Hazardous Weather Outlook
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 106 PM EST SUN MAR 3 2013 MDZ001-OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069-PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023- 029-031-073>076-WVZ001>004-012-021>023-041-041815- GARRETT-TUSCARAWAS-CARROLL-COLUMBIANA-COSHOCTON-HARRISON- JEFFERSON OH-MUSKINGUM-GUERNSEY-BELMONT-NOBLE-MONROE-MERCER-VENANGO- FOREST-LAWRENCE-BUTLER-CLARION-JEFFERSON PA-BEAVER-ALLEGHENY- ARMSTRONG-INDIANA-WASHINGTON-GREENE-WESTMORELAND-WESTMORELAND RIDGES- FAYETTE-FAYETTE RIDGES-HANCOCK-BROOKE-OHIO-MARSHALL-WETZEL-MARION- MONONGALIA-PRESTON-TUCKER- 106 PM EST SUN MAR 3 2013 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN MARYLAND...EAST CENTRAL OHIO...NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA...SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA...WEST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND NORTHERN PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. $$ 07
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 107 PM EST SUN MAR 3 2013 PAZ010>012-017>019-045-049>052-058-041815- ELK-CAMERON-NORTHERN CLINTON-CLEARFIELD-NORTHERN CENTRE- SOUTHERN CENTRE-SOUTHERN CLINTON-UNION-SNYDER-MONTOUR-NORTHUMBERLAND- SCHUYLKILL- 107 PM EST SUN MAR 3 2013 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A POTENT STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A MODERATE SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE IN CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. THE ONSET OF THE SNOW WOULD LIKELY BE TUESDAY EVENING OR TUESDAY NIGHT. POTENTIAL SNOWFALL TOTALS FROM THIS STORM WILL LIKELY VARY GREATLY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...BUT THE AMOUNTS ARE STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. PLEASE MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS FOR UPDATES AT WEATHER.GOV/STATECOLLEGE .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. $$
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 107 PM EST SUN MAR 3 2013 PAZ024>028-033>036-056-057-059-063>066-041815- CAMBRIA-BLAIR-HUNTINGDON-MIFFLIN-JUNIATA-SOMERSET-BEDFORD-FULTON- FRANKLIN-PERRY-DAUPHIN-LEBANON-CUMBERLAND-ADAMS-YORK-LANCASTER- 107 PM EST SUN MAR 3 2013 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A POTENT STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A HEAVY SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA. THE ONSET OF THE SNOW WOULD LIKELY BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. POTENTIAL SNOWFALL TOTALS FROM THIS STORM WILL LIKELY VARY GREATLY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...BUT THE AMOUNTS ARE STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. PLEASE MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS FOR UPDATES AT WEATHER.GOV/STATECOLLEGE .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. $$ DANGELO/LAMBERT/TYBURSKI
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 1253 PM EST SUN MAR 3 2013 MDZ003>005-009-010-501-502-VAZ025>031-036>040-042-050-051-501>504- WVZ050>053-055-501>506-041000- WASHINGTON-FREDERICK MD-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-HOWARD- EXTREME WESTERN ALLEGANY-CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALLEGANY-AUGUSTA- ROCKINGHAM-SHENANDOAH-FREDERICK VA-PAGE-WARREN-CLARKE-NELSON- ALBEMARLE-GREENE-MADISON-RAPPAHANNOCK-LOUDOUN-ORANGE-CULPEPER- NORTHERN FAUQUIER-SOUTHERN FAUQUIER-WESTERN HIGHLAND- EASTERN HIGHLAND-HAMPSHIRE-MORGAN-BERKELEY-JEFFERSON-HARDY- WESTERN GRANT-EASTERN GRANT-WESTERN MINERAL-EASTERN MINERAL- WESTERN PENDLETON-EASTERN PENDLETON- 1253 PM EST SUN MAR 3 2013 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA... NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA...AND CENTRAL AND WESTERN MARYLAND WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GARRETT COUNTY. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE ALLEGANY HIGHLANDS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA FOR A PERIOD BETWEEN LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. RAIN OR SNOW AT THE ONSET IS FORECAST TO CHANGE TO ALL SNOW LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED. WHILE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW AND LOCATION OF THE RAIN-SNOW LINE REMAINS RATHER HIGH...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL. PLEASE MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS FOR UPDATES. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. $$
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 1253 PM EST SUN MAR 3 2013 ANZ530>543-DCZ001-MDZ006-007-011-013-014-016>018-VAZ052>057- 041000- CHESAPEAKE BAY NORTH OF POOLES ISLAND MD- CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM POOLES ISLAND TO SANDY POINT MD- CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SANDY POINT TO NORTH BEACH MD- CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NORTH BEACH TO DRUM POINT MD- CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM DRUM POINT MD TO SMITH POINT VA- TIDAL POTOMAC FROM KEY BRIDGE TO INDIAN HEAD MD- TIDAL POTOMAC FROM INDIAN HEAD TO COBB ISLAND MD- TIDAL POTOMAC FROM COBB ISLAND MD TO SMITH POINT VA- PATAPSCO RIVER INCLUDING BALTIMORE HARBOR- CHESTER RIVER TO QUEENSTOWN MD-EASTERN BAY- CHOPTANK RIVER TO CAMBRIDGE MD AND THE LITTLE CHOPTANK RIVER- PATUXENT RIVER TO BROOMES ISLAND MD- TANGIER SOUND AND THE INLAND WATERS SURROUNDING BLOODSWORTH ISLAND-DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-NORTHERN BALTIMORE-HARFORD- SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-CHARLES-ST. MARYS- CALVERT-PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX- ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-STAFFORD-SPOTSYLVANIA- KING GEORGE- 1253 PM EST SUN MAR 3 2013 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MARYLAND PORTION OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY...TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER...AND ADJACENT COUNTIES IN CENTRAL MARYLAND AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA AS WELL AS THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM FOR THE WATERS. