period with possibly some pop-up thunderstorms because just of how hot it will be. On Thursday - Saturday, highs could still be looming around 90 from Southern Pennsylvania, and south. Here are the forecast highs for Monday - Wednesday.

All Around Weather Analysis - June 22, 2013

Severe T-Storm Index: 
Low Activity

A slight risk for strong to severe thunderstorms runs from Sunday through Wednesday. Minimal activity is expected and chance of impact on your area is low. From Thursday through next weekend, a slight - moderate risk exists for Pennsylvania. New Jersey, New York, as well as all of Southern New England. Isolated activity is possible with risk of impact low to moderate. Main threats: damaging winds in excess of 60 mph and small hail. Probability of a tornado: nearly 0%. Preparation activity needed is nearly nothing, normal thunderstorms could occur in this time period.

Heat Index:
Significant Activity

Slightly above average temperatures are expected throughout the course of the weekend with highs topping out from the 70's to the 80's region wide. A medium duration heat wave is anticipated starting Monday of next weekend, and stretching through midweek, ending Wednesday or Thursday, depending on location. Temperatures will range from 80's in the north to 90's in the south. Thursday - Saturday is expected to have dropping temperatures, about 2 degrees per day. Be sure to drink lots of water and remain hydrated when being exposed to high heat.

Precipitation Index: 
Low - Medium Activity

Little to no precipitation is expected from today - Sunday. an increased probability of precipitation will occur Monday and last into the mid to late week as instability is widespread through atmosphere. Maximum chance of precipitation in region: 30%. From Thursday - Saturday, a low pressure system will enter the Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Western New York area. Expected precipitation amounts range from a half an inch in the Northeastern tier on Pennsylvania to near an inch in Northwestern Pennsylvania. Maximum probability of rainfall at current point: 50%.

Drought Index: 
Low Activity

An abnormally dry time period with the lack of precipitation could lead to a lack of plant growth. No drought conditions are expected at this time in any part of the region. A relief is likely to come later next week. Area most at risk of below normal precipitation is in the lakes region on Central New York. Any change in forecast has a minimum chance of occurrence.

Tropical Index: 
Medium Activity

No tropical activity is expected to to the unfavorable upper and mid level wind conditions at this point, causing increased levels of shear across common tropical development region. Long range index includes an increased possibility for tropical development in the Caribbean. Probability of tropical entity forming in next 10 - 15 days remains around moderate. Keep informed on all development by keeping track of all National Hurricane Center updates and forecasts.

Long Range Lookout: What Will The Weather Be Like After The Heat Wave? Find Out!

          I'm sure by now you must of heard about the upcoming heat wave that will be sitting on the northeast. After that, little to no precipitation is expected to fall during this period, which could force you to use those sprinklers. But after the heat wave, what comes next? Well there are various answers to that question and so lets get started. The start of the long range lookout obviously starts after the heat wave passes on by. So lets use the golden tool to get the answer to that question, weather models. Lets start with the ecmwf model, or what we like to call the euro model. The euro model indicates a wetter and more active pattern along with below normal temperatures for this time of year starting the later part of next week. It shows storms one after another impacting nearly the same areas with rainstorms and overall has the whole region is below average in terms of temperatures.

          I would think you might want to figure out that area that could possibly receive significant amounts of rain. Well this region sits anywhere from Northern Ohio, through Western New York, and almost all of the state of Pennsylvania. Keep in mind, this area could easily be bumped around and that nothing is nailed in stone, or guaranteed yet. This like I said would be late next week, but the below normal temperatures wouldn't set in until about the weekend before the 4th of July. But lets get back to the precipitation part of this event and then later I will go more into detail about the upcoming temperatures. So going back to the models and how they continue to like a certain region to get the most rainfall. Here is the second rainstorm out of the two on the euro model.

          You can really see both storms pretty good in this model. First you see the exiting storm off of the Southern New England - Long Island Coastline. After that the second storm is mainly in Pennsylvania and about to enter New Jersey. Next you also notice Western New York receiving rain. Generally a good 1 to 2 inches of rain are possible from both storms combined anywhere from Central and Southern New Jersey, into all of Pennsylvania, as well as Northern Ohio and Western New York. And then around a half an inch to and inch of rain is looking likely from Northern New Jersey, down onto the Del-Mar-Va and into Maryland, through West Virginia. So that is the story for the precipitation side of things, now lets get to the temperatures that are looking likely after this heat wave.

          By two weekends from now, cooler temperatures, mainly in the 60's and 70's will set in across the northeast. What is looking like to play it is a trough from Ontario up in Canada will likely dive south into the Great Lakes and northeast, reducing the temperatures significantly. In a way just kicking the heat out the door, or shoving back into the southeast US. Temperatures will likely range from the mid to upper 60's in Northern New England and Northern New York, and then lower 70's across Central and Southern New England, as well as Central and Southern, as well as Western New York. After that lower to mid 70's are expected to occur from the Appalachian Mountains in Western and Central Pennsylvania, to the Poconos. Lastly the mid to upper 70's are looking most likely in all of New Jersey, and on into Eastern PA and the Del-Mar-Va. Here is what I am describing in a map form, from the euro model.

