Thoughts On 2014 Farmers Almanac Winter Outlook

          Here are my thoughts on this year's Farmers Almanac 2014 Winter Outlook. First of all whoever has not seen it yet, here is the summary. Cold, cold, and colder, this years Farmers Almanac Winter Outlook includes widespread below average temperatures thought all regions of the Lower 48. But the areas with the coldest temperatures (most below average), are located anywhere from the northern plains to the Great Lakes and into the northeast. For the rest of the country, mainly chilly conditions are what they expect for the upcoming winter.

          So lets go region-by-region, and I will express my opinion as well as compare their outlook to my newest one.

Northeast Region

          Farmers Almanac 2014 Winter Outlook: Bitterly Cold & Snow Filled for the majority of the area with Cold, Wet, and White Conditions in the south and New Jersey. Mainly just Cold and White because Southern PA, and New Jersey, as well as extreme Southern New England are all in northern areas of the Cold, Wet, and White section. So that is there prediction, now lets compare. Overall there outlook is similar to mine, I don't know if it will be bitter, but in my opinion the temperatures this winter will be below average. In my opinion, us here in the Northeast US will be about 15 - 30 inches above average from normal in terms of snowfall.

Southeast Region

          Farmers Almanac 2014 Winter Outlook: Chilly & Wet. I agree is some ways with their outlook but not completely. I do not think the Southeast US will be that chilly, but i do think they will see wetter conditions with more mountain snow than normal. I believe there could be temperature swings down in the southeast, and this really depends on whether the Southeast Ridge forms or not. If it does occur, the Southeast will generally have above average temperatures, of course effecting the overall winter turnout. So I think the Farmers Almanac 2014 Winter Outlook did an ok job for predicting the southeast, but I definitely have some disagreements. 

Great Lakes Region

   

          Farmers Almanac 2014 Winter Outlook: Biting Cold & Snowy. For this area of the United States, I think they did pretty well. I agree, it will be colder than normal in the Great Lakes region, maybe not Biting Cold, but it will be cold. Here comes the detailed part, lets get into snowfall expectations for the Great Lakes area. I predict about average lake effect snowfall. For the remainder of the area, I think there will be above average snowfall/precipitation in Illinois and Southern Wisconsin, but the rest of the area will be anywhere from average to possibly slightly above average snowfall.

North Central Plains Region

          Farmers Almanac 2014 Winter Outlook: Piercing Cold With Normal Snowfall. I now agree with this area the most out of any region. I think it will be cold in this area, maybe not piercing cold, but it will be cold n the northern central plains. I do think they will also see generally around average snowfall, but the extreme northern part of the northern part of the northern plains could be see slightly below normal snowfall. So I agree for the most part with their predictions, so I think they did an ok job!

South Central Plains Region 

          Farmers Almanac 2014 Winter Outlook: Frosty & Unusually Wet. For this area, I would say the Farmers Almanac did ok. With the frosty part, I think this is where they went overboard on the cold. I forecast average temperatures for the southern plains. Once again, I also predict that this area will have temperature swings, meaning sometimes it will be warmer and other times the area will see colder temperatures than normal. For precipitation, I agree with them with above average precipitation, but possibly not unusually. Overall as you have heard, I think the Farmers Almanac has a very extreme outlook for this winter.

Southwest Region:

          Farmers Almanac 2014 Winter Outlook: Cool With Near-Normal Precipitation. I agree mainly with this outlook, but have a few disagreements. I completely disagree with the cooler temperatures than normal part. What I predict is slightly above average temperatures, instead of below average. To hear why, just watch my new update of the winter outlook. Now for precipitation, I see above average precipitation in the Southwest US because I anticipate the southern stream to be active. This in which would prompt above average precipitation in the southwest, and really the southern parts of the southwest.

Northwest Region:

          Farmers Almanac 2014 Winter Outlook: Dry & Chilly. Lets start with the drier conditions they expect. What I predict is around average precipitation for the Northwest US. For the temperatures, I could agree with them, but really I predict the Pacific Northwest to see around average temperatures. I do think there are still some impotent factors/teleconnections that will determine whether the northwest and even the whole US sees above or below average temperatures/precipitation.

