The past several days have been filled with threats for strong to severe thunderstorms. So will tomorrow be the same kind of thing? Well it really depends on where you exactly live. If you are in Ohio or New York, you don't need to be concerned, but if you are located in Eastern PA, most of New Jersey and on the central and western part of the Del-Mar-Va, you run into some small problems. This area is where some storms could turn on the strong side, so just keep an eye on the radar tomorrow! Also keep in mind of the flash flood threat because we have has lots of rain and a little to much in some places. Here is tomorrows severe thunderstorm forecast. Be sure to stay tuned in to Northeast Weather Action for the latest weather forecasts and updates, have a great Friday night!
Showing posts with label Rainy Weather. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Rainy Weather. Show all posts
Friday, June 28, 2013
Today's Severe Thunderstorms Threats - Nothing Like Yesterday
Today there will be some isolated strong thunderstorms, but mainly more shower activity and a few embedded storms. Yesterday we had many flash flood warnings and several severe thunderstorm warnings, as well as even a few tornadoes in Pennsylvania. But that was yesterday, today is not expected to be anything close to that magnitude.
Overall there is a low threat of strong to severe storms across the region with a moderate threat which is still not noticeable, in New Jersey and on the Del-Mar-Va. This is the area where some wind damage in storms are possible. So you don't have much to worry about when going to outdoor activities. Here is today's severe thunderstorm threats forecast, have a great day and stay tuned to Northeast Weather Action for the latest forecasts and updates on all northeast weather action!
Overall there is a low threat of strong to severe storms across the region with a moderate threat which is still not noticeable, in New Jersey and on the Del-Mar-Va. This is the area where some wind damage in storms are possible. So you don't have much to worry about when going to outdoor activities. Here is today's severe thunderstorm threats forecast, have a great day and stay tuned to Northeast Weather Action for the latest forecasts and updates on all northeast weather action!
Thursday, June 27, 2013
Full Weekend Weather Forecast
As far as weather conditions go, isolated thunderstorms with some rain showers in Northern Maine. Temperatures should be in the 70's and 80's widespread throughout the region.
Updated 7 Day Rainfall Forecast
Overall significant rain is still expected to fall everywhere in the region. Here is the updated 7 day rainfall forecast.
Now Through Late Next Week's Rainfall Forecast : To Be Wet
In the past few weeks, we have not had much rain across the region. In the next 7 days, several storms will give every area in the region a high chance of seeing a significant amount of rain. It's looking like the most rain will fall in Eastern Pennsylvania and Eastern New York, where around 4 - 5 total inches of rain is expected to fall in the next 7 days. In the next week, just about every other day an individual storm will arrive in the region just to soak areas that have all ready had a shower. So just how much rain are we in the northeast as a whole expecting, well here is the forecast for the next 7 day's rainfall all in one combined forecast.
Today's New Severe Thunderstorm Threats Forecast
Today will likely be the worst day of the week when it comes in terms of strong to severe thunderstorms. There will likely be widespread thunderstorms especially in New York and Pennsylvania. The storms could pack damaging winds and very heavy downpours. Here is the updated forecast for the t-storm threats index.
Wednesday, June 26, 2013
Wednesday's Updated Severe Thunerstorm Index
The threat today will be the smallest of the week overall. Isolated strong storms could be upon some areas but no real widespread severe t-storm threat is expected. But stay right here to Northeast Weather Action because it is looking like tomorrow and Friday could hold significant threats for severe thunderstorms! Here is today's updated severe thunderstorm index.
Weekly Weather Update: Rainy Weather Is Down The Pipeline! See When and How Much!
I take you through a few models to express the significant amounts of rain on the way for the northeast. We also take a quick look at the temperatures and overall the next 10 days in weather. Don't forget to like Northeast Weather Action on facebook!
Tuesday, June 25, 2013
TWO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH BOXES ISSUED
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Today's Updated Severe Thunerstorm Threats Index
Today is going to have the same general threats as yesterday, but possibly an elevated threat level in some areas. Thunderstorms today are looking to be just as widespread as yesterday packing the threats of damaging winds, small hail, and cloud to ground lightning. The chance of tornadoes today is very low. The rest of the week could hold even higher probabilities for strong to severe thunderstorms so make sure you stay right here at Northeast Weather Action for the latest forecasts and updates, as there will be many. Here is today's updated severe thunderstorms threats index. Stay safe and have a great rest of your Tuesday!
