Sunday, February 24, 2013

Tuesday - Wednesday Winter Storm

          Yet another winter storm will impact the northeast midweek. The storm will come over from the Midwest after it nails the central plains with historic snowfall and likely a blizzard in Kansas. When the event gets into our neck of the woods, it will bring significant snowfall accumulation to some area's. The storm will be made up of two different pieces. One piece will fly north of our area into Canada with some effects to us and the other piece of energy will come from a secondary low pressure system that will track through DC, Baltimore, Philadelphia, and New York. So if you live in or between those area's, you can't expect to see much snow because your area will be too warm in part because of the track of this low and also because the Atlantic warm air will invade these places and ruin their snow chances for this event. But in places like State College, Pennsylvania and Syracuse, New York, you will get snow, and yes, I will have to say it again, southern and central New England is likely to receive yet another significant dose of heavy snow midweek. The precipitation could start as rain in places such as Pittsburgh and area's below 1000 feet in elevation across the West Virginia, Pennsylvania, and New York mountains.

          The precipitation should arrive as plain old rain in the I - 95 corridor middle - late day Tuesday. The moisture should arrive in eastern New York, eastern Pennsylvania, and New Jersey late Tuesday afternoon as well. Once again places below 1000 feet will most likely have rain except in locations north of Albany, where the precipitation type should be all snow. In interior New England, the moisture should arrive on Tuesday evening, as coastal area's of New England will see the moisture later in the evening or around Midnight on Wednesday. The precipitation will continue through the overnight hours and into Wednesday before ending midday Wednesday or Wednesday evening from southwest to northeast. The only time period of the storm that area's above 1000 feet will have to worry about precipitation type is the midday hours on Wednesday, as a mix could overspread the lower mountains of Pennsylvania and New York. Overall the event will be disruptive as significant snowfall amounts are possible and looking likely.

          It is even possible some ice could occur in southern Pennsylvania, but this is looking unlikely. Plan for travel delays and / or school delays or closings across the impacted area's in our region of the US. So if you are wonder about total snow accumulations for this specific storm, here is a preliminary map of my predicted snowfall amounts in the Northeast United States region.

          Once again there is still some uncertainty with the exact track of this system, which would really impact the possible snowfall totals in places like south central Pennsylvania, where at this point not much snowfall accumulation is looking possible due to the track and like I said the warm air that will bring up the temperatures across southern Pennsylvania and New Jersey, as will as the south coast of New England and the New York City area. But for this event across Pennsylvania and the southern tier of upstate New York, your elevation will likely make a large implication on how high (or low) your snowfall accumulation will likely turn out to be.

          After this event it looks to get slightly warmer for Thursday, but then a large area of cold air will approach and come into our region bringing the temperatures below average to start off March, and though likely the entire part of early March, so I wouldn't give up just yet if I lived from DC to New York, as some storms look possible during this time period with cold air. I will have more in that in another update coming soon, or go to the 8 - 14 day outlook tab, which is where I posted an article on the cold air to start off March for all of the northeast, but for now, I would focus your attention on this event, especially if you are traveling in some way in the likely high impacted area's from this storm. I will have more updates in this winter storm leading up to it, but for now stay safe and check back to Northeast Weather Action or more updates in this event and many other events.

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