Tomorrow's Beach Forecasts

          Tuesday should be a pretty nice day for our regions beaches. Overall mostly sunny skies will be the ruler with some very isolated thunderstorms, that if happen will not ruin your beach day! Have a great Tuesday and stay right here for the latest severe thunderstorm updates, here are the forecasts!

Possible Severe Thunderstorm Watch To Be Issued

Mesoscale Discussion 1186

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1186 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1201 PM CDT SUN JUN 23 2013 AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN THROUGH NERN NY...CNTRL VT AND NH CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 231701Z - 231900Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON FROM SWRN THROUGH ECNTRL/NERN NY INTO CNTRL VT AND NH. THIS ACTIVITY MAY POSE A MODEST RISK FOR MAINLY LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS. SOME SMALL HAIL MIGHT ALSO OCCUR. OVERALL SEVERE RISK DOES NOT APPEAR PARTICULARLY ROBUST...SO ANY WW ISSUANCE WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON CONVECTIVE TRENDS. DISCUSSION...EARLY THIS AFTERNOON STRONG DIABATIC WARMING OF THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IS OCCURRING OVER MUCH OF NY AND SRN NEW ENGLAND WITH MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS AND TEMPERATURES RISING THROUGH THE 80S. THE LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS MLCAPE FROM 1500-2000 J/KG...AND CUMULUS CONGESTUS IS EVIDENT ALONG SW-NE ORIENTED CLOUD STREETS FROM SWRN THROUGH NCNTRL NY. CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IS SUFFICIENTLY WEAK AS TEMPERATURES WARM TO UPPER 80S FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION ALONG LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATIONS. THIS REGION RESIDES WITHIN A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE WITH WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR AND MODEST DEEP LAYER WINDS SUPPORTIVE OF MULTICELLS. THE WEAK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY ULTIMATELY SERVE AS A LIMITING FACTOR FOR A MORE ROBUST SEVERE THREAT. HOWEVER...THE DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER WITH STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST A MODEST THREAT FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS...ESPECIALLY IF STORMS CAN GROW UPSCALE INTO SMALL CLUSTERS OR LINE SEGMENTS. ..DIAL/KERR.. 06/23/2013 ATTN...WFO...GYX...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF... LAT...LON 42637765 43127655 43637533 44247309 44017174 43387175 42537568 42327737 42637765

Long Range Lookout: What Will The Weather Be Like After The Heat Wave? Find Out!

          I'm sure by now you must of heard about the upcoming heat wave that will be sitting on the northeast. After that, little to no precipitation is expected to fall during this period, which could force you to use those sprinklers. But after the heat wave, what comes next? Well there are various answers to that question and so lets get started. The start of the long range lookout obviously starts after the heat wave passes on by. So lets use the golden tool to get the answer to that question, weather models. Lets start with the ecmwf model, or what we like to call the euro model. The euro model indicates a wetter and more active pattern along with below normal temperatures for this time of year starting the later part of next week. It shows storms one after another impacting nearly the same areas with rainstorms and overall has the whole region is below average in terms of temperatures.

          I would think you might want to figure out that area that could possibly receive significant amounts of rain. Well this region sits anywhere from Northern Ohio, through Western New York, and almost all of the state of Pennsylvania. Keep in mind, this area could easily be bumped around and that nothing is nailed in stone, or guaranteed yet. This like I said would be late next week, but the below normal temperatures wouldn't set in until about the weekend before the 4th of July. But lets get back to the precipitation part of this event and then later I will go more into detail about the upcoming temperatures. So going back to the models and how they continue to like a certain region to get the most rainfall. Here is the second rainstorm out of the two on the euro model.

