Will There Be Severe T-Storms Tomorrow? Find Out!

          The past several days have been filled with threats for strong to severe thunderstorms. So will tomorrow be the same kind of thing? Well it really depends on where you exactly live. If you are in Ohio or New York, you don't need to be concerned, but if you are located in Eastern PA, most of New Jersey and on the central and western part of the Del-Mar-Va, you run into some small problems. This area is where some storms could turn on the strong side, so just keep an eye on the radar tomorrow! Also keep in mind of the flash flood threat because we have has lots of rain and a little to much in some places. Here is tomorrows severe thunderstorm forecast.  Be sure to stay tuned in to Northeast Weather Action for the latest weather forecasts and updates, have a great Friday night!

Updated 7 Day Rain Forecast - Keep The Umbrella Out

          Today and tomorrow will feature showers around the area with some heavier rain perhaps hanging around in New England. From Sunday into the majority of next week, several low pressure systems will produce significant amounts of rain throughout the region. So keep the umbrella out because you will need it again. With everything said, here is the precipitation forecast for the next 7 days. More rain is coming so as always stay right here at Northeast Weather Action for the latest weather forecast and updates! Have a great weekend!

Today's Severe Thunderstorms Threats - Nothing Like Yesterday

          Today there will be some isolated strong thunderstorms, but mainly more shower activity and a few embedded storms. Yesterday we had many flash flood warnings and several severe thunderstorm warnings, as well as even a few tornadoes in Pennsylvania. But that was yesterday, today is not expected to be anything close to that magnitude.

          Overall there is a low threat of strong to severe storms across the region with a moderate threat which is still not noticeable, in New Jersey and on the Del-Mar-Va. This is the area where some wind damage in storms are possible. So you don't have much to worry about when going to outdoor activities. Here is today's severe thunderstorm threats forecast, have a great day and stay tuned to Northeast Weather Action for the latest forecasts and updates on all northeast weather action!

Next Week's (June 30th - July 6th) Daytime Highs Forecast

          The temperatures during the daytime next week will be generally the same every day of the week. Highs should be in the 70's and 80's region wide with possibly some upper 60's in northern Maine.

Now Through Late Next Week's Rainfall Forecast : To Be Wet

       In the past few weeks, we have not had much rain across the region. In the next 7 days, several storms will give every area in the region a high chance of seeing a significant amount of rain. It's looking like the most rain will fall in Eastern Pennsylvania and Eastern New York, where around 4 - 5 total inches of rain is expected to fall in the next 7 days. In the next week, just about every other day an individual storm will arrive in the region just to soak areas that have all ready had a shower. So just how much rain are we in the northeast as a whole expecting, well here is the forecast for the next 7 day's rainfall all in one combined forecast.

Today's New Severe Thunderstorm Threats Forecast

         Today will likely be the worst day of the week when it comes in terms of strong to severe thunderstorms. There will likely be widespread thunderstorms especially in New York and Pennsylvania. The storms could pack damaging winds and very heavy downpours. Here is the updated forecast for the t-storm threats index.

Weekly Weather Update: Rainy Weather Is Down The Pipeline! See When and How Much!

          I take you through a few models to express the significant amounts of rain on the way for the northeast. We also take a quick look at the temperatures and overall the next 10 days in weather. Don't forget to like Northeast Weather Action on facebook!

Today's Updated Severe Thunerstorm Threats Index

          Today is going to have the same general threats as yesterday, but possibly an elevated threat level in some areas. Thunderstorms today are looking to be just as widespread as yesterday packing the threats of damaging winds, small hail, and cloud to ground lightning. The chance of tornadoes today is very low. The rest of the week could hold even higher probabilities for strong to severe thunderstorms so make sure you stay right here at Northeast Weather Action for the latest forecasts and updates, as there will be many. Here is today's updated severe thunderstorms threats index. Stay safe and have a great rest of your Tuesday! 

