Friday, June 21, 2013

Long Range Lookout: What Will The Weather Be Like After The Heat Wave? Find Out!

          I'm sure by now you must of heard about the upcoming heat wave that will be sitting on the northeast. After that, little to no precipitation is expected to fall during this period, which could force you to use those sprinklers. But after the heat wave, what comes next? Well there are various answers to that question and so lets get started. The start of the long range lookout obviously starts after the heat wave passes on by. So lets use the golden tool to get the answer to that question, weather models. Lets start with the ecmwf model, or what we like to call the euro model. The euro model indicates a wetter and more active pattern along with below normal temperatures for this time of year starting the later part of next week. It shows storms one after another impacting nearly the same areas with rainstorms and overall has the whole region is below average in terms of temperatures.

          I would think you might want to figure out that area that could possibly receive significant amounts of rain. Well this region sits anywhere from Northern Ohio, through Western New York, and almost all of the state of Pennsylvania. Keep in mind, this area could easily be bumped around and that nothing is nailed in stone, or guaranteed yet. This like I said would be late next week, but the below normal temperatures wouldn't set in until about the weekend before the 4th of July. But lets get back to the precipitation part of this event and then later I will go more into detail about the upcoming temperatures. So going back to the models and how they continue to like a certain region to get the most rainfall. Here is the second rainstorm out of the two on the euro model.

          You can really see both storms pretty good in this model. First you see the exiting storm off of the Southern New England - Long Island Coastline. After that the second storm is mainly in Pennsylvania and about to enter New Jersey. Next you also notice Western New York receiving rain. Generally a good 1 to 2 inches of rain are possible from both storms combined anywhere from Central and Southern New Jersey, into all of Pennsylvania, as well as Northern Ohio and Western New York. And then around a half an inch to and inch of rain is looking likely from Northern New Jersey, down onto the Del-Mar-Va and into Maryland, through West Virginia. So that is the story for the precipitation side of things, now lets get to the temperatures that are looking likely after this heat wave.

          By two weekends from now, cooler temperatures, mainly in the 60's and 70's will set in across the northeast. What is looking like to play it is a trough from Ontario up in Canada will likely dive south into the Great Lakes and northeast, reducing the temperatures significantly. In a way just kicking the heat out the door, or shoving back into the southeast US. Temperatures will likely range from the mid to upper 60's in Northern New England and Northern New York, and then lower 70's across Central and Southern New England, as well as Central and Southern, as well as Western New York. After that lower to mid 70's are expected to occur from the Appalachian Mountains in Western and Central Pennsylvania, to the Poconos. Lastly the mid to upper 70's are looking most likely in all of New Jersey, and on into Eastern PA and the Del-Mar-Va. Here is what I am describing in a map form, from the euro model.

          Now this map could be under-doing the temperatures just a little, as the euro usually does. But I think overall you can kind of get the sense that cooler temperatures are on the way, but first we have to get through the heat wave. Now I keep on saying adjectives like cooler, and below normal. I really want to make you second guess those words because I said this a few weeks ago and to me, it almost sounds like I am saying it's going to be so cold you are going to need jackets. No, what I am trying to say is cooler than average temperatures are coming, out normals this time of year range from the mid 80's to the low 70's, of course depending on where you are located. After that, we have no good idea on how long these below normal temperatures are going to last, so don't get out of that summer mood! Thank you for reading and be sure to stay tuned to Northeast Weather Action for the latest weather forecasts and updates! Have a great weekend and enjoy that pool next week! 

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