          You can really see both storms pretty good in this model. First you see the exiting storm off of the Southern New England - Long Island Coastline. After that the second storm is mainly in Pennsylvania and about to enter New Jersey. Next you also notice Western New York receiving rain. Generally a good 1 to 2 inches of rain are possible from both storms combined anywhere from Central and Southern New Jersey, into all of Pennsylvania, as well as Northern Ohio and Western New York. And then around a half an inch to and inch of rain is looking likely from Northern New Jersey, down onto the Del-Mar-Va and into Maryland, through West Virginia. So that is the story for the precipitation side of things, now lets get to the temperatures that are looking likely after this heat wave.

          By two weekends from now, cooler temperatures, mainly in the 60's and 70's will set in across the northeast. What is looking like to play it is a trough from Ontario up in Canada will likely dive south into the Great Lakes and northeast, reducing the temperatures significantly. In a way just kicking the heat out the door, or shoving back into the southeast US. Temperatures will likely range from the mid to upper 60's in Northern New England and Northern New York, and then lower 70's across Central and Southern New England, as well as Central and Southern, as well as Western New York. After that lower to mid 70's are expected to occur from the Appalachian Mountains in Western and Central Pennsylvania, to the Poconos. Lastly the mid to upper 70's are looking most likely in all of New Jersey, and on into Eastern PA and the Del-Mar-Va. Here is what I am describing in a map form, from the euro model.

          Now this map could be under-doing the temperatures just a little, as the euro usually does. But I think overall you can kind of get the sense that cooler temperatures are on the way, but first we have to get through the heat wave. Now I keep on saying adjectives like cooler, and below normal. I really want to make you second guess those words because I said this a few weeks ago and to me, it almost sounds like I am saying it's going to be so cold you are going to need jackets. No, what I am trying to say is cooler than average temperatures are coming, out normals this time of year range from the mid 80's to the low 70's, of course depending on where you are located. After that, we have no good idea on how long these below normal temperatures are going to last, so don't get out of that summer mood! Thank you for reading and be sure to stay tuned to Northeast Weather Action for the latest weather forecasts and updates! Have a great weekend and enjoy that pool next week! 

Expected High Temperatures During Height Of Heat Wave

          With the first official heat wave possible for areas as far north as New England, this event will give you a warm welcome to summer, literally. A heat wave is an event with three or more 90 degree days in a row, and this is possible from Monday through Thursday of next week. So get ready for the heat and the sun will also be out. Barely no rain is expected during this period. Possibly some pop-up thunderstorms are possible just because it is going to be so hot! Here is the forecast map for how hot the northeast will get!

A Heat Wave Is On The Way! Find Out When and How Hot!

I take you through the upcoming heat wave approaching the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic and detail when and how hot it will get! Please like Northeast Weather Action on facebook!

Weekly Weather Update

Find out what kind of weather is on the way here in the Eastern US, is a heat wave on the way for the beginning of summer? Find Out Don't forget to like Northeast Weather Action on facebook!

What Happened To The Severe Weather Today?

        As yesterday, the thought was that today we were going to have one of the strongest and most intense severe weather outbreaks of the year. Everyone from the Storm Prediction Center to Northeast Weather Action predicted this. So why didn't we get severe thunderstorms? Well that is a very good question and has a few general answers. I'm sure people from Southern Pennsylvania to Northern Virginia were woken up by a line of severe thunderstorms this morning. Well that line of severe thunderstorms really robbed the atmosphere of all of the instability and shear that was predicted to be present throughout today. After that line of showers and storms passed through the region, we were socked in by clouds which completely ruined the chances of severe thunderstorm formation for today. So in general, the line this morning acted as a shield and protected the area from severe storms.

          When you look at the radar, you see intense severe thunderstorms in Virginia or off the coast. Well now you might ask, why do they have severe storms and we have nothing? Very good question once again, but yet again has answers. The reason is because those locations didn't see the squall line in which we did. This in which opened the door for severe weather and didn't close the door on instability, which we here in the Northeast, had the door closed on by. Many people are grateful for this occurrence, but for the storm chasers, no no no, not today! As always be sure to stay tuned to Northeast Weather Action for the latest updates, forecasts, and outlooks on all northeast weather action!