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Could Be Issued
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Monday, June 24, 2013
Tomorrow's Beach Forecasts
Tuesday should be a pretty nice day for our regions beaches. Overall mostly sunny skies will be the ruler with some very isolated thunderstorms, that if happen will not ruin your beach day! Have a great Tuesday and stay right here for the latest severe thunderstorm updates, here are the forecasts!
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Area Reduced
Not current radar, graphic only provided to express reduction of the severe thunderstorm watch box coverage.
Sunday, June 23, 2013
Monday - Wednesday Severe Thunderstorm Threats Forecast
The chance is there for strong to severe thunderstorms because of the hot and humid air. These factors will provide instability in the atmosphere and flare up thunderstorms. The threat is not all that big and the thunderstorms will not be that widespread. Here is the forecast for tomorrow through Wednesday.
July 2013 Weather Forecasts Are Here!
Overall from the indications of the models and patterns, we here in the northeast will see above average precipitation and above average temperatures in the northern part of our area. Here are the outlooks for July of 2013, I hope you like them!
Possible Severe Thunderstorm Watch To Be Issued
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1186
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1201 PM CDT SUN JUN 23 2013
AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN THROUGH NERN NY...CNTRL VT AND NH
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 231701Z - 231900Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON FROM SWRN THROUGH ECNTRL/NERN NY INTO CNTRL VT AND NH.
THIS ACTIVITY MAY POSE A MODEST RISK FOR MAINLY LOCALLY STRONG WIND
GUSTS. SOME SMALL HAIL MIGHT ALSO OCCUR. OVERALL SEVERE RISK DOES
NOT APPEAR PARTICULARLY ROBUST...SO ANY WW ISSUANCE WILL ULTIMATELY
DEPEND ON CONVECTIVE TRENDS.
DISCUSSION...EARLY THIS AFTERNOON STRONG DIABATIC WARMING OF THE
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IS OCCURRING OVER MUCH OF NY AND SRN NEW
ENGLAND WITH MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS AND TEMPERATURES RISING
THROUGH THE 80S. THE LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS MLCAPE FROM 1500-2000
J/KG...AND CUMULUS CONGESTUS IS EVIDENT ALONG SW-NE ORIENTED CLOUD
STREETS FROM SWRN THROUGH NCNTRL NY. CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IS
SUFFICIENTLY WEAK AS TEMPERATURES WARM TO UPPER 80S FOR THUNDERSTORM
INITIATION ALONG LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATIONS. THIS REGION RESIDES
WITHIN A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE WITH WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR AND
MODEST DEEP LAYER WINDS SUPPORTIVE OF MULTICELLS. THE WEAK SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT AND WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY ULTIMATELY SERVE AS A
LIMITING FACTOR FOR A MORE ROBUST SEVERE THREAT. HOWEVER...THE
DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER WITH STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST A MODEST THREAT FOR STRONG WIND
GUSTS...ESPECIALLY IF STORMS CAN GROW UPSCALE INTO SMALL CLUSTERS OR
LINE SEGMENTS.
..DIAL/KERR.. 06/23/2013
ATTN...WFO...GYX...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...
LAT...LON 42637765 43127655 43637533 44247309 44017174 43387175
42537568 42327737 42637765
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Saturday, June 22, 2013
All Around Weather Analysis - June 22, 2013
Severe T-Storm Index:
Low Activity
A slight risk for strong to severe thunderstorms runs from Sunday through Wednesday. Minimal activity is expected and chance of impact on your area is low. From Thursday through next weekend, a slight - moderate risk exists for Pennsylvania. New Jersey, New York, as well as all of Southern New England. Isolated activity is possible with risk of impact low to moderate. Main threats: damaging winds in excess of 60 mph and small hail. Probability of a tornado: nearly 0%. Preparation activity needed is nearly nothing, normal thunderstorms could occur in this time period.
Heat Index:
Significant Activity
Slightly above average temperatures are expected throughout the course of the weekend with highs topping out from the 70's to the 80's region wide. A medium duration heat wave is anticipated starting Monday of next weekend, and stretching through midweek, ending Wednesday or Thursday, depending on location. Temperatures will range from 80's in the north to 90's in the south. Thursday - Saturday is expected to have dropping temperatures, about 2 degrees per day. Be sure to drink lots of water and remain hydrated when being exposed to high heat.
