Monday, March 11, 2013

A Current Warmup To Turn Into A cold Stormy Pattern? Find Out!

          As we enter a calmer then normal time in weather for the region, the cold air also will not be set free. The warm, more spring like air will be with us until Wednesday when the cold air starts to flow in from the west. As far as how warm it will be, the highs will be around 10 degrees above average, but like I said, not for long. But, when I say calm, that's talking about wintry weather, a rainstorm storm will come into are region as a low glides to the northwest of the region and puts us in the rainy side of things. As far as precipitation amounts, the should be around an inch widespread. After this event the cold air will invade the region, but this cold will not be terrible. Sense as you know you just turned your clocks forward, we are inching closer and closer to spring. So for this cold snap, temperatures should be around 10 degrees below average.

          Now that the models agree on, what happens during and possibly after the cold, well there is a lot of disagreement with how that plays out. So around next Tuesday or Wednesday the models show some kind of activity rolling through the northeast. So the best model and the most consistent model, the model that has called the past 4 storms from long range and short range, the ECMWF, or euro. The euro shows a storm coming into the region at about 186 or 192 hours, giving up or forward a few hours. The euro shows the storm being very intense and really strengthening around the DEL - MAR - VA. It shows cold temperatures, or the 32 degree line around or just south of DC, now it would likely to be colder because of all the dynamic cooling that would be occurring from this possible monster storm.

          The euro shows significant and major snowfall amounts all over the northeast corridor from DC to Bangor. Now that's the best model, the euro, here's a summary of the GFS. The GFS is just starting to show a large storm, but taking a track slightly more north, giving only area's north of the Mason - Dixon line a moderate to heavy snowfall. Like I said this is just starting to be shown on the newest runs of the GFS, but the models, at least the two best for long range, have mostly come into agreement of a large northeast snowstorm invading the region around early to middle next week. Here are the exact models and I will elaborate more on each model you see.

THE ECMWF MODEL Precipitation Model:

          So here is the euro precipitation model during the time of the storm, as you can see it shows pretty heavy QPF amounts, and this is just the 00z euro, the 12z euro shows an unbelievable amount of QPF, which is the amount of precipitation. Now you look at this model and you may think this is the precipitation for the entire storm, no this is only the amount of precipitation in 8 hours, the total amount of QPF the model shows for the whole storm is a widespread 1 - 2 inches, which is pretty substantial. So at this point the storm is gliding northeast and producing heavy snow all over the northeast, which is possible, but it's still far out, but like I said the ECMWF model has been nailing these long range events one after another and what you see is exactly what the euro shows.

THE ECMWF MODEL temperature's:

          Now here are the temperatures during the height of the storm that the euro spit out. As you can see it shows the whole region being either at or below the freezing point. This is possible but sense the time of year and the conditions, it could be as much as 5 degrees warmer then the model shows, but here are a couple reasons why the temperatures could be this cold. First sense the possible storm could be very intense, dynamic cooling could occur. Also keep in mind this model shows the maximum temperature's, so they could be even colder then this, and this model doesn't even take dynamic cooling into matter when producing it's solutions.

THE ECMWF total snowfall accumulation:

          So here is the euro snowfall for this event, and like I said, a very heavy accumulation especially for area's more inland, like take a city like Philly for an example. On this model it shows center - city Philadelphia receiving around 6 inches, when about 30 miles north and west, or more inland, they get more then 20 inches of snow, which is a large difference. Also you see DC getting nearly nothing, when just north in York, Pennsylvania gets a foot and a half of snow. So this is the euro model, here's the newest 12z GFS

THE GFS precipitation:

          So here is the newest best model of the GFS, the 12z GFS. As you can see the storm is a lot more south and the storm doesn't go that far north. But like earlier this is only a few hours of the storm, for the whole storm the new GFS shows a widespread inch to inch and a half of precipitation throughout Pennsylvania and New Jersey. But the GFS is just starting to show this event, and it is still far out so anything could change.

THE GFS snowfall totals:

          Now here is the GFS total snowfall for this storm. As you note Pennsylvania and central, as well as northern New Jersey do alright too. The model shows the highest snowfall right around State College, Pennsylvania with around a foot of snow with widespread 6 - 12 inch amounts around it. The snow that you see up in New England is from a different storm that is likely not to occur, so that snow will likely not be there.

          This is all I wanted to say about this possible snowfall event, but still keep in mind this is long range, and anything could happen. But next keep as a factor the euro has nailed the last few major northeast snowstorms from long range and short range, and now that the GFS is catching on with this possible event, it could be mentioned as a scattered thought anywhere around. And at this point I rally wouldn't look too AccuWeather or The Weather Channel because they are going to play this event for now, and like every event from this far out, very conservative. But overall I will continue to keep you up to speed on all Northeast Weather Action and inform you on any changes on this possible event, or any weather event across the northeast region.

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