Tuesday, May 14, 2013

Significant Rainstorm Possible For Next Week

          In some places in the northeast, a lack of rain is occurring, but could this come to an end? The answer to this question is most likely yes, because as we look to the future, many models show a significant rainstorm on the way. As you may have seen my post about the weekend severe weather threat that moves into the region by early to the middle part of next week, well many models are now indicating a low raps it's self up and slams the middle Atlantic and northeast with in some cases 6 + inches of rain. Now this is still far out, but just the amount of models jumping on this event is almost 100 %. Now the amounts of rain vary, but this storm is looking very possible, if not likely. For the time frame of this possible storm, it looks like it would  impact Ohio and Kentucky on Monday night into Tuesday of next week. After that, this storm looks like it could virtually sit on areas from southern New York to central Virginia for 2 to 3 days. Models show the storm without movement from Wednesday through Saturday. In general, the spin this storm will most likely have would be just slow moving from central Virginia, through central Pennsylvania, and possibly into south central New York. Here are two models that show moisture movement six hours apart. Now the map on the top is the first six hours and the bottom model map is the next six hours.

          Now as you can see, the movement of precipitation is barely anything. After that, you can see the low pressure center just spinning around in the Ohio Valley, and also the moisture intensity is very significant. Now keep in mind, these are only 12 hour rain totals and they range from 1 and a half to three inches of rain in south central New York, central Pennsylvania, central Maryland, and central Virginia. But like I said earlier, this is still very far out and this could still change because after all, this possible event is still a week away from happening. But my confidence is very high on this event already. Now going with my most recent post about the severe weather outbreak for the central and eastern US, you may be wondering if any severe weather could happen in our region. It looks like this is somewhat possible, because the temperatures look to be 5 - 10 degrees above normal during the event time period, and the instability looks to be there a little, but the volume of rain just could make this a plain heavy rain event with possibly some embedded strong / severe thunderstorms.

          Going on, the totals on this rain event is probably the most uncertain factor in this storm. The models are very much in agreement that this event will happen, but the things they are not so sure about is how much rain and where could the rain fall? Well for the area that could receive the most rain, is pretty much where you see the blues on that model above. This area could move locations, but at this point, it looks like that would be the region to receive the most rainfall. Next, with some models, the stripe of heavy rain is more to the south, but with a few models, it's to the north. In my opinion, if I had to do a long range forecast on where the most precipitation could fall, I would say places from central Pennsylvania, like around Williamsport, to around the city of Richmond, Virginia. Now I will show you some model information around how much rain and where it could be. Lets start with the newest euro (ECMWF), now as you easily notice, this particular model is painting a good 5 inches of rain in areas and the models shows the storm still going on at the last available hour, hour 240, which is two Fridays from now at 8 in the morning.

          To start, let me just say this model is on the higher side for how much rainfall out of the excising models. But putting that thought to the side, if this situation were to play out, wow! That would be a lot of rain, and possibly even too much to handle. Now a pretty persistent rain band would have to setup, but that is nearly impossible to forecast from this far. Now I am going to show you a different model that has a little bit of a different scenario. Here is the 00z euro, this is the morning run of the euro and it shows much less rainfall and there is not a specific area with the most heavy rain as you can see below. This could be slightly more realistic, but I actually don't see this playing out. It definitely looks like the low will swirl right into the northeast, but in my opinion it will be smaller and more effective to one specific area like what you see on the model above. But my ideas and the forecast could change completely for where the most rain falls, but maybe not. So keep track of this possible significant rainstorm and also keep up to date on the latest weather forecasts, outlooks, and a lot more weather information here at Northeast Weather Action.

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