          Now this map could be under-doing the temperatures just a little, as the euro usually does. But I think overall you can kind of get the sense that cooler temperatures are on the way, but first we have to get through the heat wave. Now I keep on saying adjectives like cooler, and below normal. I really want to make you second guess those words because I said this a few weeks ago and to me, it almost sounds like I am saying it's going to be so cold you are going to need jackets. No, what I am trying to say is cooler than average temperatures are coming, out normals this time of year range from the mid 80's to the low 70's, of course depending on where you are located. After that, we have no good idea on how long these below normal temperatures are going to last, so don't get out of that summer mood! Thank you for reading and be sure to stay tuned to Northeast Weather Action for the latest weather forecasts and updates! Have a great weekend and enjoy that pool next week! 

Today's Weather Forecast

          With the weekend approaching. weather will be comfortable across the northeast. With highs generally in the 70's and 80's, with nothing falling from the sky, you should be good to go for all outdoor plans. Have a great day and don't forget to take advantage of today's temperatures before the heat wave rolls in! Here are today's highs . . .

A Heat Wave Is On The Way! Find Out When and How Hot!

I take you through the upcoming heat wave approaching the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic and detail when and how hot it will get! Please like Northeast Weather Action on facebook!

Weekly Weather Update

Find out what kind of weather is on the way here in the Eastern US, is a heat wave on the way for the beginning of summer? Find Out Don't forget to like Northeast Weather Action on facebook!

Tomorrow's Severe T-Storm Threats

             Tomorrow will definitely not pack the magnitude and widespread nature of strong and severe thunderstorms as today, but there will still be a decent threat of storms. The area with the highest threat of strong to severe thunderstorms tomorrow will be from central Ohio and into southern Pennsylvania, then sliding over to the Jersey Shore. Damaging winds and small hail could be imbeded in severe thunderstorms, so watch out for the threat of that. this forecast also has futurecast radars for those who love graphics! Stay safe and have a great evening!

So How Cloudy Is The Northeast Compared To The Rest Of The US? Find Out!

          This is a question you may have asked yourself many times when a cloudy and gloomy day is upon you. So here are the real answers to the interesting question. I found this dusty old NOAA chart from almost 20 years ago that likely has then answer. This map was generated by sunshine sensors which are located at almost every observations location. To summarize, it looks like our region here in the northeast is one of the cloudier areas across the country. Where mountain ranges are really determine the amount of sunshine, as you can clearly see for example the Appalachian Mountains in eastern West Virginia. But in the desert southwest, only around 3 out of 10 days have clouds in the sky. But in the Pacific Northwest, 8 out of every 10 days are cloudy. After that, storm tracks have to do somewhat with this forecast, because we see many storms here in the northeast and Great Lakes, more cloudy days are the result.

          Here is the annual average amounts of precipitation across the lower 48, and as you can see, this map is somewhat coordinated with the map above.

 

Today’s Severe T-Storm Threats

          It's has been several days since we have had a large scale severe weather event. But today looks to end the cold streak, with a severe thunderstorm watch already prompted across southern New England and eastern New York. With severe thunderstorms firing up, today could have more of an expected severe threat because of the original thinking, while was the majority of the action in terms of severe weather was going to stay Maryland, and to the south. Here is the new map for today's severe thunderstorm threats, and read after the map to see the descriptions of each category.

Extreme Threat: There is an 80 - 99 percent chance you will see a severe thunderstorm within 30 miles.

Significant Threat: There is a 60 - 79 percent chance you will see a severe thunderstorm within 30 miles.

High Threat: There is a 40 - 59 percent percent chance you will see a severe thunderstorm within 30 miles.

Moderate Threat: There is a 20 - 39 percent percent chance you will see a severe thunderstorm within 30 miles.

Low Threat: There is a 1 - 19 percent percent chance you will see a severe thunderstorm within 30 miles.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch In Southern New England

Sunday - Monday WPC Total Precipitation Forecast

          As if we need more rain, but don't worry, this event is not going to be like the latest rainstorms we have just had. The rain from this event will be centered in Western new York, where there will be straight rain, and into New England. But as you head into Ohio, PA, and into New Jersey, you run the risk for strong  and/or severe storms.

7 - 14 Day Temperatures Forecast

          As the first third of June has been average to even slightly below average in terms of temperatures, some summer heat is finally on the way. Only eight days until summer and it will certainly feel like summer from the 22nd through the 29th.

Saturday's Temperatures and Weather Forecast

          The first part of your weekend is looking great with widespread 60's and 70's with great weather conditions!

What Happened To The Severe Weather Today?

        As yesterday, the thought was that today we were going to have one of the strongest and most intense severe weather outbreaks of the year. Everyone from the Storm Prediction Center to Northeast Weather Action predicted this. So why didn't we get severe thunderstorms? Well that is a very good question and has a few general answers. I'm sure people from Southern Pennsylvania to Northern Virginia were woken up by a line of severe thunderstorms this morning. Well that line of severe thunderstorms really robbed the atmosphere of all of the instability and shear that was predicted to be present throughout today. After that line of showers and storms passed through the region, we were socked in by clouds which completely ruined the chances of severe thunderstorm formation for today. So in general, the line this morning acted as a shield and protected the area from severe storms.

          When you look at the radar, you see intense severe thunderstorms in Virginia or off the coast. Well now you might ask, why do they have severe storms and we have nothing? Very good question once again, but yet again has answers. The reason is because those locations didn't see the squall line in which we did. This in which opened the door for severe weather and didn't close the door on instability, which we here in the Northeast, had the door closed on by. Many people are grateful for this occurrence, but for the storm chasers, no no no, not today! As always be sure to stay tuned to Northeast Weather Action for the latest updates, forecasts, and outlooks on all northeast weather action!