Tomorrow 12 AM – Friday 10 AM Final Rainfall Forecast

          Here are the final thoughts on rainfall coming early tomorrow morning through around 10 AM Friday and also the updated rainfall totals forecast from the Weather Prediction Center.

New Rainfall Forecast From Tonight - Friday Afternoon

          Here is the updated rainfall forecast for tonight through Friday Afternoon, stay dry!

New Thoughts On Wednesday Night - Friday Morning Rain Event

          Yesterday parts of the region received moderate rain all day, like in New England. Meanwhile other sections of the region like Northern Maryland, dealt with tornadoes. Today scattered showers and thunderstorms will be throughout the area. Don't forget about last week's rain from what was Tropical Storm Andrea, or the remnants of it. So with all of this rain, can we possibly expect more. After all, cities like New York City are having one of the top 10 wettest June's of all time, and we are only a third of the way into the month.

          This answer to the previous question is yes, do to the active pattern that is constantly tracking storms through the Midwest and Ohio Valley, straight into the Northeast. Now lets get to details on this rainstorm. Showers and thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon across Western PA and New York, as well as Central and Northern Ohio could be severe, with possibly a derecho, which is a long line of severe thunderstorms that cause widespread amounts of damage. This name might seem very familiar to you. It would at around this time last year, two derechos swept through Ohio and from Harrisburg, PA to Richmond, Virginia. These prompted long lasting power outages. Which did not mix the the heat wave we experienced shortly after derechos.

          After Wednesday, a low pressure system will approach the region Thursday Morning, shortly after, still likely during Thursday Morning, the storm system will push into Northern Ohio and into Western PA. Heavy is likely to fall, especially on the northern side of the system, which is being indicated on the new models. This. is causing the forecast to change drastically and could still go either way, and could just be a trend that could change. After the rainfall moves into Western PA and Western New York, it will move into Eastern New York as well as Central and Eastern Pennsylvania by around the early afternoon hours on Thursday. 

          The system is actually looking pretty intense, being forecasted a 997 MB storm in Southeastern PA. When Friday Morning rolls around, the area of low pressure will likely be around Long Island, or just south of it. The rain extent should reach up through Southern New England and into Central New England. Now the southern end of the rain is still more out there, or unknown. On the model I am about to show you, you will see what I am talking about. Here is the new 00z GFS for late Thursday Night, with the low centered in Southeastern PA.

          As you can see, it's clear the majority of the rainfall produced by this storm in on the northern side of the system. This is the variable that still has many possibilities but is now becoming more certain. Many models are now showing this solution, so the forecast has changed greatly and looks to be holding throughout the most recent model forecasts. Keep tuned into Northeast Weather Action for the latest rainfall forecasts on this storm. Also stay here because many more storms are coming our way, take my word when I say that. For now I will leave you with the new rainfall forecast for Wednesday Night through Friday at around of just before noon. Thanks for reading!

Today's Updated Severe T-Storm Threats

          As severe thunderstorms impacted a portion of the region today, more severe weather is expected to be present tomorrow. The severe storms will mainly be east of the Appalachian, with the risk not as high for some heavy thunderstorms in Ohio. The area with the greatest risk of seeing storms is from in and around Hartford, Connecticut through Eastern Pennsylvania and down into Eastern and Central Virginia. Some storms could contain damaging winds and small hail, as well as heavy downpours. Besides severe weather, some scattered showers, certainly not as widespread as yesterday, will be around. But anyways here is the updated forecast for today's severe thunderstorm threats.

