Thursday, February 28, 2013

What Is Coming, Warm Up or Cool Down + Whats Up With The Models?

          As I talked about a few days ago, it looked like we were going into a strong trough and almost all of the models indicated a freezing start to March, and possibly further into March. Well now, it looks like we could and most likely will have a warm up coming for us starting around the middle of next week. To summarize the model situation, the models a few days ago were showing a cool start and possibly middle March. Well now the models have almost completely thrown the idea of a cool down right out the door. Now some models show a warm start to March and a cool middle part. Well to me this is just the same old thing, the models will say something and then flip their whole idea. For instance and like I said, just as little as a few days ago the models were saying a major cool down for the beginning and middle of March. Well now that we are closer to the possible event that was originally indicated, the opposite is likely to occur.

          But at this point, I'm not even sure I can even trust the models even from this close. They just flip - flop the whole way to an "event" being shown by the models. But at this point I like the idea of a warm March, besides the first 4 or 5 days, where temperatures should be around average, but after that, here comes Spring for many area's across the region. Next to go back on the whole weather models thing, I might be the first person to say this but it seems like they are getting worse and worse with handling long range, and even short range weather, AKA, the RAP. The RAP has been getting more off and off as the winter season went on. So to me I think we should start to get off the whole weather models thing because it just seems like whatever the models show from even close range, the opposite happens, especially with temperatures and sometimes even precipitation.

          So I don't know what really to say about them,  but now lets get into whats coming, using shall I say, the models, and my opinion to guide them. I think we will see like I said average temperatures up to about March 5th or 6th, and then warmer air. Now here are some models, I am not trying to use them to say, "Look what the models are saying at this point in time", but these models I want to use more to support my overall idea of warmer air coming.

          Here are two models that show my idea's of what will occur after the 5th. Warmer air from a ridge will build into the area and provide above normal temperatures and with the new pattern setting up, below normal precipitation, not really caused by the ridge, but in general. So in the two models shown above, what you see are temperatures around 10 degrees above normal widespread, and you don't really see any trough coming either. Some models indicate a colder middle half of March, but I kind of disagree with that idea, and also that's just too far out.

          But to summarize everything up I think the models these days are handling situations long and short range worse and worse and I see an average start in temperatures up until around March 5th, but then after that here comes an early Spring with for once, not much precipitation so you could a actually enjoy being outside in that warm air. I will update you on any changes in this idea of mine and keep it here, Northeast Weather Action, for all weather updates and weather news. See you in the next update which should be on the way in the next day or two!

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