Precipitation Index:
Low - Medium Activity
Little to no precipitation is expected from today - Sunday. an increased probability of precipitation will occur Monday and last into the mid to late week as instability is widespread through atmosphere. Maximum chance of precipitation in region: 30%. From Thursday - Saturday, a low pressure system will enter the Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Western New York area. Expected precipitation amounts range from a half an inch in the Northeastern tier on Pennsylvania to near an inch in Northwestern Pennsylvania. Maximum probability of rainfall at current point: 50%.
Drought Index:
Low Activity
An abnormally dry time period with the lack of precipitation could lead to a lack of plant growth. No drought conditions are expected at this time in any part of the region. A relief is likely to come later next week. Area most at risk of below normal precipitation is in the lakes region on Central New York. Any change in forecast has a minimum chance of occurrence.
Tropical Index:
Medium Activity
No tropical activity is expected to to the unfavorable upper and mid level wind conditions at this point, causing increased levels of shear across common tropical development region. Long range index includes an increased possibility for tropical development in the Caribbean. Probability of tropical entity forming in next 10 - 15 days remains around moderate. Keep informed on all development by keeping track of all National Hurricane Center updates and forecasts.
Low Activity
A slight risk for strong to severe thunderstorms runs from Sunday through Wednesday. Minimal activity is expected and chance of impact on your area is low. From Thursday through next weekend, a slight - moderate risk exists for Pennsylvania. New Jersey, New York, as well as all of Southern New England. Isolated activity is possible with risk of impact low to moderate. Main threats: damaging winds in excess of 60 mph and small hail. Probability of a tornado: nearly 0%. Preparation activity needed is nearly nothing, normal thunderstorms could occur in this time period.
Heat Index:
Significant Activity
Slightly above average temperatures are expected throughout the course of the weekend with highs topping out from the 70's to the 80's region wide. A medium duration heat wave is anticipated starting Monday of next weekend, and stretching through midweek, ending Wednesday or Thursday, depending on location. Temperatures will range from 80's in the north to 90's in the south. Thursday - Saturday is expected to have dropping temperatures, about 2 degrees per day. Be sure to drink lots of water and remain hydrated when being exposed to high heat.
Precipitation Index:
Low - Medium Activity
Little to no precipitation is expected from today - Sunday. an increased probability of precipitation will occur Monday and last into the mid to late week as instability is widespread through atmosphere. Maximum chance of precipitation in region: 30%. From Thursday - Saturday, a low pressure system will enter the Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Western New York area. Expected precipitation amounts range from a half an inch in the Northeastern tier on Pennsylvania to near an inch in Northwestern Pennsylvania. Maximum probability of rainfall at current point: 50%.
Drought Index:
Low Activity
An abnormally dry time period with the lack of precipitation could lead to a lack of plant growth. No drought conditions are expected at this time in any part of the region. A relief is likely to come later next week. Area most at risk of below normal precipitation is in the lakes region on Central New York. Any change in forecast has a minimum chance of occurrence.
Tropical Index:
Medium Activity
No tropical activity is expected to to the unfavorable upper and mid level wind conditions at this point, causing increased levels of shear across common tropical development region. Long range index includes an increased possibility for tropical development in the Caribbean. Probability of tropical entity forming in next 10 - 15 days remains around moderate. Keep informed on all development by keeping track of all National Hurricane Center updates and forecasts.
Friday, June 21, 2013
Long Range Lookout: What Will The Weather Be Like After The Heat Wave? Find Out!
I'm sure by now you must of heard about the upcoming heat wave that will be sitting on the northeast. After that, little to no precipitation is expected to fall during this period, which could force you to use those sprinklers. But after the heat wave, what comes next? Well there are various answers to that question and so lets get started. The start of the long range lookout obviously starts after the heat wave passes on by. So lets use the golden tool to get the answer to that question, weather models. Lets start with the ecmwf model, or what we like to call the euro model. The euro model indicates a wetter and more active pattern along with below normal temperatures for this time of year starting the later part of next week. It shows storms one after another impacting nearly the same areas with rainstorms and overall has the whole region is below average in terms of temperatures.
