Preliminary 2013 - 2014 Winter Outlook

I take you in depth on the preliminary winter outlook and go through the factors that have effects on winters. Find Out what you could see for this winter! Please like Northeast Weather Action on facebook! Also visit http://newxaction.blogspot.com/ !

2013 - 2014 Winter Outlook Release Dates

Early Thoughts For The 2013 - 2014 Winter Season

          Click Here To See The Newest Winter Outlook

          As we finish up this winter and head into spring and summer, we have had everything from record warmth to frigid temperatures and intense snowstorms. Now we head into the summer in just over a month, and it's already the middle of May. So yes, we already have early thoughts on next winter. Now keep in mind, these are very preliminary thoughts and could easily be turned around completely, but this is what we think could possibly play out for the winter of 2013 - 2014. If you have heard of the ENSO, this stands for the El Nino - Southern Oscillation. To summarize this factor, waters of the western side of the South American coast fluctuate from warm to cold, if you don't know the location I am exactly talking about, here is a map showing the area.

          Now that you know where this region is, lets go a little more in depth, the seas surface water temperatures dictate greatly whether an El Nino or a La Nina will occur. If the water is warm in the region, it will be an El Nino. If the water is cold, it will be an La Nina. Now you might have thought, what if the water is warm, but now that warm compared to if the water is very warm. Well if the water is barely cold or warm, it's a weak El Nino / La Nina. Now if the water were to be pretty warm, but not very warm and not barely warm, then it is called a moderate El Nino / La Nina. Lastly, if the water is very warm or cold, then a strong El Nino / La Nina will happen. These facts are the basics to learning this impotent region.

          For this winter, it looks either some sort of La Nina will form, or a weak to moderate El Nino. Now how I think one of these events could happen are based on the current actions of the sea surface temperatures in this region and the model guidance for the future on this area. Now lets start with the current conditions in this region. In March through the middle of April, warm waters took over the area and formed a weak - moderate El Nino. But this didn't last long because now the warm waters are beginning to vanish from the area. Especially right around the coastal regions, the cold waters of a La Nina are starting to take over. Here is a graphic from the CPC showing the past water of the region.

          Now when I look at this map, the one thing that really stands out to me is how the oranges representing the warm waters are really receding from the area close to the coast and now only the light yellow and white colors remain. After that, another thing that stands out is the warm waters off central America, this does not greatly impact the El Nino / La Nina pattern very much, but is sometimes a site with a growing La Nina. So if you were to only base your forecast on the graphic, you would most likely predict a La Nina. But this is not the only graphic that shows current information. Another is this table that represents the El Nino / La Nina movement in the past leading up to the present.

          This is pretty much just showing the same information, just on a graph. The La Nina also easily seen emerging on this survey called the Anomalies. Now the last graphic I wanted to show you about current information relevant to the emerging La Nina is the very recent, weekly movement of the seas surface water temperatures. This map your about to see really shows you the cold water that is taking over the region, and could stay and build, but it also could eventually leave in time for the winter, keep in mind that it's only May, and we still have a few months until we will have a better idea for what will happen with the ENSO, so here is the graphic and then we will take about the future of the region, and I will show you a model for the El Nino / La Nina forecast.

          For this outlook information, things could get a little advanced for the average person, so just hang in there. The models show a weak El Nino occurring for the first part of this winter, possibly becoming moderate in the second half of next winter. Now I don't want to get into exacts because we are so far out, but that is what the models are indicating at this point in time. Now the more known models like the ECMWF and the CMC both show a weak to moderate El Nino. But the confidence on the outlook is not great at all and this forecast has a pretty good chance of being off. If you want to see exactly where I am getting this information from, here is the graph showing the model spreadsheet. The second graphic down shows you really how much uncertainty is in this very preliminary outlook.

          Another thing you can see is that the neutral winter that we just exited from will most likely not be with us next winter, and that is that thing I am most confident on. Now I know you are wondering this, what happens with an El Nino / La Nina in play, what are the effects on the US? Well because we are possibly looking at a weak to moderate El Nino, here are the effects of a weak to moderate El Nino. There is normally a high just south of Alaska that forces the jet stream north over that high and then the jet stream skips the western US and dives down into the eastern United states. Causing mild temperatures in the northwest and north central US and colder temperatures on the east coast. 

          After that, there is normally a region in the southwest, in California and western Arizona is wetter then normal and the southeast and east coast is also normally west. Most often, the southeast has lots of rain and the northeast is snowy because of the above average moisture on the east coast and the cold air. But if we were to have a strong El Nino, which is not likely, but there would be almost the opposite, but that is not likely to occur. Now here is a map showing the impacts on the US when there is a weak to moderate El Nino.

