Saturday, January 26, 2013

Preliminary Thoughts On Monday Storm

 Has it been a long time sense we have had a significant ice storm throughout the northeastern Untied States, find out if one is on the way soon or not. You might know already if you look down at this map, please read the article below the map to learn more about this possible serious ice storm threatening the northeast.


          Here is my forecast map for the late Sunday - Monday event. This storm will move in from the north central plains and midwest early Monday morning spreading precipitation into Ohio, Pennsylvania, and upstate New York to start. The storm should be pretty widespread and have an average amount of precipitation around .25 inches of qpf. The temperatures should be widespread middle 30's in Ohio with middle to upper 20's throughout the majority of the state of Pennsylvania. So at this point there will most likely be snow or freezing rain. I say freezing rain possibly because the temperatures upstairs in the upper levels of the atmosphere will be warmer then the temperatures at the surface, likely creating freezing rain. Below are two maps, the first one is the precipitation and then second one is temperatures at the surface.

          As you can see the ridge and trough are clearly showed. You have temperatures in the middle 30's in Ohio and middle - upper 20's in most of Pennsylvania, except the extreme western parts. Also you see temperatures in New England are quite cold because those area's are the farthest away from the approaching ridge coming from the southwest. Now below are another two maps at 66 hours still with the NAM.

          So now, as this model clearly indicates, the warm air is coming but the cold air is hanging on in New England and eastern New York. This point is now really when the storm is at it's highest point on the scale. You have pretty good precipitation in upstate New York moving into New England. I think southern New England and especially interior southern New England will have to deal with cold air damming. This could lead to mostly if not all snow in interior southern New England but I still see more ice then snow there. But at this point you will likely have wet snow or freezing rain falling in western New York as well as northern and eastern Pennsylvania. The only reason I don't say rain when the temperatures will probably be in the lower to middle 30's is I think the lower levels of the atmosphere will also have some cold air damming in these area's, but not as much as in eastern New York and central as well as southern New England. Like I said, especially interior parts of central and southern New England. By the the only reason I'm not mentioning northern New England is because hose area's should be all snow. The only area I'm not so confident as much about is western New York, western Pennsylvania, and all of Ohio, in these places I am not as confident about my prediction as I am in New England because these area's could have little or no cold air damming and warmer temperatures, so it all depends on temperatures. Also to mention New Jersey, central and southern New Jersey should be mainly rain with possibly some ice or freezing rain to start off, but northern New Jersey should be on the look out for a possible ice storm. Below are two maps at 72 hours on the NAM, one of temperates and one of precipitation.

          So know you might be thinking in your head that it would most likely be snowing in New England, right? Actually, if you look closely at the model this is a surface temperature forecast representation. Once again there will most likely be warm upstairs and cold air at the surface resulting in freezing rain likely in interior New England, and possibly coastal. By the way this is on Monday night at 7:00. This looks to be the most intense part of the storm for New England. Now keep in the back of your mind also all of this in New England could be snow, where I am saying freezing rain, but for now I am going with freezing rains for about 60% of the storm in interior southern New England, along with about as a preliminary forecast around 2 - 6 inches of snow possible in interior southern New England. Also possibly 1 - 3 inches in eastern and northern Pennsylvania, as well as eastern New York and possibly central and western New York.In terms of ice and freezing rain accumulations, those are still unknown because the possibilities of this storm. It really all depends on what event arrives first, the ridge or the storm. I think storm. After this storm there will likely be a two day warm up but then getting very cold again by late next week. There is still some uncertainty associated with this storm event for early Monday morning - late Monday night. This event is painted out yet and I will continue to bring you the latest weather updates and developments for this storm and other events.
Be sure to check back here later today for another update on this possible major ice storm to hit the northeast and midwest. As you read, I mainly focus on the northeast but anybody from the midwest, be sure to keep up ti date on this event. See you guys later in the next update!
                                                                             
                                                                                                              - Student Forecaster Josh Adams

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