Severe Thunderstorm Watch Could Be Issued

Mesoscale Discussion 1218

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1218 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1122 AM CDT TUE JUN 25 2013 ..VT...PA...NERN OH...EXTREME NRN WV PANHANDLE. CONCERNING... AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NY .SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 251622Z - 251845Z ALLY ISOLATED/DISORGANIZED CONVECTIVE REGIME PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT SUMMARY...INIT IACROSS THIS AREA MAY INTENSIFY AND GROW IN COVERAGE DURING NEXT FEW HOURS PECIALLY ASSOCIATED WITH ANY AGGREGATED COLD POOLS -- AND ISOLATED OF DESTABILIZATION. MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE SPORADIC DAMAGING GUSTS -- E S/MRGL HAIL. DISCUSSION...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING NERN THROUGH NWRN PA...WITH COVERAGE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS FORE IN BROAD ARC OF WEAK TO NONEXISTENT MLCINH EVIDENT FROM CENTRAL NY SWWD ACROS SGOING AIR MASS CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE DIABATICALLY. ONE POTENTIAL GENESIS AREA FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION AND SHIFT EWD ACROSS HUDSON VALLEY...CENTRAL-ERN PA AND NERN OH...PR COULD BE LAKE-BREEZE BOUNDARIES...ESPECIALLY COMING OFF LE OVER NERN OH AND PA. AS THESE TRENDS CONTINUE IMARY STORM MODE SHOULD BE MULTICELLULAR...PERHAPS EVOLVING INTO SMALL BOWS WHERE ANY PRECIP-LOADING RELATED COLD POOLS CAN DEVELOP FOR TIONS VT...CONTRIBUTING TO PATCHWORK OF MLCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 1 FORWARD-PROPAGATIONAL PURPOSES. SFC DEW POINTS RANGE FROM MID-60S F OVER MUCH OF PA TO UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S ON OH AND ERN NY AND PO R000-2000 J/KG NEAR SFC MOIST AXES...GIVEN ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS OF INSOLATION-RELATED WARMING APPLIED TO RAOBS AND MODEL FCST SOUNDINGS. WEAK MID-UPPER PERTURBATION MOVING EWD ACROSS ERN VEL BOUNDARIES FOR FOCI...AT LEAST INITIALLY PRIOR TO ANY COLD-POOL ONT/WRN NY REGION ALSO MAY BE CONTRIBUTING DESTABILIZATION ALOFT VIA DCVA. LIMITING FACTORS FOR ORGANIZED SVR POTENTIAL INCLUDE 1. LACK OF ANY OTHER SUBSTANTIAL/SIGNIFICANT LOW-L EFORMATION... 2. WEAK SFC FLOW...LIMITING CONVERGENCE...AND 3. WEAK DEEP SHEAR ACROSS THIS ENTIRE AREA -- EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES ONLY 15-25 KT. ..EDWARDS/KERR.. 06/25/2013 ATTN...WFO...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ... 98 CLE... LAT...LON 45007198 43697257 42747326 41397471 40197642 40067830 40698095 41258229 41418187 41578145 41788093 42127989 42547906 42887870 43217759 43297656 43997618 44457580 44817531 44977472 45007 1

Tomorrow's Beach Forecasts

          Tuesday should be a pretty nice day for our regions beaches. Overall mostly sunny skies will be the ruler with some very isolated thunderstorms, that if happen will not ruin your beach day! Have a great Tuesday and stay right here for the latest severe thunderstorm updates, here are the forecasts!

Heat Wave's Forecast Highs

          Monday through Wednesday will likely be the hottest days overall throughout the area with highs topping out in the 80's and 90's region wide. Little or no rain is expected in the time period with possibly some pop-up thunderstorms because just of how hot it will be. On Thursday - Saturday, highs could still be looming around 90 from Southern Pennsylvania, and south. Here are the forecast highs for Monday - Wednesday.

All Around Weather Analysis - June 22, 2013

Severe T-Storm Index: 
Low Activity

A slight risk for strong to severe thunderstorms runs from Sunday through Wednesday. Minimal activity is expected and chance of impact on your area is low. From Thursday through next weekend, a slight - moderate risk exists for Pennsylvania. New Jersey, New York, as well as all of Southern New England. Isolated activity is possible with risk of impact low to moderate. Main threats: damaging winds in excess of 60 mph and small hail. Probability of a tornado: nearly 0%. Preparation activity needed is nearly nothing, normal thunderstorms could occur in this time period.

Heat Index:
Significant Activity

Slightly above average temperatures are expected throughout the course of the weekend with highs topping out from the 70's to the 80's region wide. A medium duration heat wave is anticipated starting Monday of next weekend, and stretching through midweek, ending Wednesday or Thursday, depending on location. Temperatures will range from 80's in the north to 90's in the south. Thursday - Saturday is expected to have dropping temperatures, about 2 degrees per day. Be sure to drink lots of water and remain hydrated when being exposed to high heat.

Precipitation Index: 
Low - Medium Activity

Little to no precipitation is expected from today - Sunday. an increased probability of precipitation will occur Monday and last into the mid to late week as instability is widespread through atmosphere. Maximum chance of precipitation in region: 30%. From Thursday - Saturday, a low pressure system will enter the Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Western New York area. Expected precipitation amounts range from a half an inch in the Northeastern tier on Pennsylvania to near an inch in Northwestern Pennsylvania. Maximum probability of rainfall at current point: 50%.

