Tuesday, June 4, 2013

June 4th Tropical Update : A Storm Could Be Brewing

          As we move into the beginning of hurricane season, we possibly already have something to watch. A tropical wave in the Caribbean that is now Invest 91L, is slowly drifting north-northeast. The probability of development is about 40% at this time, but could increase later today or tomorrow. The area this system is trying to form in is the most normal and favorable region in the Atlantic for this time of year. Despite the unfavorable upper-level conditions, this low still has a chance of forming into a tropical depression or weak tropical storm. We do not expect this low to strengthen much past the weak to possible moderate tropical storm level. This area of low pressure is moving towards the Florida Peninsula.

          Regardless whether or not this storm strengthens into a tropical entity, it will still produce heavy rainfall especially in Florida, but possibly up the east coast. The models as this morning were generally taking the system off the coast in the Carolina's, but some of the more recent models are beginning to shift it closer to the coast. Rainfall amounts in Florida will likely be very substantial and impactful. Another factor going into the rainfall totals here in the northeast is there will be another system, not tropical related at all gliding into western and central PA, as well as western and central New York. But this is likely to occur at the same time as the tropical lows effects on the northeast, and this makes for some possible significant rainfall.

          Like I said, the models are beginning to take this system up the coast and really starting to impact coastal areas with lots of precipitation. But also in addition, western and centrals areas of New York and Pennsylvania will get more rain from another low. It is still possible the tropical system could go off the coast, but the path of that is still to be determined. Now I am going to show you a model that I think is great for showing the amount of precipitation that will fall throughout this system. Here is the newest 12z euro showing precipitation amounts from these two systems combined.

          As you can see, the highest rainfall amounts are in northeast New Jersey, into southeast New York, and into southern New England. After that you notice the area of enhanced precipitation in the eastern Ohio Valley and central New York, which is produced by the second system non-tropical. Overall the timing for this storm will be on Friday afternoon, the tropical low will likely be somewhere in northeast Northeast Carolina or on the southeast Virginia Cape. The system will then glide northeast, and be just west of New York City during early Saturday morning, so the low will be faster moving then normal. The storm will likely be off down east Maine by Saturday afternoon. This system is nothing to really get ready for, but will be noticeably impactful here in the northeast, I will leave you with the overall setup of these two lows and where the heaviest rain could fall.

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