New Forecast For Wednesday - Thursday Storm, Not as Bad As You Think Northeast Snow Lover's

          As today's model runs take the Wednesday - Thursday storm to the south, my forecast has changed slightly, I hope all of you took the map yesterday with a grain of salt, because this storm is very tough and it is still far out. Also there are still many factors that will impact where this storm tracks and who it effects. Also the wave of low pressure is not even on land so the best models runs will be when this storm gets on land in the north Pacific, which will likely come sometime tomorrow of Monday, so Mondays model runs will give us a lot better idea of what will occur with this event. At this point the area of the northeast that has the highest or best chance of seeing snow is West Virginia, Maryland, southern Pennsylvania, and southern New Jersey. This area of snow could go north, or even south. At this point there is still much uncertainty and take what I am saying here with a grain of salt, because this storm could go either way.

          But the models are just flipping, the GFS model overall has the storm going south because it has a weak low pressure system in southeast Canada. I really don;t see this low in southern Canada occurring. Also the trough that will be coming down impacts if this storm goes up the coast or not. If you want snow then you want this trough to come later because the models today have the storm coming earlier and the trough already being in place and to set up to send this storm up the northeast coast. So just because the models have been saying yes, then no, really both are just guesses because this storm is not even on land, so there is barely information being sent into the models. See how the models predict storms / events is stations around the world send current data and conditions to models like the GFS and the ECMWF, and then what the models do is create a plot for the events using the sent current information. But sense the storm or wave is not even on and land, there are not many stations that can even collect data to send into the models, so at this point that is why I am saying the models are pretty much guessing at this point right now.

         So this map you are about to see is not going to be that accurate because of what I am saying. I am about to show you a few AccuWeather forecasts maps I like and my forecast map. So here are they and then i will have more of my thoughts on each map with this possible storm.

          So in the first map you see the risks for this storm, however if this storm were to travel further north, the risks would go further north. I really don't see those risks going any more south then they are in the specific forecast map. Now in the second map down which is also provided by AccuWeather.com shows a high being in southern Canada, this is scenario 1, I don't see this happening because of the high pressure that will be up towards Greenland, that will likely help grab this storm and throw it up the coast. So that map is likely to not occur. Also I was talking about the possible low in Southeast Canada that could keep this storm pushed down south of us, well this low could help us in a way, of its strong enough it could pull this whole storm slightly further north, but I don;t even see the Canada low there, so throw both scenarios of that out the door.

          So now in the third map down there is scenario number 2. This scenario shows there being no high in southern Canada and the low goes ENE and spreads heavy snow into the whole south portion of Pennsylvania, all of New Jersey, and southern New England. I actually see this situation occurring because once again I really don't see a high pressure are being centered right over southeast Canada. So there is still some uncertainty and this storm could go either way. Now the last map, the fourth map down, is North Weather Actions map showing where the snow could fall if this storm goes in the middle, so it pretty much shows the percent chance area's have at seeing snow. As you can see the further east the storm goes, the less sure I am in the forecast. Next you see the area with the question marks, that is the area where the snow would fall combined with the other area's if the low takes a northern track. However if the storm tracks on the scenario 2 forecast map track, then places in southern Virginia would likely not receive snow. So in general there is still some uncertainty with this storm and I will have constant updates on this event so keep it here at Northeast Weather Action.