          These thoughts are my preliminary thoughts but there is still much more to be determined like temperatures and precipitation. Once again, take this outlook with half a grain of salt because anything that I said could change, so don't plan on everything that I said playing out. I should have my next update on the winter outlook sometime in late June, which will be my preliminary 2013 - 2014 Winter Outlook, but the things you have just read are my early thoughts for the 2013 - 2014 winter season. Come back in late June for my preliminary outlook. But as always tune into Northeast Weather Action for the latest weather forecasts and outlooks. Thanks for reading!

Official 2013 Summer Outlook

BONUS POST:

 

Midweek Mess

Sunday Morning - Monday Night Snowfall Forecast Amounts

Snowfall Area's From Thursday - Monday

SUNDAY NIGHT – TUESDAY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION FORECAST

Sunday Night - Tuesday Night Preliminary Snowfall Forecast

Preliminary Forecast For March 19th - 21st Storm

Very Preliminary Forecast Scenario Graphic For March 19th - 21st POSSIBLE Storm

NEW ENGLAND SNOWSTORM SNOWFALL FORECAST

MONDAY - THURSDAY SNOWFALL FORECAST

New Forecast For Wednesday - Thursday Storm, Not as Bad As You Think Northeast Snow Lover's

          As today's model runs take the Wednesday - Thursday storm to the south, my forecast has changed slightly, I hope all of you took the map yesterday with a grain of salt, because this storm is very tough and it is still far out. Also there are still many factors that will impact where this storm tracks and who it effects. Also the wave of low pressure is not even on land so the best models runs will be when this storm gets on land in the north Pacific, which will likely come sometime tomorrow of Monday, so Mondays model runs will give us a lot better idea of what will occur with this event. At this point the area of the northeast that has the highest or best chance of seeing snow is West Virginia, Maryland, southern Pennsylvania, and southern New Jersey. This area of snow could go north, or even south. At this point there is still much uncertainty and take what I am saying here with a grain of salt, because this storm could go either way.

          But the models are just flipping, the GFS model overall has the storm going south because it has a weak low pressure system in southeast Canada. I really don;t see this low in southern Canada occurring. Also the trough that will be coming down impacts if this storm goes up the coast or not. If you want snow then you want this trough to come later because the models today have the storm coming earlier and the trough already being in place and to set up to send this storm up the northeast coast. So just because the models have been saying yes, then no, really both are just guesses because this storm is not even on land, so there is barely information being sent into the models. See how the models predict storms / events is stations around the world send current data and conditions to models like the GFS and the ECMWF, and then what the models do is create a plot for the events using the sent current information. But sense the storm or wave is not even on and land, there are not many stations that can even collect data to send into the models, so at this point that is why I am saying the models are pretty much guessing at this point right now.

         So this map you are about to see is not going to be that accurate because of what I am saying. I am about to show you a few AccuWeather forecasts maps I like and my forecast map. So here are they and then i will have more of my thoughts on each map with this possible storm.

          So in the first map you see the risks for this storm, however if this storm were to travel further north, the risks would go further north. I really don't see those risks going any more south then they are in the specific forecast map. Now in the second map down which is also provided by AccuWeather.com shows a high being in southern Canada, this is scenario 1, I don't see this happening because of the high pressure that will be up towards Greenland, that will likely help grab this storm and throw it up the coast. So that map is likely to not occur. Also I was talking about the possible low in Southeast Canada that could keep this storm pushed down south of us, well this low could help us in a way, of its strong enough it could pull this whole storm slightly further north, but I don;t even see the Canada low there, so throw both scenarios of that out the door.

          So now in the third map down there is scenario number 2. This scenario shows there being no high in southern Canada and the low goes ENE and spreads heavy snow into the whole south portion of Pennsylvania, all of New Jersey, and southern New England. I actually see this situation occurring because once again I really don't see a high pressure are being centered right over southeast Canada. So there is still some uncertainty and this storm could go either way. Now the last map, the fourth map down, is North Weather Actions map showing where the snow could fall if this storm goes in the middle, so it pretty much shows the percent chance area's have at seeing snow. As you can see the further east the storm goes, the less sure I am in the forecast. Next you see the area with the question marks, that is the area where the snow would fall combined with the other area's if the low takes a northern track. However if the storm tracks on the scenario 2 forecast map track, then places in southern Virginia would likely not receive snow. So in general there is still some uncertainty with this storm and I will have constant updates on this event so keep it here at Northeast Weather Action.

Wednesday - Thursday Snowstorm?

 As we are coming close to the end of winter, we likely have one last storm to track. The models have been up and down with this storm today but the models are in general agreement that this storm will effect the northeast. Next you should know is today is really the first day the models have indicated this storm being a major event for us, the models yesterday and a few days ago showed a southeast storm with minimal effects to us. But if you like snow, the models look to be trending towards a big snowstorm Wednesday - Thursday.
Here are the summary's of the different models and what they said today.