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH THE REST OF TONIGHT FOR THE MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT MONDAY FOR THE WATERS. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES MONDAY NIGHT FOR THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER AND MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA FOR A PERIOD BETWEEN TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING RAIN OR SNOW...GUSTY WINDS...AND POSSIBLY COASTAL FLOODING. UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW AND LOCATION OF THE RAIN-SNOW LINE REMAINS RATHER HIGH SO PLEASE MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS FOR UPDATES. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE WATERS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. GALES ARE POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. $$
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 523 AM EST SUN MAR 3 2013 INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046- 051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-041030- WAYNE-FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-FRANKLIN IN-RIPLEY-DEARBORN-OHIO- SWITZERLAND-CARROLL-GALLATIN-BOONE-KENTON-CAMPBELL-OWEN-GRANT- PENDLETON-BRACKEN-ROBERTSON-MASON-LEWIS-HARDIN-MERCER-AUGLAIZE-DARKE- SHELBY-LOGAN-UNION OH-DELAWARE-MIAMI-CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-MADISON- FRANKLIN OH-LICKING-PREBLE-MONTGOMERY-GREENE-FAYETTE OH-PICKAWAY- FAIRFIELD-BUTLER-WARREN-CLINTON-ROSS-HOCKING-HAMILTON-CLERMONT-BROWN- HIGHLAND-ADAMS-PIKE-SCIOTO- 523 AM EST SUN MAR 3 2013 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL INDIANA...SOUTHEAST INDIANA...NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...NORTHERN KENTUCKY...CENTRAL OHIO...MIAMI VALLEY OF OHIO...SOUTH CENTRAL OHIO...SOUTHWEST OHIO AND WEST CENTRAL OHIO. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER LOW AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO AFFECT THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME...THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM. THE TYPE AND AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE STORM TRACK. LATEST INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE PRECIPITATION ON TUESDAY WILL BE A MIXTURE OF SOME RAIN AND SNOW. THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOW ACCUMULATIONS NOW LOOKS TO BE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. $$
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 423 AM EST SUN MAR 3 2013 WVZ032-035>040-046-047-040930- TAYLOR-RALEIGH-FAYETTE-NICHOLAS-WEBSTER-UPSHUR-BARBOUR-POCAHONTAS- RANDOLPH- 423 AM EST SUN MAR 3 2013 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA...NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. HEAVY WET SNOW IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THEN DIMINISH TO LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IF THE THREAT OF HEAVY WET SNOW INCREASES...WINTER STORM WATCHES WOULD BE POSTED FOR THE MOST VULNERABLE COUNTIES. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. $$
Sunday, March 3, 2013
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOKS
Saturday, March 2, 2013
NEW MODELS TRENDING NORTH AND SHOWING MORE SNOW INTO PENNSYLVANIA AS WELL AS WEST VIRGINIA AND VIRGINIA, HERE THEY ARE!
NEW 00Z GFS PRECIPITATION MODEL: FURTHER NORTH
NEW 00Z GFS SNOWFALL MODEL: FURTHER NORTH
NEW 00Z NAM, FIRST STORM NAM MODEL WITH STORM ON EAST COAST, FUTHER NORTH PRECIPITATION:
00Z CMC: FURTHER NORTH: PRECIPITATION
New Forecast For Wednesday - Thursday Storm, Not as Bad As You Think Northeast Snow Lover's
As today's model runs take the Wednesday - Thursday storm to the south, my forecast has changed slightly, I hope all of you took the map yesterday with a grain of salt, because this storm is very tough and it is still far out. Also there are still many factors that will impact where this storm tracks and who it effects. Also the wave of low pressure is not even on land so the best models runs will be when this storm gets on land in the north Pacific, which will likely come sometime tomorrow of Monday, so Mondays model runs will give us a lot better idea of what will occur with this event. At this point the area of the northeast that has the highest or best chance of seeing snow is West Virginia, Maryland, southern Pennsylvania, and southern New Jersey. This area of snow could go north, or even south. At this point there is still much uncertainty and take what I am saying here with a grain of salt, because this storm could go either way.
