SPC Could Issue Severe Thunderstorm Watch

Mesoscale Discussion 937

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0937 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0218 PM CDT SUN JUN 02 2013 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 021918Z - 022145Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT SUMMARY...ISOLATED/MARGINALLY SEVERE TSTMS IN THE LEE OF THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS MAY DEVELOP EWD TOWARDS THE I-95 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING. DISCUSSION...A FEW TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS FAR NRN VA/ERN WV PANHANDLE...WITH ADDITIONAL AGITATED CU NOTED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY NEWD INTO ERN PA. WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY RUNNING FROM THE LEE OF LK ONTARIO INTO NERN PA...THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE DEGREE OF TSTM COVERAGE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS GIVEN THE DAMPENING/NEWD MOVEMENT OF THE TROUGH AWAY FROM THE REGION. STILL...A MODESTLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH MLCAPE NEAR 1000 J/KG AMIDST PREVALENT MIDDLE 80S SURFACE TEMPERATURES COULD FOSTER FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. WITH THE REGION LYING ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE STRONGER MID-LEVEL SWLYS...A FEW MARGINALLY ORGANIZED TSTMS SHOULD POSE A RISK OF ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ..GRAMS/WEISS.. 06/02/2013 ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...BGM...AKQ...CTP...LWX... LAT...LON 41387505 41067436 40627442 39257542 38187672 38107744 38357840 38757855 39447782 40777644 41287583 41387505