00 GFS: Minimal effects to Pennsylvania and New Jersey, to Massachusetts, storm glides to the south and strengthens off shore.

12Z GFS: Major snowstorm occurs with heavy snow accumulations to area's south of Concord, New Hampshire, and less snow at the coast.

00Z EURO: Large snowstorm to area's north of DC and with 12" + snowfall totals in Pennsylvania to Massachusetts.

12Z EURO: More south with the storm with significant accumulations to the south. Highest snowfall in southern Pennsylvania with 6 inches possible.

CMC:  Disruptive snow to the area. All snow with large accumulations.

JMA: Big snowfall and cold temperatures as far south as DC.

Here are some snowfall accumulations being indicated by the models. This event is still far out, and there is still uncertainty with snowfall.

00Z GFS SNOWFALL:

12Z GFS SNOWFALL:

00Z EURO SNOWFALL:

12Z EURO SNOWFALL:

HERE IS MY SNOWFALL AREA'S VERY PRELIMINARY FORECAST MAP:

Low Pressure Snow Totals For Central PA

Tuesday - Wednesday Snowfall Accumulation Forecast Map

Tuesday - Wednesday Winter Storm

          Yet another winter storm will impact the northeast midweek. The storm will come over from the Midwest after it nails the central plains with historic snowfall and likely a blizzard in Kansas. When the event gets into our neck of the woods, it will bring significant snowfall accumulation to some area's. The storm will be made up of two different pieces. One piece will fly north of our area into Canada with some effects to us and the other piece of energy will come from a secondary low pressure system that will track through DC, Baltimore, Philadelphia, and New York. So if you live in or between those area's, you can't expect to see much snow because your area will be too warm in part because of the track of this low and also because the Atlantic warm air will invade these places and ruin their snow chances for this event. But in places like State College, Pennsylvania and Syracuse, New York, you will get snow, and yes, I will have to say it again, southern and central New England is likely to receive yet another significant dose of heavy snow midweek. The precipitation could start as rain in places such as Pittsburgh and area's below 1000 feet in elevation across the West Virginia, Pennsylvania, and New York mountains.

          The precipitation should arrive as plain old rain in the I - 95 corridor middle - late day Tuesday. The moisture should arrive in eastern New York, eastern Pennsylvania, and New Jersey late Tuesday afternoon as well. Once again places below 1000 feet will most likely have rain except in locations north of Albany, where the precipitation type should be all snow. In interior New England, the moisture should arrive on Tuesday evening, as coastal area's of New England will see the moisture later in the evening or around Midnight on Wednesday. The precipitation will continue through the overnight hours and into Wednesday before ending midday Wednesday or Wednesday evening from southwest to northeast. The only time period of the storm that area's above 1000 feet will have to worry about precipitation type is the midday hours on Wednesday, as a mix could overspread the lower mountains of Pennsylvania and New York. Overall the event will be disruptive as significant snowfall amounts are possible and looking likely.

          It is even possible some ice could occur in southern Pennsylvania, but this is looking unlikely. Plan for travel delays and / or school delays or closings across the impacted area's in our region of the US. So if you are wonder about total snow accumulations for this specific storm, here is a preliminary map of my predicted snowfall amounts in the Northeast United States region.

          Once again there is still some uncertainty with the exact track of this system, which would really impact the possible snowfall totals in places like south central Pennsylvania, where at this point not much snowfall accumulation is looking possible due to the track and like I said the warm air that will bring up the temperatures across southern Pennsylvania and New Jersey, as will as the south coast of New England and the New York City area. But for this event across Pennsylvania and the southern tier of upstate New York, your elevation will likely make a large implication on how high (or low) your snowfall accumulation will likely turn out to be.

          After this event it looks to get slightly warmer for Thursday, but then a large area of cold air will approach and come into our region bringing the temperatures below average to start off March, and though likely the entire part of early March, so I wouldn't give up just yet if I lived from DC to New York, as some storms look possible during this time period with cold air. I will have more in that in another update coming soon, or go to the 8 - 14 day outlook tab, which is where I posted an article on the cold air to start off March for all of the northeast, but for now, I would focus your attention on this event, especially if you are traveling in some way in the likely high impacted area's from this storm. I will have more updates in this winter storm leading up to it, but for now stay safe and check back to Northeast Weather Action or more updates in this event and many other events.

48 Hour Snowfall Totals Forecast Map + Pennsylvania 24 Hour Ice Accumulation Forecast Map

NOTE:  THESE SNOWFALL TOTALS COULD BE LOWER. THE NEW 00Z NAM SHOWS THIS STORM BEING FURTHER OFF THE COAST WITH MINIMAL AFFECTS TO NEW ENGLAND.

Possible Snowstorm Totals For Friday - Sunday Storms Combined