Drought Index: 
Low Activity

An abnormally dry time period with the lack of precipitation could lead to a lack of plant growth. No drought conditions are expected at this time in any part of the region. A relief is likely to come later next week. Area most at risk of below normal precipitation is in the lakes region on Central New York. Any change in forecast has a minimum chance of occurrence.

Tropical Index: 
Medium Activity

No tropical activity is expected to to the unfavorable upper and mid level wind conditions at this point, causing increased levels of shear across common tropical development region. Long range index includes an increased possibility for tropical development in the Caribbean. Probability of tropical entity forming in next 10 - 15 days remains around moderate. Keep informed on all development by keeping track of all National Hurricane Center updates and forecasts.

Long Range Lookout: What Will The Weather Be Like After The Heat Wave? Find Out!

          I'm sure by now you must of heard about the upcoming heat wave that will be sitting on the northeast. After that, little to no precipitation is expected to fall during this period, which could force you to use those sprinklers. But after the heat wave, what comes next? Well there are various answers to that question and so lets get started. The start of the long range lookout obviously starts after the heat wave passes on by. So lets use the golden tool to get the answer to that question, weather models. Lets start with the ecmwf model, or what we like to call the euro model. The euro model indicates a wetter and more active pattern along with below normal temperatures for this time of year starting the later part of next week. It shows storms one after another impacting nearly the same areas with rainstorms and overall has the whole region is below average in terms of temperatures.

          I would think you might want to figure out that area that could possibly receive significant amounts of rain. Well this region sits anywhere from Northern Ohio, through Western New York, and almost all of the state of Pennsylvania. Keep in mind, this area could easily be bumped around and that nothing is nailed in stone, or guaranteed yet. This like I said would be late next week, but the below normal temperatures wouldn't set in until about the weekend before the 4th of July. But lets get back to the precipitation part of this event and then later I will go more into detail about the upcoming temperatures. So going back to the models and how they continue to like a certain region to get the most rainfall. Here is the second rainstorm out of the two on the euro model.

          You can really see both storms pretty good in this model. First you see the exiting storm off of the Southern New England - Long Island Coastline. After that the second storm is mainly in Pennsylvania and about to enter New Jersey. Next you also notice Western New York receiving rain. Generally a good 1 to 2 inches of rain are possible from both storms combined anywhere from Central and Southern New Jersey, into all of Pennsylvania, as well as Northern Ohio and Western New York. And then around a half an inch to and inch of rain is looking likely from Northern New Jersey, down onto the Del-Mar-Va and into Maryland, through West Virginia. So that is the story for the precipitation side of things, now lets get to the temperatures that are looking likely after this heat wave.

          By two weekends from now, cooler temperatures, mainly in the 60's and 70's will set in across the northeast. What is looking like to play it is a trough from Ontario up in Canada will likely dive south into the Great Lakes and northeast, reducing the temperatures significantly. In a way just kicking the heat out the door, or shoving back into the southeast US. Temperatures will likely range from the mid to upper 60's in Northern New England and Northern New York, and then lower 70's across Central and Southern New England, as well as Central and Southern, as well as Western New York. After that lower to mid 70's are expected to occur from the Appalachian Mountains in Western and Central Pennsylvania, to the Poconos. Lastly the mid to upper 70's are looking most likely in all of New Jersey, and on into Eastern PA and the Del-Mar-Va. Here is what I am describing in a map form, from the euro model.

          Now this map could be under-doing the temperatures just a little, as the euro usually does. But I think overall you can kind of get the sense that cooler temperatures are on the way, but first we have to get through the heat wave. Now I keep on saying adjectives like cooler, and below normal. I really want to make you second guess those words because I said this a few weeks ago and to me, it almost sounds like I am saying it's going to be so cold you are going to need jackets. No, what I am trying to say is cooler than average temperatures are coming, out normals this time of year range from the mid 80's to the low 70's, of course depending on where you are located. After that, we have no good idea on how long these below normal temperatures are going to last, so don't get out of that summer mood! Thank you for reading and be sure to stay tuned to Northeast Weather Action for the latest weather forecasts and updates! Have a great weekend and enjoy that pool next week! 

Expected High Temperatures During Height Of Heat Wave

          With the first official heat wave possible for areas as far north as New England, this event will give you a warm welcome to summer, literally. A heat wave is an event with three or more 90 degree days in a row, and this is possible from Monday through Thursday of next week. So get ready for the heat and the sun will also be out. Barely no rain is expected during this period. Possibly some pop-up thunderstorms are possible just because it is going to be so hot! Here is the forecast map for how hot the northeast will get!