          So with everything I have said and what you now know about what the Farmers Almanac Predicts for the upcoming winter season, here is there official 2014 Winter Outlook!

          

       

Upcoming Pattern Could Lead To Long Term Cool Temperatures

          In the next several days, temperatures will remain about average, but as we head into next week, a new pattern is likely to set up that could but stubborn and last potentially quite a while. By the early part of next week, troughs will begin flowing down from Eastern Canada and effect the region. This will bring below normal temperatures to the Great Lakes and Northeastern United States for a quite a while because they will just continue to dip don into the area. There could be a day or two between jet stream/trough where we go back to average temperatures, but you won't have to wait long for another trough to find it's way down here.

          This is because of a few reasons, one if the NAO and AO are dropping negative, causing us to receive cooler temperatures and also because the high pressure system in the west in very persistent, and will likely not expand to grant us warm conditions like it recently did. Temperatures will likely be held to the 50's north and in the mountains to middle 60's in the south and lower elevations regions as highs. At night, temperatures could get into the 30's in the north and the 40's south, which is much below average from where we should be. Here is a map showing next week's weather pattern that could likely stick around for an extended period of time.

Tomorrow's Weather Forecast

          The past few days have been pretty quiet in terms of weather, except a few heavy bands of rain yesterday. But tomorrow will feature the best chance for the whole region to see some rain. On Wednesday we should should expect scattered thunderstorms across the region. Some of the storms could be a little on the strong side, so remember to bring that umbrella with you especially if you will be doing anything outside. Temperatures should be in the 70's and 80's region wide. So thanks for reading and have a great rest of your evening/day. Stay safe everyone!

A Significant Cool Down Possible In The Long Range

          In the seven days, temperatures will generally be around average, but after that comes a chance for some fall-like air. Several troughs look to dip down from Eastern Canada, and effect the Northeast and Eastern Great Lakes in the long range. All through some troughs may not be all that intense and only effect the extreme northeast portions of our area, others will have a significant impact on our temperatures and most likely make things feel a little bit more like fall, as mentioned earlier. So lets get a little bit more in depth of what I am trying to get at.

          In the beginning of September, or to be specific around September 2nd or 3rd, and intense trough could likely stretch down into the Eastern US, bringing temperatures as cold as the middle to upper 40's to the middle 50's at night throughout the area. For the daytime highs, temperatures will likely be held to only the upper 50's and lower 60's in the northern and in the mountains regions of the northeast, to the middle to upper 60's in the southern and Piedmont locations. Now keep in mind this is still very far out, but is most likely going to occur in some way or another.

          Temperatures are much easier to predict especially in this case, rather then precipitation. The duration of this cool down is still unknown and it's possible that it won't even get this cool, but who knows, it could get even cooler.. So really be sure to stay tuned to Northeast Weather Action because this forecast is for the longer range, and many details are still in question. Here is a model hour map indicating the cooler air, produced by the most recent euro which is one of our most reliable models, as some of you may know from previous posts/forecast. Thanks for reading and have a great rest our your day or night!

Wednesday's Severe Thunderstorm Threat Outline

        This summer has been much below average in terms of severe weather and in the foreseeable future, nothing looks to be that significant. For most people including me, this is a good thing, because here in the northeast, we are not big fans of. On Wednesday, there could be a threat of some strong thunderstorms, but it won't be any outbreak at all, and likely will not impact many people here in the northeast.

         Overall the summary is that scattered thunderstorms will be across the northeast region, especially Ohio, West Virginia, Western New York, and Western Pennsylvania. Some of these storms will be on the stronger side, and could produce strong winds in excess of 60 mph, cloud-to-ground lightning, and isolated small hail the size of quarters. Here is a map forecast detailed where your area is located on our exclusive Severe Thunderstorm Threat Index. Stay safe and have a great rest of your day!