Sunday, January 27, 2013

Update on Tomorrows Storm

     As you may already know, the pattern is starting to get active, we just had a small storm that effected the lower area's of the northeast on Friday. We are expecting a bigger and more impactful storm for tomorrow. It will contain a big wintry mix of precipitation across all area's of the northeast. This could result in very terrible travel conditions depending on where you are located. Read more to find all of the details about this dangerous storm that has already warranted many winter advisories, watches and warnings across the area.

          This storm will be pretty strong and should impact central and eastern Pennsylvania as well as the eastern parts of western New York with a possible significant ice event. The reason I'm not saying western Pennsylvania is because area's in the Appalachian mountains and over to Pittsburgh and Erie should get into the warmer first that is produced by the approaching ridge that is coming from the southwest. So in result the temperatures should rise and make this precipitation type be mainly rain for the entire storm with possibly a little ice to start in western Pennsylvania. So western Pennsylvania will not be effected significantly by this storm.

          Now this storm will move into central and eastern Pennsylvania as well as central New York, especially Watertown south. This storm could produce either some snow or freezing rain. This is likely to be a major hazard from about State College, Pennsylvania, east. The ice accumulations as a preliminary forecast should be about .15 - .20 of an inch of ice in cities like Syracuse, Williamsport, State College, Allentown, Scranton, Philadelphia, Harrisburg, and possibly Baltimore, how ever it could be slightly to warm in Baltimore to support freezing rain or snow.

          This storm will then move ENE into southern New England and hit with most likely snow first for Monday afternoon and early Monday night. After that this storm will then move farther into Southern New England. The precipitation type will likely switch over to freezing rain for Monday night in cities like Hartford,    Providence, Worcester, and Boston. When it comes in terms of New York City, they will likely have a short period of snow Monday afternoon and then switch over to freezing rain. To end the wintry precipitation it will likely be freezing rain until early Tuesday night. At this point everybody should have switched over to plain rain in New England, except central and northern Maine, where this storm should be all snow in these area's.

          So the area's that will be significantly effected by this storm like I said earlier but in addition, possibly extreme northeastern Ohio and northwestern Pennsylvania. Then when you move east once you get to State College, all places  to the east of there should be pounded with a big wintry mix from Chambersburg, Pennsylvania and State College, Pennsylvania, to the east. Now when you head into New Jersey, area's Trenton and north should have a pretty big ice event. Now when you head into northern New Jersey, you will see bout the same story as south central Pennsylvania and most of eastern Pennsylvania. That meaning a very big ice storm with a little snow to start.

          Now when you go into southern New England, it will be mainly snow to through interior southern New England until the later parts of Monday afternoon. On Monday night, the precipitation type in interior southern New England as well as central New England should be freezing rain or sleet but the coastal area's should be on the border of  freezing rain or just plain rain. Overall the area's with a big ice storm possible are from Chambersburg, Pennsylvania, to Manchester, New Hampshire. Area's in northern New England and extreme northern New York should stay all snow. Keep tabs on this storm because it will be very significant.
I will have rapid updates about this storm and other weather events. Below is an updated forecast map for this storm.

       Here is the 12z ECMWF model for snowfall accumulation for this storm to leave you.

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