Today's Weather Forecast

          With the weekend approaching. weather will be comfortable across the northeast. With highs generally in the 70's and 80's, with nothing falling from the sky, you should be good to go for all outdoor plans. Have a great day and don't forget to take advantage of today's temperatures before the heat wave rolls in! Here are today's highs . . .

Weekly Weather Update

Find out what kind of weather is on the way here in the Eastern US, is a heat wave on the way for the beginning of summer? Find Out Don't forget to like Northeast Weather Action on facebook!

So How Cloudy Is The Northeast Compared To The Rest Of The US? Find Out!

          This is a question you may have asked yourself many times when a cloudy and gloomy day is upon you. So here are the real answers to the interesting question. I found this dusty old NOAA chart from almost 20 years ago that likely has then answer. This map was generated by sunshine sensors which are located at almost every observations location. To summarize, it looks like our region here in the northeast is one of the cloudier areas across the country. Where mountain ranges are really determine the amount of sunshine, as you can clearly see for example the Appalachian Mountains in eastern West Virginia. But in the desert southwest, only around 3 out of 10 days have clouds in the sky. But in the Pacific Northwest, 8 out of every 10 days are cloudy. After that, storm tracks have to do somewhat with this forecast, because we see many storms here in the northeast and Great Lakes, more cloudy days are the result.

          Here is the annual average amounts of precipitation across the lower 48, and as you can see, this map is somewhat coordinated with the map above.

 

7 - 14 Day Temperatures Forecast

          As the first third of June has been average to even slightly below average in terms of temperatures, some summer heat is finally on the way. Only eight days until summer and it will certainly feel like summer from the 22nd through the 29th.

New Thoughts On Wednesday Night - Friday Morning Rain Event

          Yesterday parts of the region received moderate rain all day, like in New England. Meanwhile other sections of the region like Northern Maryland, dealt with tornadoes. Today scattered showers and thunderstorms will be throughout the area. Don't forget about last week's rain from what was Tropical Storm Andrea, or the remnants of it. So with all of this rain, can we possibly expect more. After all, cities like New York City are having one of the top 10 wettest June's of all time, and we are only a third of the way into the month.

          This answer to the previous question is yes, do to the active pattern that is constantly tracking storms through the Midwest and Ohio Valley, straight into the Northeast. Now lets get to details on this rainstorm. Showers and thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon across Western PA and New York, as well as Central and Northern Ohio could be severe, with possibly a derecho, which is a long line of severe thunderstorms that cause widespread amounts of damage. This name might seem very familiar to you. It would at around this time last year, two derechos swept through Ohio and from Harrisburg, PA to Richmond, Virginia. These prompted long lasting power outages. Which did not mix the the heat wave we experienced shortly after derechos.

          After Wednesday, a low pressure system will approach the region Thursday Morning, shortly after, still likely during Thursday Morning, the storm system will push into Northern Ohio and into Western PA. Heavy is likely to fall, especially on the northern side of the system, which is being indicated on the new models. This. is causing the forecast to change drastically and could still go either way, and could just be a trend that could change. After the rainfall moves into Western PA and Western New York, it will move into Eastern New York as well as Central and Eastern Pennsylvania by around the early afternoon hours on Thursday. 

          The system is actually looking pretty intense, being forecasted a 997 MB storm in Southeastern PA. When Friday Morning rolls around, the area of low pressure will likely be around Long Island, or just south of it. The rain extent should reach up through Southern New England and into Central New England. Now the southern end of the rain is still more out there, or unknown. On the model I am about to show you, you will see what I am talking about. Here is the new 00z GFS for late Thursday Night, with the low centered in Southeastern PA.

          As you can see, it's clear the majority of the rainfall produced by this storm in on the northern side of the system. This is the variable that still has many possibilities but is now becoming more certain. Many models are now showing this solution, so the forecast has changed greatly and looks to be holding throughout the most recent model forecasts. Keep tuned into Northeast Weather Action for the latest rainfall forecasts on this storm. Also stay here because many more storms are coming our way, take my word when I say that. For now I will leave you with the new rainfall forecast for Wednesday Night through Friday at around of just before noon. Thanks for reading!

This Evening - Tuesday Night Final Rainfall Totals Forecast

          Here is the final forecast for rainfall totals expected from tonight trough Tuesday Night. This is now looking like it will be a heavy rain event with minor flooding possible around creeks and streams. As well as urban and suburban street flooding. The heaviest rainfall is expected to fall in southwestern New England and int Southeastern New York. Sorry but it looks like tomorrow will be a day to forget about for summer lovers and possibly as well as Tuesday, especially in Northern New Jersey into Southern New England. Stay tuned to Northeast Weather Action for the latest alerts on this storm as well as forecasts for the many more rainy times we will have in the next several weeks!