Weather Prediction Center's Rainfall Forecasts

Day 1 Rain Forecast:

Day 2 Rain Forecast:

Day 3 Rain Forecast:

Days 1 - 3 Total Rain Forecast

Updated Rainfall Totals Forecast For This Afternoon Through Tuesday Night

          Here is the new rainfall forecast for this afternoon - Tuesday Night. As you can see, the forecast totals are really rising. This is thanks to the precipitation now looking more widespread instead of yesterday when we were thinking thunderstorms and heavy rain only by the coast. Now it looks like the heaviest rain will be from around Springfield, MA through areas in and close to Scranton, PA. But overall areas anywhere from Watertown, New York, to Boston. This will be a significant rainfall for the region so stay tuned to Northeast Weather Action for the latest forecasts and updates on this rainy situation as well as all other northeast weather action. The final rain forecast for this event will be released around the middle part of this afternoon.

Rain Still To Fall From Remnants Of Tropical Storm Andrea

The Rain Is Falling In The Big Apple

6/6/13 Weekly Weather Update

1st Update On T.S. Andrea And It's Affects On The Northeast

BREAKING NEWS : TROPICAL STORM ANDREA HAS FORMED AND WILL GET ADVISORIES WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR

 Return to Atlantic Graphical TWO

1. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS ABLE TO IDENTIFY A
WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION IN THE LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE EAST-
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. BASED ON THIS
FINDING...THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER WILL INITIATE ADVISORIES ON
TROPICAL STORM ANDREA WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
HIGH CHANCE...NEAR 100 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

June 4th Tropical Update : A Storm Could Be Brewing

          As we move into the beginning of hurricane season, we possibly already have something to watch. A tropical wave in the Caribbean that is now Invest 91L, is slowly drifting north-northeast. The probability of development is about 40% at this time, but could increase later today or tomorrow. The area this system is trying to form in is the most normal and favorable region in the Atlantic for this time of year. Despite the unfavorable upper-level conditions, this low still has a chance of forming into a tropical depression or weak tropical storm. We do not expect this low to strengthen much past the weak to possible moderate tropical storm level. This area of low pressure is moving towards the Florida Peninsula.

          Regardless whether or not this storm strengthens into a tropical entity, it will still produce heavy rainfall especially in Florida, but possibly up the east coast. The models as this morning were generally taking the system off the coast in the Carolina's, but some of the more recent models are beginning to shift it closer to the coast. Rainfall amounts in Florida will likely be very substantial and impactful. Another factor going into the rainfall totals here in the northeast is there will be another system, not tropical related at all gliding into western and central PA, as well as western and central New York. But this is likely to occur at the same time as the tropical lows effects on the northeast, and this makes for some possible significant rainfall.

          Like I said, the models are beginning to take this system up the coast and really starting to impact coastal areas with lots of precipitation. But also in addition, western and centrals areas of New York and Pennsylvania will get more rain from another low. It is still possible the tropical system could go off the coast, but the path of that is still to be determined. Now I am going to show you a model that I think is great for showing the amount of precipitation that will fall throughout this system. Here is the newest 12z euro showing precipitation amounts from these two systems combined.

          As you can see, the highest rainfall amounts are in northeast New Jersey, into southeast New York, and into southern New England. After that you notice the area of enhanced precipitation in the eastern Ohio Valley and central New York, which is produced by the second system non-tropical. Overall the timing for this storm will be on Friday afternoon, the tropical low will likely be somewhere in northeast Northeast Carolina or on the southeast Virginia Cape. The system will then glide northeast, and be just west of New York City during early Saturday morning, so the low will be faster moving then normal. The storm will likely be off down east Maine by Saturday afternoon. This system is nothing to really get ready for, but will be noticeably impactful here in the northeast, I will leave you with the overall setup of these two lows and where the heaviest rain could fall.

Potential Severe Thunderstorm Watch To Be Issued

          The Storm Prediction Center is currently monitoring this area and questioning whether or not to issue a Severe Thunderstorm Watch. Storms are currently firing up in this region and could turn severe. Although a Severe Thunderstorm Watch will most likely not be issued, keep a look out for potential severe and strong storms around this region.