I would think you might want to figure out that area that could possibly receive significant amounts of rain. Well this region sits anywhere from Northern Ohio, through Western New York, and almost all of the state of Pennsylvania. Keep in mind, this area could easily be bumped around and that nothing is nailed in stone, or guaranteed yet. This like I said would be late next week, but the below normal temperatures wouldn't set in until about the weekend before the 4th of July. But lets get back to the precipitation part of this event and then later I will go more into detail about the upcoming temperatures. So going back to the models and how they continue to like a certain region to get the most rainfall. Here is the second rainstorm out of the two on the euro model.
You can really see both storms pretty good in this model. First you see the exiting storm off of the Southern New England - Long Island Coastline. After that the second storm is mainly in Pennsylvania and about to enter New Jersey. Next you also notice Western New York receiving rain. Generally a good 1 to 2 inches of rain are possible from both storms combined anywhere from Central and Southern New Jersey, into all of Pennsylvania, as well as Northern Ohio and Western New York. And then around a half an inch to and inch of rain is looking likely from Northern New Jersey, down onto the Del-Mar-Va and into Maryland, through West Virginia. So that is the story for the precipitation side of things, now lets get to the temperatures that are looking likely after this heat wave.
By two weekends from now, cooler temperatures, mainly in the 60's and 70's will set in across the northeast. What is looking like to play it is a trough from Ontario up in Canada will likely dive south into the Great Lakes and northeast, reducing the temperatures significantly. In a way just kicking the heat out the door, or shoving back into the southeast US. Temperatures will likely range from the mid to upper 60's in Northern New England and Northern New York, and then lower 70's across Central and Southern New England, as well as Central and Southern, as well as Western New York. After that lower to mid 70's are expected to occur from the Appalachian Mountains in Western and Central Pennsylvania, to the Poconos. Lastly the mid to upper 70's are looking most likely in all of New Jersey, and on into Eastern PA and the Del-Mar-Va. Here is what I am describing in a map form, from the euro model.
Now this map could be under-doing the temperatures just a little, as the euro usually does. But I think overall you can kind of get the sense that cooler temperatures are on the way, but first we have to get through the heat wave. Now I keep on saying adjectives like cooler, and below normal. I really want to make you second guess those words because I said this a few weeks ago and to me, it almost sounds like I am saying it's going to be so cold you are going to need jackets. No, what I am trying to say is cooler than average temperatures are coming, out normals this time of year range from the mid 80's to the low 70's, of course depending on where you are located. After that, we have no good idea on how long these below normal temperatures are going to last, so don't get out of that summer mood! Thank you for reading and be sure to stay tuned to Northeast Weather Action for the latest weather forecasts and updates! Have a great weekend and enjoy that pool next week!
Monday, June 17, 2013
Tomorrow's Severe T-Storm Threats
Tomorrow will definitely not pack the magnitude and widespread nature of strong and severe thunderstorms as today, but there will still be a decent threat of storms. The area with the highest threat of strong to severe thunderstorms tomorrow will be from central Ohio and into southern Pennsylvania, then sliding over to the Jersey Shore. Damaging winds and small hail could be imbeded in severe thunderstorms, so watch out for the threat of that. this forecast also has futurecast radars for those who love graphics! Stay safe and have a great evening!
So How Cloudy Is The Northeast Compared To The Rest Of The US? Find Out!
This is a question you may have asked yourself many times when a cloudy and gloomy day is upon you. So here are the real answers to the interesting question. I found this dusty old NOAA chart from almost 20 years ago that likely has then answer. This map was generated by sunshine sensors which are located at almost every observations location. To summarize, it looks like our region here in the northeast is one of the cloudier areas across the country. Where mountain ranges are really determine the amount of sunshine, as you can clearly see for example the Appalachian Mountains in eastern West Virginia. But in the desert southwest, only around 3 out of 10 days have clouds in the sky. But in the Pacific Northwest, 8 out of every 10 days are cloudy. After that, storm tracks have to do somewhat with this forecast, because we see many storms here in the northeast and Great Lakes, more cloudy days are the result.
Here is the annual average amounts of precipitation across the lower 48, and as you can see, this map is somewhat coordinated with the map above.
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