Monday, May 27, 2013

New Severe Threats Forecast For Tomorrow And Wednesday

          Now originally, the thinking was that this particular severe weather event that comes tomorrow and Wednesday would not be large at all. But the forecast has really changed, and so have the models, so lets start with tomorrow's severe threat indexes. Tomorrow will feature a widespread severe weather event, not an outbreak, but definitely close to one when it comes in terms of the northeast's standards. There are three possible characteristics that tomorrow could have. The first one and the most likely is that widespread severe thunderstorm will be throughout areas from Cleveland and Columbus, to Harrisburg and Williamsport, Pennsylvania. Severe thunderstorms could contain damaging winds and hail in diameter of quarters, and possibly larger.

          But after all of the severe thunderstorms pass through this region, it's likely that the will all loose their severe characteristics, and then combine into a large area of heavy rain in eastern Pennsylvania, that will move into New Jersey. The second possibility is that the thunderstorms will be widespread through the whole region and not loose intensity when they move into eastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey. The third possible event that could take place, is that everything could just be heavy rain after Pittsburgh, PA. This solution is highly unlikely because of the whole setup for tomorrow. Here is the updated severe weather threats index for tomorrow, followed by a future radar model.

          This is not the end of the severe weather yet, because it looks like there could also be some intense thunderstorms on Wednesday. Although the threat levels are slightly lower, severe thunderstorms are still possible. The area with storms also looks to be a little farther to the north then tomorrows event. Really, on Wednesday thunderstorms will be more scattered, and not as numerous. So here are the severe threats for tomorrow, followed by the threat level definitions used here at Northeast Weather Action. Stay safe and be sure to tune into Northeast Weather Action for the latest updated forecasts and weather outlooks!

P.S. - The stay connected page will switch to severe central starting tomorrow afternoon at about 3:35 PM.

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