But the models are just flipping, the GFS model overall has the storm going south because it has a weak low pressure system in southeast Canada. I really don;t see this low in southern Canada occurring. Also the trough that will be coming down impacts if this storm goes up the coast or not. If you want snow then you want this trough to come later because the models today have the storm coming earlier and the trough already being in place and to set up to send this storm up the northeast coast. So just because the models have been saying yes, then no, really both are just guesses because this storm is not even on land, so there is barely information being sent into the models. See how the models predict storms / events is stations around the world send current data and conditions to models like the GFS and the ECMWF, and then what the models do is create a plot for the events using the sent current information. But sense the storm or wave is not even on and land, there are not many stations that can even collect data to send into the models, so at this point that is why I am saying the models are pretty much guessing at this point right now.
So this map you are about to see is not going to be that accurate because of what I am saying. I am about to show you a few AccuWeather forecasts maps I like and my forecast map. So here are they and then i will have more of my thoughts on each map with this possible storm.
But the models are just flipping, the GFS model overall has the storm going south because it has a weak low pressure system in southeast Canada. I really don;t see this low in southern Canada occurring. Also the trough that will be coming down impacts if this storm goes up the coast or not. If you want snow then you want this trough to come later because the models today have the storm coming earlier and the trough already being in place and to set up to send this storm up the northeast coast. So just because the models have been saying yes, then no, really both are just guesses because this storm is not even on land, so there is barely information being sent into the models. See how the models predict storms / events is stations around the world send current data and conditions to models like the GFS and the ECMWF, and then what the models do is create a plot for the events using the sent current information. But sense the storm or wave is not even on and land, there are not many stations that can even collect data to send into the models, so at this point that is why I am saying the models are pretty much guessing at this point right now.
So this map you are about to see is not going to be that accurate because of what I am saying. I am about to show you a few AccuWeather forecasts maps I like and my forecast map. So here are they and then i will have more of my thoughts on each map with this possible storm.
So in the first map you see the risks for this storm, however if this storm were to travel further north, the risks would go further north. I really don't see those risks going any more south then they are in the specific forecast map. Now in the second map down which is also provided by AccuWeather.com shows a high being in southern Canada, this is scenario 1, I don't see this happening because of the high pressure that will be up towards Greenland, that will likely help grab this storm and throw it up the coast. So that map is likely to not occur. Also I was talking about the possible low in Southeast Canada that could keep this storm pushed down south of us, well this low could help us in a way, of its strong enough it could pull this whole storm slightly further north, but I don;t even see the Canada low there, so throw both scenarios of that out the door.
So now in the third map down there is scenario number 2. This scenario shows there being no high in southern Canada and the low goes ENE and spreads heavy snow into the whole south portion of Pennsylvania, all of New Jersey, and southern New England. I actually see this situation occurring because once again I really don't see a high pressure are being centered right over southeast Canada. So there is still some uncertainty and this storm could go either way. Now the last map, the fourth map down, is North Weather Actions map showing where the snow could fall if this storm goes in the middle, so it pretty much shows the percent chance area's have at seeing snow. As you can see the further east the storm goes, the less sure I am in the forecast. Next you see the area with the question marks, that is the area where the snow would fall combined with the other area's if the low takes a northern track. However if the storm tracks on the scenario 2 forecast map track, then places in southern Virginia would likely not receive snow. So in general there is still some uncertainty with this storm and I will have constant updates on this event so keep it here at Northeast Weather Action.
Friday, March 1, 2013
Wednesday - Thursday Snowstorm?
As we are coming close to the end of winter, we likely have one last storm to track. The models have been up and down with this storm today but the models are in general agreement that this storm will effect the northeast. Next you should know is today is really the first day the models have indicated this storm being a major event for us, the models yesterday and a few days ago showed a southeast storm with minimal effects to us. But if you like snow, the models look to be trending towards a big snowstorm Wednesday - Thursday.
Here are the summary's of the different models and what they said today.
00 GFS: Minimal effects to Pennsylvania and New Jersey, to Massachusetts, storm glides to the south and strengthens off shore.
12Z GFS: Major snowstorm occurs with heavy snow accumulations to area's south of Concord, New Hampshire, and less snow at the coast.
00Z EURO: Large snowstorm to area's north of DC and with 12" + snowfall totals in Pennsylvania to Massachusetts.
12Z EURO: More south with the storm with significant accumulations to the south. Highest snowfall in southern Pennsylvania with 6 inches possible.
CMC: Disruptive snow to the area. All snow with large accumulations.
JMA: Big snowfall and cold temperatures as far south as DC.
Here are some snowfall accumulations being indicated by the models. This event is still far out, and there is still uncertainty with snowfall.
00Z GFS SNOWFALL:
12Z GFS SNOWFALL:
00Z EURO SNOWFALL:
HERE IS MY SNOWFALL AREA'S VERY PRELIMINARY FORECAST MAP:
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